Tenth Congressional District Poll: Patrick McHenry is in trouble

Today Public Policy Polling released the results of a poll conducted in August and then again this week about the 10th Congressional District race. The results clearly show voters becoming more ambivalent about Patrick McHenry's job performance over the last four months and open to the possibility of electing someone else in 2008.

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Patrick McHenry is handling his job as Congressman?

	August	December
Approve	53	44
Disapprove	32	32
Undecided	15	24

While McHenry's disapproval numbers have remained static the number of people approving of his performance has declined 9%. It seems that allegations of misconduct by both McHenry and his staff are causing voters in his district not necessarily to disapprove of him but to be more wary of the job he is doing.

In 2008 Patrick McHenry will be running for a third term as Congressman. If the race were today would you vote to reelect Patrick McHenry or would you choose someone else?

	August	December
Reelect McHenry	55	45
Someone else	34	36
Don’t know	11	19

In August a solid majority of respondents in McHenry's district said they would vote to reelect him. Since then the number of people definitively saying they would do so has declined from 55% to 45%, with the number of people unsure going from 11 to 19%.

Daniel Johnson, a conservative Democrat and 31-year-old prosecutor from Hickory, who was awarded the Navy and Marine Corps medal after losing both of his legs while saving the life of a fellow sailor, is challenging Patrick McHenry. If the election were today, who would you vote for?

	August	December
McHenry	47	39
Johnson	32	32
Don’t know	21	29

Since Daniel Johnson got into the race there has been a significant uptick in the number of voters who are undecided about who they will vote for. This shift has been particularly strong among Republican voters. In August 17% of Republican respondents were undecided about who they would vote for. That number is now up to 28%. It is likely that since announcing his candidacy the contrast between Johnson's background as a prosecutor and military hero has been more appealing to many Republican voters than McHenry's life in politics. But they're still Republicans and hesitant to support a Democrat. Daniel Johnson can be successful if he can convince those undecided Republicans to cross party lines.

Full results here.

Transit Poll: other interesting crosstabs

Not surprisingly, Democrats are more supportive of new funding sources for mass transit than Republicans are. But Republicans are not as unfriendly to it as you might think.

73% of Democrats supported some new form of revenue, compared to 16% who did not think there should be any new money for mass transit projects.

For Republicans the numbers were 47% in favor of one of the three funding options presented with 45% opposed to any new money. There is a significant gap between Democratic and Republicans responses but I would have expected a majority of Republicans in the Triangle to be opposed to new transit funding.

There was a significant gender gap in the results as well. While only 22% of women opposed any new funding sources for transit projects, 36% of men were.

Full results here.

Transit Poll: the county by county numbers

Not surprisingly, Orange County residents were the most supportive of mass transit among the people we polled followed by Durham County residents and Wake County residents.

On the question asking respondents which of three modes for funding transit they would choose or whether they would not spend any more money for transit the results came out:

Orange

Vehicle registration fee increase and odometer tax 35%
Sales tax 21%
No new money for transit 19%
Gas tax increase 17%

So the spread was 73%-19% in support of doing something.

Durham

Sales tax 33%
No new money for transit 30%
Vehicle registration fee increase and odometer tax 21%
Gas tax increase 9%

The spread was 63% to 30% in support of some new money for mass transit.

Wake

No new money for transit 30%
Vehicle registration fee increase and odometer tax 27%
Sales tax 23%
Gas tax increase 10%

60% to 30% in support of new taxation for mass transit.
______________________________________
When asked an up or down question on whether they would support a half cent sales tax for transit like the one in Charlotte, residents of all three counties were supportive:

Orange

Yes 68
No 23

Durham

Yes 55
No 40

Wake

Yes 52
No 38

Full results here.

Transit Poll: the results

Do you think traffic congestion in the Triangle is a problem?

Major problem 52%
Somewhat of a problem 35%
Not a problem 11%

Some people think that the solution to traffic congestion is building and widening more roads. Others believe we ought to develop a variety of transportation options, including roads, regional bus service, and regional rail. Which approach makes more sense to you?

Develop a variety of transportation options, including regional rail 74%
Focus strictly on building and widening more roads 19%
Don't know 7%

It's worth noting that we asked this same question on a survey conducted in April 2006. At that time the margin was 70%-23% on this question, indicating there may be slightly more support for mass transit in the Triangle than there was this time 20 months ago.

Last month Mecklenburg County residents voted to continue a half cent sales tax for mass transit to relieve road congestion. If you thought it would help with traffic congestion, would you support a similar tax for counties in the Triangle?

Yes 55%
No 37%
Don't know 8%

Another way mass transit could be paid for is a $40 per year increase in the vehicle registration fee. If you thought it would help with traffic congestion, would you support an increase in the vehicle registration fee?

Yes 35%
No 58%
Don't know 8%

Another way mass transit could be paid for is an odometer tax at the annual vehicle inspection. Vehicle owners would be charged five dollars for every thousand miles driven in excess of 12,000 miles per year. If you thought it would help with traffic congestion, would you support an odometer tax?

Yes 32%
No 60%
Don't know 8%

Another way mass transit could be paid for is a ten cent increase in the gas tax. If you thought it would help with traffic congestion, would you support an increase in the gas tax?

Yes 21%
No 73%
Don't know 6%

What would be your preferred way of generating new money for mass transit projects in the Triangle; a sales tax increase, a combination of a vehicle registration fee increase and odometer tax, a gas tax increase or do you oppose any new money for mass transit?

Sales tax increase 25%
Vehicle registration fee increase and odometer tax 27%
Gas tax increase 11%
No new money for mass transit projects 29%
Don't know 9%
______________________________________________
What's the bottom line? 63% of respondents are willing to pay more for mass transit. That's a good sign for the Special Transit Advisory Committee, which is working on recommendations for a Regional Transit Vision Plan which will surely need to be funded.

But it's not clear what mode of taxation would be most palatable to Triangle residents, although it does seem that raising the gas tax would not be a popular solution in this time when prices are already high.

It's up to our leaders to come up with a plan that they can get majority public support for- but having the support for transit in place from the public is an important first step- and that appears to be the case from our poll.

Full results here.

Richard Moore's new poll

Yesterday Richard Moore's campaign manager, Jay Reiff, sent out an e-mail to supporters touting the results of a new poll by the Benenson Strategy Group. According to the poll Perdue leads Moore 34% to 30%. The mass email and polling memo make note that Moore actually leads Perdue 48% to 33% among voters "who know both candidates."

Reiff did not feel the need to mention in his e-mail that Benenson is the campaign's paid pollster. And as WUNC's Laura Leslie pointed out last night, "although Benensen is one of the better internal pollsters out there, no one gets rich by delivering strictly dismal data. Knowing how to find a silver lining in the numbers is, well, worth a lot of silver."

Reiff also used part of the e-mail to take some thinly veiled shots at the accuracy of polling companies, including PPP, that have delivered less favorable numbers for Moore's chances.

For instance he said "How was the poll conducted? Many public polls are automated, computer-generated polls done on the cheap. Our pollster uses live callers to make sure we’re interviewing actual voters."

It has been written numerous times on this blog how bogus this line of attack against IVR surveys is. But I will repeat it, there is absolutely no evidence that IVR surveys are less accurate than live-interview surveys and we will put our track record up against anybody.

In fact the Moore campaign has been happy to tout our numbers when the results were more favorable to them.

Reiff also devoted a significant chunk of his e-mail to criticizing Civitas' methodology. We don't agree with the way they do their polls for primaries either because they don't survey exclusively likely primary voters, but Reiff's criticism is ironic considering just two weeks ago he sent out an e-mail to supporters hailing the results of a Civitas poll as a sign that the race is 'wide open.'

I'm pretty sure Jay Reiff wouldn't be taking shots at our methodology if his candidate was doing a little better.

You can say what you want about us, but whenever we do a poll on the gubernatorial race we tell you exactly what we asked and give you full crosstabs. I would challenge the Moore campaign to do the same thing before sending out selective poll numbers and criticizing the way we do business.

ACC Loyalty Poll: the Political Breakdown

UNC and Duke's iconic basketball coaches, Dean Smith and Mike Krzyzewski, are both known for their strong political views.

It turns out their views may reflect those of their fans bases as well.

Our ACC loyalty poll shows that UNC has the largest percentage of fans who identify themselves as Democrats in the Triangle while Duke has the largest percentage of fans who identify themselves as Republicans.

Here are the numbers:

UNC

Democratic 58
Republican 25
Other 18

Duke

Democratic 45
Republican 40
Other 15

State

Democratic 46
Republican 36
Other 19

A statewide poll earlier this year also showed UNC fans to be the most Democratic and Duke fans to be the most Republican:

UNC

Democratic 49
Republican 33
Other 18

Duke

Republican 44
Democratic 37
Other 19

NC State

Democratic 43
Republican 38
Other 19

Full results of this week's poll here.

ACC Loyalty Poll: the Basics

Which North Carolina college team do you cheer for most?

NC State 31
UNC 23
Duke 17
Wake 4
Other 25

NC State is the most popular ACC school among likely voters in the Triangle, according to our newest poll. This is likely due to the fact that around 2/3rds of the region's population is in Wake County.

Here is the data broken out county by county:

Durham:

Duke 34
UNC 32
State 5

Duke has difficulty registering as the most popular school even in its own county, just barely edging out UNC. Of course many UNC faculty and staff members live in Durham County now due to the rising cost of housing in Orange County.

Orange:

UNC 48
Duke 19
State 6

UNC has a higher percentage of support from respondents in its own county than either Duke or NC State does. State's 6% showing in Orange County combined with its 5% showing in Durham County shows that it has little Triangle wide support even as it leads overall.

Wake:

State 45
UNC 16
Duke 11

State has strong support in its home base. UNC's showing is surprisingly low.

It is worth noting also that we asked this question on a statewide basis for a poll in April. The the numbers were:

UNC 35
State 26
Duke 18
Wake 5
Other 16

Full results of this week's poll here.

A poll Paul does well in

Last month when we put out our tracking poll the Ron Paul people came after us for not including him. They e-mailed us, they called us, they left a comment on our blog saying he was the 'only real Republican.'

So we added him and he received strong support...from no one. He managed the support of 3% of respondents.

He did win one North Carolina poll last week though. Under the Dome reports that his supporters flooded the Wake County Young Republicans Christmas party and managed to deliver him a victory in their straw poll with the support of 53% of those present.

So we know they can put banners on highway overpasses, put up a lot of signs, and turn out in force for a straw poll.

But as of yet that stuff hasn't done much to move him forward in the broader polls.

The decline of Bill Graham

Month	Bill Graham’s margin on Fred Smith
January	+15
February	+16
March	+15
April	+11
May	+12
June	+6
July	+14
August	+12
September	+14
October	+2
November	-8
December	-8

The chart kind of speaks for itself. With the exception of June Bill Graham led Fred Smith by 11-16 points in each of our monthly tracking polls from January to September. Smith cut 12 points off the lead from September to October and then another 10 points from October to November.

What to chalk it up to? I think in this case it's good old fashioned retail politics. Fred Smith's rise in the polls coincides almost exactly with the launch of his Statewide BBQ tour. He had 21 events across the state in August and September, then 23 during October alone. It's not like hundreds of people are turning out to these things but it's generating a lot of good small town press coverage and ingratiating him to party activists. During that time Bill Graham has done...well...not much unless I'm missing something. Smith really seems to be out working Graham and it's being reflected in the polls.

Maybe Graham will win by pouring millions of dollars of his personal fortune into tv advertising come spring time, but right now I'd say he's in a lot of trouble.

Undecideds and the 1998 Senate race

Someone who read the below post called and told me he didn't think the high percentage of undecideds for the Democratic primary field was a problem at all and suggested that John Edwards' poll numbers probably weren't very strong at this point ten years ago.

The earliest numbers for the 1998 Senate primary I could find were from a late March Winston-Salem Journal poll. It showed Edwards with 23%, D.G. Martin with 14%, and Ella Scarborough with 8%. 53% were still undecided.

I don't think Kay Hagan or Jim Neal is another John Edwards, but those numbers show that with the right amount of money, personality, and political fortune your stock can certainly rise quickly.