Donald Trump has had one of the quickest rises and falls in the history of Presidential politics. Last month we found him leading the Republican field with 26%. In the space of just four weeks he's dropped all the way down to 8%, putting him in a tie for fifth place with Ron Paul.
Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney are at the top of the GOP race with 19% and 18% respectively. Newt Gingrich and Sarah Palin are further back at 13% and 12%, followed by Trump and Paul at 8%, Michele Bachmann at 7%, and Tim Pawlenty at 5%.
As Trump got more and more exposure over the last month Republicans didn't just decide they weren't interested in having him as their nominee- they also decided they flat don't like him. Only 34% of GOP voters now have a favorable opinion of Trump to 53% who view him in a negative light.
Trump really made hay out of the 'birther' issue and as the resonance of that has declined, so has his standing. In February we found that 51% of Republican primary voters thought Barack Obama was not born in the United States. Now with the release of his birth certificate only 34% of GOP partisans fall into that camp, and Trump's only in fifth place with that now smaller group of the electorate at 9%.
Beyond the Trump angle the other thing particularly notable in these numbers is that they confirm Romney and Huckabee starting to pull away from Gingrich and Palin. Most of our polling over the course of 2010 basically showed a four way tie at the top with that quartet of contenders but over the last few months a clearer divide has started to show up in both our state and national polling with Huckabee and Romney more consistently outpolling Gingrich and Palin.
We also looked at a fair number of alternate Republican universes in which various candidates don't actually end up making the race. With Trump out Romney leads Huckabee 21-20 with Gingrich at 15% and Palin at 14%. With Trump and Huckabee out Romney is tops at 24% to 20% for Gingrich, 17% for Palin, and 12% for Paul. With Trump and Palin out Huckabee has the advantage with 24% to Romney's 22%, and Gingrich's 20%. And with none of Trump, Huckabee, and Palin running Romney gets 28% to 26% for Gingrich, 12% for Paul, and 11% for Bachmann.
To put that in a simpler form if Huckabee runs it's between him and Romney right now, and if Huckabee doesn't run it's between Romney and Gingrich right now. And there's plenty of time for other folks to work their way into that mix.
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Questions or Comments?
44 comments:
good. he is worthless and not a conservative
Obama timed the release of his long form brilliantly.
And this surprises no conservatives, but confounds the liberals. Film at eleven!
Fickle, desperate Republican voters.
Trump's quick rise & fall shows how desperate they are to latch onto anyone... anyone but the exceedingly terrible field that the Republicans have out there right now.
I'm feeling very good about Obama's chances in 2012 right now.
There's still political space for a Trump-like candidate to take off, someone who'll appeal to the paranoiac hysteria and anti-Obama sentiment of the 34% who still think Obama wasn't born here. Those voters are now divided almost evenly, but Trump topped Huckabee and Palin 37-13 with them last time. So there's room to make up a lot of ground by appealing to that base...and I mean base. Could be Bachmann or Palin, both of whom have twice as much support from the remaining birthers as the non-birthers.
Any poll that doesn't include Herman Cain, declared candidate and winner of the South Carolina Republican Primary is Racist.
It shows how much the regular run of the mill GOP primary voter has ZERO clue on what they actually want. Trump is about as far from the tea party and GOP as one can get. I hope he gets in, he will fall even further.
A shortcming of this reporting on the poll (not the poll itself) is that, in discussing birthers, it only includes the 34% who take the hardest position--those who flat-out say Obama wasn't born in the U.S. Reading the pdf of the results, however, reveals that an additional 18% of Republicans say they aren't sure he was born in the U.S.. Those are birthes, as well. Even after the release of the long-form, birtherism is still a majority proposition in the GOP.
" Any poll that doesn't include Herman Cain, declared candidate and winner of the South Carolina Republican Primary is Racist."
What do you expect from racist, racebaiters?
There time is a coming. And it is going to be excruciating. I intend to make it miserable for them. Over the top. Heck, I am an atheist and would even vote to make the Bible the Supreme Law of the Land if it would make Obot hypocrites miserable.
They asked for it and they are going to get it X 100000000.
the birth certificate controversy is mostly due to bad reporting. Hawaii has a different process than many states. PA would not accept my certificate of live birth when I went to get my drivers' license so the idea that even his long form says CERTIFICATE OF LIVE BIRTH across the top could be confusing. PA license center told me my certificate of live birth was like a souvenir that hospitals gave to parents and that I had to go get my actual birth certificate. My mother gave me my certificate of live birth saying, "here, you might need your "birth certificate"". There are two questions not mentioned by the media, 1 is the constitution states the president must be a natural born citizen, but not how proof is taken care of. 2) that Hawaii gives out a certificate of live birth when you ask for your birth certificate. I could see anyone who had to produce their "birth certificate" instead of "certificate of live birth" getting confused and thinking there was something funny going on.
People are just voicing their momentary opinions right now. As the election gets closer, people will start to get serious, and I think they're waiting for a viable contender to come forward, someone who can persuade them that he (or she) can do right by the country. I don't think anybody ever thought Trump was a serious choice, despite the fact that they liked what he was saying.
Trump is not a Republican.
Huckabee is a big government Republican who wants to use the government to enforce his values on others.
President Obama should be easy to beat but if the Republicans want to try and impose a big government type on us I would rather have any liberal including Obama. I dislike how the liberals bankrupt the country and interfere but the big government Republicans are even worse.
Huckabee is probably one of the few Republicans Obama can beat.
@Iron Man, I hope all you progressives continue to feel that way....nothing for you to worry about...the Republicans have no chance at all...You can tell that obama agrees with you just by the way he acts...that's probably why he has a billion dollar campaign coffer, Why he is spending more tax payer money than every president we ever had COMBINED after complaining about Bush's spending!It's probably why, when he is tanking in the polls, he suddenly finds osama, how convenient! It's why is he not closing gitmo, not prosecuting the terrorists in civilian court, not getting out of Iraq, Afghanistan and is in Libya I'm sure it's why hasn't he come up with an immigration bill in 3 years (when he promised it in the first)...just a few of the many reasons he has nothing to worry about in 2012....cause progressive marxists like you don't care about being lied to!
As a Trump myself, I feel that Donald has really done it this time. I would never vote for him.
I will vote for Donald Trump. Obama is horrible and every one who knows photoshop knows the Birth Certificate is FAKE look it up.
With Trump effectively out, that leaves a great opportunity for an independent with classic fiscal conservative/social moderate credentials to appeal to both D and R voters... like a Ross Perot type.
Does Bill Gates want to be President?? How about Martha Stewart?
I'm only half joking.
Donald Trump is a self-made man who worships his own creator. I think that President Obama's actions in ridding the world of bin Laden VS Trump's bullying and loud-mouthing with nothing to back him other than being on a hit television non-reality show got people thinking about what qualities they want in a president. The more thoughtful candidates among Republicans seem to be stepping to the fore: Romney and Huckabee.
At this moment, I don't care if the president was born on Mars, his bringing to a close an awful chaptewr in the hisptry of our nation is laudable and his demeanor through it all was admirable. Being told basically you don't exist even after producing a birth certificate is somethying monirities have been facing since before the birth of our nation.
Not mentioned in the synopsis: Favorability vs Unfavorability, where Huckabee blows everyone away, including Romney 37% to 23%. Stop searching for the answer that's right in front of your nose. Huckabee IS the best choice. Huckabee WILL defeat Obama. Huckabee 2012!
34% of GOP supporters still believe that Obama wasn't born in America, despite releasing his birth certificate. That says a lot about what kind of rational thinking goes on in the GOP now.
Trump is just a show pony with a big mouth, his arrogance is breathtaking to say the least..he has nothing to offer the American people.
The last person you guys want as President would be the Trumpster!
Hmmmm....that birth certificate in the long form is even more suspicious. Obama's mother's race is listed as caucasian....His father's race is listed as "AFRICAN"....African was not considered a race in early sixties America....Negro or Black would have been stated...this is a copy of the original....LMFAO....the United States was not PC in 1961...the idiots that created that birth certificate are so brainwashed with political correctness they couldnt bring themselves to use the "N" word on the forged certificate...LMFAO
I see this as good news for the GOP.
The Republicans have just had their Dean-style flameout of the season--and it's still 2011.
Whereas Dean imploded in the midst of the 2004 primary, leaving the Democrats scrambling to find a viable candidate and finally settling on the unimpressive John Kerry, the Republicans now have plenty of time to look for a replacement for their Once-ler.
BTW, it would be worthwhile to include Herman Cain in all your polls from now on.
He seems intent on declaring, and he was recently declared winner of the "first 2012 Republican primary debate" (which, admittedly, most of the big names skipped out on).
Show me Huckabee's birth certificate!
I LOVE this cast of anachronistic, intellectually stilted, cartoon characters the GOP has given us! It's going to be a laugh a minute!! I cannot WAIT for the debates; they are sitcoms!!
May I ask why Herman Cain was omitted from the poll?
THE ONLY MAN THAT CAN SAVE YOUR COUNTRY IS RON PAUL...
"His father's race is listed as "AFRICAN"....African was not considered a race in early sixties America....Negro or Black would have been stated..."
Negro or Black are words for African-Americans. Obama's father was AFRICAN. Like, from the continent Africa.
That said, I wish the republicans would hurry and up decide on a serious candidate who can actually force the democrats to reign in spending without this ridiculous temper-tantrum-in-the-middle-of-the grocery-store parade of showmanship Boehner and the Tea Party are doing.
Trump is a huge joke!
Obama period is not so good.It is a long held and false assumption that ordinary citizens don't care about public policy.
Ron Paul 2012!
The only ones who keep the Birth issue alive is Democrats. You guys keep on with your over confidence. Obama will go down and for one reason and one reason only, its the Economy Stupid. Bush 1 had 90% approval after first Gulf War and was beat by an out of no where candidate - Bill Clinton - who concentrated on the Economy issue. This issue will make or break Obama. Everyone can say anthing they want, but when it comes time for voting in 2012 and people think the economy is on the wrong track, Obama will be a one term President.
I like a lot of his ideas but when he kept using the F word in his speach he lost my support.
The last thing we need in the culture war is to have the President of the United States dropping F bombs in the State of the Union Adress.
Obama's release of a birth certificate raised more questions than it answered IMO. It seems alot of people still misrepresent and misunderstand the "birther" argument/position. It's not just about where he was born but whether Obama is CONSTITUTIONALLY eligible to hold the office of the U.S. Presidency. Yes, it all started from questions about if he was actually born in the U.S. because if not, that would be a "slam dunk" (not to mention, he kept hiding it!!). Apparently he, the mainstream media, and people on the fence about it are satisfied A bc release takes care of the whole spectacle. But that's not "the end" by any means and the bc released answers, (or brings more into question...however you want to look at it) the actual larger "birther" point and that is, he's as ineligible as Borat. What about the founding father's (and many constitutional scholars) understanding of "Natural Born Citizen" (born in the U.S. of U.S. citizens)? The bc proves he at best has dual citizenship. What about the mounting evidence that the document released is a forgery/fake? Even if it is real, and I don't think it is, what does all the money spent suppressing this information, sending a decorated military officer to jail, and demonizing any U.S. loving citizen for even asking say about this man's character? His "who are YOU to question me?", "I'm not accountable to you" attitude. We have to get back to the U.S. constitution and Holy Bible (as even a professed atheist posted on here) of which it and our other founding documents and law were based upon to have any chance of restoring this country's greatness!! We were only great because the God we (an overwhelming majority anyway) trusted in (the God of Abraham, Isaac, and Jacob mentioned in the Bible that is) is Great! Ever since the early 60's when He was kicked out of the public domain, it's been downhill ever since!
Trump rose like a hot air balloon and sank like a lead one. Hooray, but it reflects badly on Republicans. They, however, are blaming the media for giving Trump too much airtime, instead of looking in the mirror. Note to Anon 1:39--you need to look in that mirror. It wasn't the media's fault that you didn't understand about Hawaiian birth certificates. That info was available to anyone with independent thinking ability. Try to develop some.
James wishful thinking no Repub. can beat obama noway no how it's not going to happen obama 2012
If he's at all smart, he will drop the Republican party and run as an independent. People are sick and tired of both Republicans and Democrats and I bet making this type of move would help him.
"What about the founding father's (and many constitutional scholars) understanding of "Natural Born Citizen" (born in the U.S. of U.S. citizens)?"
The founding father's would have understood that to mean only WHITE "Natural Born Citizens," as blacks of any kind were not considered citizens regardless of if they were born here to parents who were born here. Is that the point you're trying to make? Why not just admit that you, and other birthers, can't tolerate the idea of a black man being president because that's not what the founding father's meant and put the issue to bed. SIX other Presidents had at least one foreign born parent. Why aren't any birthers causing a ruckus over the constitutionality of their presidencies?
That is because he proudly boasted that if it weren't for him, Obama would never have produced his "birth certificate"....I think this was a publicity stunt pulled with him in cahoots with Obama...Trump didn't care about the fact that Obama is not a natural born citizen, and, therefore, not eligible to serve as president, and, also, Trump said he was going to inspect the document, and I never heard anything more about it....That document has been shown before a couple of years ago and was proven a fake, but Obama figured the public had forgotten, and he was right....
"Why not just admit that you, and other birthers, can't tolerate the idea of a black man being president because that's not what the founding father's meant and put the issue to bed."
I am a black man. None of my comments had anything to do with race. If what you say is what the founding fathers' intended, then, considering the time(s), I'd guess they wouldn't have had an issue specifically stating that. But since they didn't, I'll give them the benefit of the doubt and consider there must be some other explanation than the liberal incitement garbage concerning the whole "3/5 of a person" thing I imagine you're alluding to. "We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness" doesn't sound to me like the INTENT and/or meaning was to prevent or promote any one particular race over another from being eligible for president. People that play the race card are some of the most racist people I've ever encountered and it's sad that race has to be injected into anything anyone says contrary or negative to/about Obama. It is those people that fail to grasp and realize "the dream" of MLK.. "that men would not judge each other on the color of their skin, but by the content of character..". I couldn't care less what color the president is and not ONE of my objections to Obama and his agenda has anything to do with the color of his skin but they ALL have to do with the content of this man's character.
What a shame.
It looked for a second as though you might have candidate in the US who wasn't in thrall to the boneheaded "progressive" consensus that has so ravaged us here in Europe, and who could actually talk common sense without ridiculous hedging of his every viewpoint.
But no instead you're going to stick with the great "progressive" charlatan and "hope" monger, Osama, sorry Obama. Enjoy you're welfare dependents, and you're new classes of traitors in your midst, all courtesy of "progression". We love them over here in Europe, fantastic.
This just goes to show you that like telemarketers, there's only so much Donald Trump that one can tolerate before there's an outcry for him to get the hell out of there: http://lawblog.legalmatch.com/2011/05/06/finally-putting-an-end-to-telemarketers/
No herman Cain? What's the deal?
Most those others haven't even announced they are running. Is it because he's black?
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