Thursday, December 13, 2007

Tenth Congressional District Poll: Patrick McHenry is in trouble

Today Public Policy Polling released the results of a poll conducted in August and then again this week about the 10th Congressional District race. The results clearly show voters becoming more ambivalent about Patrick McHenry's job performance over the last four months and open to the possibility of electing someone else in 2008.

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Patrick McHenry is handling his job as Congressman?


August

December

Approve

53

44

Disapprove

32

32

Undecided

15

24


While McHenry's disapproval numbers have remained static the number of people approving of his performance has declined 9%. It seems that allegations of misconduct by both McHenry and his staff are causing voters in his district not necessarily to disapprove of him but to be more wary of the job he is doing.

In 2008 Patrick McHenry will be running for a third term as Congressman. If the race were today would you vote to reelect Patrick McHenry or would you choose someone else?


August

December

Reelect McHenry

55

45

Someone else

34

36

Don’t know

11

19


In August a solid majority of respondents in McHenry's district said they would vote to reelect him. Since then the number of people definitively saying they would do so has declined from 55% to 45%, with the number of people unsure going from 11 to 19%.

Daniel Johnson, a conservative Democrat and 31-year-old prosecutor from Hickory, who was awarded the Navy and Marine Corps medal after losing both of his legs while saving the life of a fellow sailor, is challenging Patrick McHenry. If the election were today, who would you vote for?


August

December

McHenry

47

39

Johnson

32

32

Don’t know

21

29


Since Daniel Johnson got into the race there has been a significant uptick in the number of voters who are undecided about who they will vote for. This shift has been particularly strong among Republican voters. In August 17% of Republican respondents were undecided about who they would vote for. That number is now up to 28%. It is likely that since announcing his candidacy the contrast between Johnson's background as a prosecutor and military hero has been more appealing to many Republican voters than McHenry's life in politics. But they're still Republicans and hesitant to support a Democrat. Daniel Johnson can be successful if he can convince those undecided Republicans to cross party lines.

Full results here.

7 comments:

Anglico said...

Good stuff.

Looks like McHorny is going to have to reach into his deep bag of dirty tricks to hold on this time.

Thanks, as always, for your kind cross-post at BlueNC

Anonymous said...

And you wonder why your organization and your polls lack all credibility:

When looking at the crosstabs, here is the political affiliation breakdown of those who were polled:

If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a

Republican, press 2. If other, press 3.

Democrat ........................................................ 47%

Republican...................................................... 39%

Other............................................................... 15%

Here is the actual breakdown of the district according to the NCFREE Almanac of NC Politics:

Democrat…………………………….36.85%

Rep……………………………………43.33%

Unaff………………………………….19.82%

Tom Jensen said...

The party breakdown of our 10th Congressional District poll was 51% Republican, 37% Democratic, and 12% other. The numbers you put below are from our statewide tracking poll.

I'd post as anonymous too if I was going to post ignorant information.

Anonymous said...

I wonder how these numbers will fare now that we have Daniel Johnson and Lance Sigmon running against him.

For the record, since these names are just coming out-

Official Sigmon for Congress Campaign Website

Official Johnson for Congress Campaign Website

Anonymous said...

Patrick is too afraid to debate Lance Sigmon. He has nothing to gain and EVERYTHING to lose.

Patty is in some real trouble.

He is gay.

Anonymous said...

^^ nice blog!! ^@^

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