Thursday, August 18, 2011

Kasich/SB 5 numbers

John Kasich and Senate Bill 5 are both still unpopular: but neither is as unpopular as it was 3 months ago.

50% of Ohioans say they would vote to reject Senate Bill 5 if the election was today, to 39% who would vote to accept it. Those are encouraging numbers for pro-labor interests but when we last polled the state in May 55% of voters say they were against the bill to only 35% in favor of it. So the trendlines at least are working in favor of the bill remaining as law.

Democrats (69/21) are more in favor of rejecting the bill than Republicans (58/29) are of accepting it. But independents have moved from 52/40 opposition to it in May to 46/44 support for it now.

The odds are still stacked against SB 5 staying enacted but just like we saw in the Wisconsin recalls the anger is not there at the same level it was during the spring, which has to be a slight cause of concern for those working to reject it.

John Kasich remains one of the most unpopular Governors in the country with a 36/53 approval rating. The only one we've polled this year with worse approval numbers is Florida's Rick Scott. Still Kasich's numbers represent a slight improvement from May when he was at 33/56. That's mostly attributable to Republicans rallying around him- they've gone from 58/28 approval to 67/21. He continues to have basically no support from Democrats- an 11/80 spread- and with independents he mirrors his overall numbers at 36/52.

Despite the small improvement in Kasich's approval numbers he would still lose a hypothetical rematch to predecessor Ted Strickland by a wide 54-39 margin. Democrats are having a rough August nationally but when you see those numbers it's still a reminder that we're a long way away from the political climate of 2010.

Perhaps the worst finding for Kasich on our poll is this: by a 41-31 margin Ohio voters think ousted Ohio State football Jim Tressel is a more 'ethical and honest' person than their Governor. This despite the fact that Tressel has been found to have repeatedly lied about various issues surrounding his program.

Full results here


Anonymous said...

That is assuming that the SB5 repeal is on the ballot. Last I heard, Kasich knew that it was at risk, so he was negotiating a compromise with the group that gathered the signatures for repeal. He is tucking tail and trying to save what he can of his beloved bill as well as his potential for reelection.

JPNewJersey said...

Why so little independents? According to 2008 exit polls, independents made up 30% of the vote, but here you have them at 22%?

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