Tuesday, August 16, 2011

Sentiment moving against Walker recall

Public sentiment in Wisconsin is moving against a recall of Scott Walker. Walker though remains very unpopular and if Russ Feingold chose to run against him in a recall election he would find himself in deep trouble.

50% of Wisconsin voters generally oppose a recall of Walker, compared to 47% in favor. Those numbers are flipped from our last statewide poll, in May, which found 50% generally in support of a recall and 47% in opposition. The overall switch comes because independents have moved from slightly in favor of removing Walker from office (50/47) to slightly opposed (46/50) and because 94% of Republicans now oppose recalling Walker, up from 89% on the last poll.

It's not that Walker has become popular all the sudden. His approval rating is still a pretty bad 45/53. Independents disapprove of him by a 44/53 margin. Democrats are more unified in their dislike of him (93%) than Republicans are in their support (87%). But I think there's a certain segment of voters in Wisconsin- somewhere around 10% of the population- that is generally opposed to the concept of recalls regardless of how they feel about how things are going in the state. We've seen that in the State Senate recalls so far- the polls have universally moved in the closing days in favor of the incumbents, both Democratic and Republican. When folks get off the fence they're tending to vote anti-recall.

For all that Walker could still be in pretty big trouble though. Russ Feingold would lead him 52-45 in a recall at this stage, taking independents by a 53-43 margin. Despite his defeat last year in an election marked by very low Democratic turnout, Feingold remains decently popular in the state with a 49/43 favorability rating.

Democrats may be dependent on a Feingold candidacy to win though. In May Tom Barrett led Walker 50-43 in a hypothetical rematch of their contest last fall, but now Barrett's advantage is only 48-47. Given the way sentiment has moved against recall in the closing days of these elections I don't think Barrett would beat Walker if he started with only a one point lead. And Walker already has the advantage over two other Democrats that have been mentioned as potential candidates- 47-44 over former Congressman David Obey and 46-43 over sitting Congressman Ron Kind.

A Walker recall is certainly doable, but it's not going to be easy by any stretch of the imagination regardless of his continued poor polling numbers.

Nationally both Democrats and Republicans claimed victory in last week's recall elections: Republicans because they maintained control of the State Senate and Democrats because they picked up two seats they hadn't been able to win even in the wave election of 2008. When it comes to Wisconsin voters though there's a more stark contrast in reactions. Republicans are pleased with the results by a 73/13 margin. Democrats are unhappy with the results by a 17/64 spread. Clearly for Democratic voters in the state it was a majority or bust.

Full results here


I Am Iron Man said...

Dems need to play this smart and get the recall vote to coincide with the Presidential election vote. Obama voters will vote out Walker.

Anonymous said...

YEAH for Walker!!! What the lame stream media conveniently fails to mention, is that Walker's policies have worked!!! Even Milwaukee has seen over a million bucks in savings, though Barret won't give Walker the credit!!! School districts all around the state are now able to go out and get multiple bids for health insurance, something that wasn't possible when the unions required that the school district buy health insurance through the union controlled provider. The unions may push for a Walker recall, but there is a VERY strong silent majority in WI!!! The unions will fail and Walker will stay as our governor!!!

smiling said...

President Obama's favorable/unfavorable percentages in the RealClearPolitics average is 43.5/50.3

This is far worse than Governor's ratio (50% favorable, 47% unfavorable). Based on your logic in this post about recalling Governor Walker in Wisconsin - am I to conclude that you favor a recall of President Obama?

Anonymous said...

please...Please....PLEASE try to recall Gov Walker. It would be just another loss for the libs and would tie up tens of millions of union $'s.

The WI economy is doing far better than that of the US. NO way Walker looses.

Anonymous said...

"Obama voters will vote out Walker. "

If there are any left by then.

Anonymous said...

This would concern me, if not for the woeful bias PPP shows in polls that have no electoral consequence (i.e. no way to prove their accuracy by having an election). I simply don't believe you when you say Feingold would defeat Walker. Feingold had his hat handed to him less than a year ago, Walker has withstood every broadside from the left and is still strong.

Anonymous said...

I Am Iron Man: the flaw in your thinking is to believe there will be a massive turnout for Obama voters next November. Ain't happening. Wisconsin has moved noticably to the right and Obama is less popular in WI than Walker.

NMS said...

yeah his polling is almost as bad as Obama's. Not quite though.

dunce said...

Within 6 months the democrats will be claiming credit for the balanced budgets made possible by Walker.Lies are their stock in trade.

Anonymous said...

Prior to becoming governor, Walker was the County Executive in Milwaukee County. He ran three very successful campaigns where he creamed his opponent. Please keep in mind Milwaukee County is very liberal. His constituents loved him because:

1. He does what he says he will do keeping his word with the tax payers
2. He is a fiscal conservative and treats the taxpayer money like his own
3. He dug the county out of a very series hole which was left by previous liberal executive

Once his reforms hit stride in 2012 and Wisconsinites realize economically WI is doing great (far better than other states and the Fed), most will enthusiastically suppot him. This is exactly what happened in Milwaukee County.

Keech said...

How does this crow taste Daily Kos readers?

You have a reckoning coming in November of next year. Americans will no longer submit to your lectures and you'll be driven back to East Village and Haight Ashbury where your failed policies can drive you into welfare nation.

Anonymous said...

Expect a recall election, but it's unlikely that Feingold will be in it. Politicians can come back from losing a reelection, but losing again on the next try would likely mean a permanent retirement. The numbers are going Walker's way, and unless they change a great deal for the worse before Walker is eligible for recall, then it's going to be too risky for someone like Feingold to run. I'm betting on a pro forma recall with a minor Democrat, or perhaps a few minor Democrats, competing.

Anonymous said...

"...if Russ Feingold chose to run against him in a recall election he would find himself in deep trouble."

Yeah, Feingold is so popular he voluntarily gave up his Senate seat. Oh, wait, he got voted out of office, didn't he?

Naman said...

I see that the crazy Republicans/teabaggers have invaded this thread today. Sorry about that, PPP.

Walker may be doing a great job keeping his mouth shut for now, but if he's on the recall ballot in November 2012, he's a goner. Wisconsin isn't really trending red, as everyone here claims it is.

By the way, Keech, no one is eating crow. We won two seats, (and 5 out of 9 recalls, following tonight), and will have Dale Schultz in our column.

Blue Wisconsin.

Dustin Ingalls said...

All you folks coming over here from Hot Air...you're sure full of the apropo title of your home blog.

wt said...

Democrats won't recall Walker because they read PPP polls and see it's not a good idea. It's expensive and likely to fail, unless you can get Feingold to jump in, which he won't. And once the effort fails, Walker can claim vindication regarding his collective bargaining policies.

So why would Democrats do something willfully foolish?

Anonymous said...

"So why would Democrats do something willfully foolish?"

Well, they dumped millions of dollars of union dues to have zero net effect on the legislative makeup of a supposedly blue state.

Do you put that in the "smart" category?

Anonymous said...

If those 'rat screwballs want to waste more money to show how extremist they are, then I hope they do have the recall vote on election day.
BO is not going to carry Wisconsin again.

Morgan said...

wt - Since when have Democrats NOT done anything willfully foolish? This is the party that thought it was a good idea to spend a year focused on Obamacare in the middle of a major economic crisis.

Terry Ott said...

No doubt Russ Feingold has a very loyal following, and I think he was an engaged and engaging Senator --- who misjudged how serious the "anti-incumbent" sentiment had become, and how popular a non-politician would be to voters around WI.

That said, why would people visualize him being an effective governor, an executive-like job, not a legislative position? Seems it would be pretty easy to portray him as a big-government sympathizer, big spender type with a legal background, not a leadership one.

If Democrats have no one who can point to an executive record of at least moderate success, they won't look particularly appealing among political independents like me.

Todd Dugdale said...

These wingnuts also told us that the Democrats would be recalled because WI voters were so outraged over them "fleeing the State".

None of them were recalled.

Maybe these guys don't have their fingers firmly on the pulse of public opinion.

Anonymous said...

So, sure, the dems won a few new seats. I'm not sure how the libs on this blog can claim this as some kind of victory...... 24 to 35 MILLION dollars was spent on these recalls. The state capital was INUNDATED with loyal union sympathizers, and--let's face it--thugs. And yet, AND YET, the recalls didn't change the balance of power in the state Senate. It FAILED. MILLIONS of dollars was WASTED. Yeah, Unions, go ahead and keep spending that money on stupid ideas. If I'm a union member I'd be calling up DEMANDING to know why the heck union leaders are wasting that kind of money on stupid boneheaded stuff.

Anonymous said...

After the millions of Union dollars wasted, the millions of taxpayer dollars wasted, all the crying, whining and childish behavior by the local and national Unions..... the Unions still control nothing.

Dustin Ingalls said...

"Well, they dumped millions of dollars of union dues to have zero net effect on the legislative makeup of a supposedly blue state."

Uh, they netted two seats, and both were districts McCain won even when Obama won the state by a double-digit margin. BTW, WI is not in play at the presidential level next year. And all that spending is a great dry run for organizing the state next year. Walker awoke a sleeping giant. The state as a whole is a little tired now after all the frenzy, but WI has moved leftward since 2010, not rightward. It's hard not to, since the turnout was so Republican-heavy, basically the only reason Walker won in the first place.

Anonymous said...

"They netted two seats, and both were districts McCain won even when Obama won the state by a double-digit margin."

Err ... not quite, DustinIngalls. Dean Kapanke's seat in SW Wisconsin went for Obama by more than 20 points in 2008 -- it's a true blue district no matter how you look at it.

The other seat the Dems won was due to a GOP incumbent with recently revealed major personal flaws (like living outside the district with his mistress). He wouldn't have survived in the next election anyway.

I think if the Dems had simply gotten the recalls on the ballot and then NOT SPENT ANOTHER DIME on the campaigns, they'd have won those two seats anyway. So a massive waste of money.

... kind of like the money the Dems have wasted on the stiumulas package as well, huh?

Moral of the story: Don't trust your money to the people who can't manage it well ... don't trust your money to the Dems.

Web Statistics