It's hard to believe that as recently as April folks were talking about a 'permanent Democratic majority.' That was silly, just as talk of a permanent Republican majority in early 2005 was. The only thing in politics that I think we can count on as permanent is the winds changing.
John Kerry won moderates by nine points in 2004. Barack Obama won them by 21 in 2008. Ronald Reagan won them by eight in 1984. Those voters are highly variable from election cycle to election cycle, and unless we enter a period under Democratic control where there is universal prosperity, no concerns about national security, no major ethics issues, etc. folks will get antsy and the Republicans will get back in charge eventually.
I think we're much more likely to end up with a three or more party system than a one party system. Let's say that Democrats did hold the Presidency and Congress for 20 years- if progress continued at the rate it looks like it's going to this year some set of charismatic left leaning leaders would probably finally end up splitting off and bringing a lot of folks with them. If the Republicans got in charge forever and there was a similar middling pace I think the hard conservatives would end up splitting off and doing their own thing as well.
I doubt that's going to happen though- a competitive two party system is here to stay. What I'm even more confident of than that though is if Republicans make major gains in the House and Senate next year, then regain control of them and the Presidency in 2012 you're probably going to hear all sorts of commentary once again about the death of the Democratic party and the possibility of a permanent Republican majority. That's just as much a part of the cycle as the inevitable shifts in power.
Wednesday, September 9, 2009
Perdue's Approval in a Holding Pattern
For the third month in a row PPP finds Bev Perdue's approval rating in the 25-27% range, this time coming in at 26% with 54% of voters in the state disapproving of the job she's doing.
Perdue's approval is pretty much steady with Democrats and Republicans at 40% and 8% respectively. With independents she's dropped from 27% a month ago to now 22%.
We asked respondents who said they didn't like Perdue to say why, from a list of six choices. The top reason was that she raised taxes, cited by 37% of respondents. Another 17% named a specific thing, her cutting teacher and state employee pay earlier in the year in the form of a furlough. Her approval numbers first started dropping precipitously, particularly among Democrats, in the wake of that action.
Also commonly cited were two more general leadership characteristics. 19% of those disapproving of her said it was because she's been indecisive and not a strong leader and 17% said she was generally not trust worthy.
Some have speculated that Perdue's problems are due to a lack of visibility but only 1% said that was why they disapproved of her and only 4% expressed unhappiness with her willingness to take progressive issue stances.
A combination of the national climate and Perdue's unpopularity has the potential to cause problems for Democrats further down the ballot. North Carolina voters, asked generally whether they would support Democratic or Republican legislative candidates if an election was held today, support the GOP by a narrow 43-42 margin. That's made possible by Republicans holding a 37-29 lead among independents and also having their base more knotted up, with 88% of their voters saying they would support the party while just 76% of Democrats say they would vote for their nominees.
Of course the rub there, besides the fact that the next election is 14 months away, is that control of the legislature is decided not by generic ballots but by races in individual districts. Winning those contests requires good candidates and a lot of money, and Democrats have proven themselves to be superior on those fronts in recent years. Perhaps the Republican shift nationally and Perdue's troubles will embolden stronger GOP candidates to run than have in the past few cycles but that remains to be seen.
As for Perdue, her weak numbers provide a great opportunity. It's close to impossible for her to be any less popular so she should move forward with a more bold and transformational vision for the state and not worry about the political consequences of it. If she doesn't do anything significantly differently for the next three years she's going to be a one term Governor anyway, so she might as well shoot for the stars in terms of changing and improving how the state of North Carolina does things and not worry about what impact that's going to have on her standing with this or that interest group or donor. You can't make meaningful change if you don't at least try.
Full results here
Perdue's approval is pretty much steady with Democrats and Republicans at 40% and 8% respectively. With independents she's dropped from 27% a month ago to now 22%.
We asked respondents who said they didn't like Perdue to say why, from a list of six choices. The top reason was that she raised taxes, cited by 37% of respondents. Another 17% named a specific thing, her cutting teacher and state employee pay earlier in the year in the form of a furlough. Her approval numbers first started dropping precipitously, particularly among Democrats, in the wake of that action.
Also commonly cited were two more general leadership characteristics. 19% of those disapproving of her said it was because she's been indecisive and not a strong leader and 17% said she was generally not trust worthy.
Some have speculated that Perdue's problems are due to a lack of visibility but only 1% said that was why they disapproved of her and only 4% expressed unhappiness with her willingness to take progressive issue stances.
A combination of the national climate and Perdue's unpopularity has the potential to cause problems for Democrats further down the ballot. North Carolina voters, asked generally whether they would support Democratic or Republican legislative candidates if an election was held today, support the GOP by a narrow 43-42 margin. That's made possible by Republicans holding a 37-29 lead among independents and also having their base more knotted up, with 88% of their voters saying they would support the party while just 76% of Democrats say they would vote for their nominees.
Of course the rub there, besides the fact that the next election is 14 months away, is that control of the legislature is decided not by generic ballots but by races in individual districts. Winning those contests requires good candidates and a lot of money, and Democrats have proven themselves to be superior on those fronts in recent years. Perhaps the Republican shift nationally and Perdue's troubles will embolden stronger GOP candidates to run than have in the past few cycles but that remains to be seen.
As for Perdue, her weak numbers provide a great opportunity. It's close to impossible for her to be any less popular so she should move forward with a more bold and transformational vision for the state and not worry about the political consequences of it. If she doesn't do anything significantly differently for the next three years she's going to be a one term Governor anyway, so she might as well shoot for the stars in terms of changing and improving how the state of North Carolina does things and not worry about what impact that's going to have on her standing with this or that interest group or donor. You can't make meaningful change if you don't at least try.
Full results here
Tuesday, September 8, 2009
And the plan in North Carolina...
-Tomorrow we'll have our monthly numbers on Bev Perdue. She's pretty much in the same place she's been. We asked folks who disapproved of her to tell us the reason why from a list of commonly cited reasons and those results are well worth looking at.
-Thursday will be the Obama numbers. We asked the same health care question as last month and got basically the same numbers...doesn't seem like all the noise is moving public opinion on that in either direction. One big caveat for him on this poll though: he's down to the 70s with Democrats. It'll be interesting to see if that's a blip or a trend.
-Friday we'll have the monthly Senate numbers. Richard Burr's approval rating isn't going anywhere but the number still shows some signs of concern for Democrats. For instance even though he only gets 34% approval from independents, he still has a 22 point lead on the generic ballot with them. And the six Democrats we tested poll anywhere from 14 to 21% with independents- that's not their deficit, it's their share of the vote!
Stay tuned!
-Thursday will be the Obama numbers. We asked the same health care question as last month and got basically the same numbers...doesn't seem like all the noise is moving public opinion on that in either direction. One big caveat for him on this poll though: he's down to the 70s with Democrats. It'll be interesting to see if that's a blip or a trend.
-Friday we'll have the monthly Senate numbers. Richard Burr's approval rating isn't going anywhere but the number still shows some signs of concern for Democrats. For instance even though he only gets 34% approval from independents, he still has a 22 point lead on the generic ballot with them. And the six Democrats we tested poll anywhere from 14 to 21% with independents- that's not their deficit, it's their share of the vote!
Stay tuned!
Coming in New Jersey...
We're going into the field in New Jersey Thursday or Friday, here's some of what we have cooked up:
-We'll ask people who say they're going to vote for Chris Daggett who their second choice is. There are some factors here that could result in his really doing as well as he's polling right now but that doesn't change the fact that usually third party candidates don't do as well in November as they do in August and September.
-We're also going to test swap outs of Cory Booker and Frank Pallone for Jon Corzine. It seems exceptionally unlikely this would happen but the numbers would still be interesting.
Then we're going to test run some questions before our next national poll:
-Should the federal government be eliminated? What's your guess on support for that- I'm thinking around 25%.
-Should public education be eliminated? I'm thinking this might be a little less popular than getting rid of the federal government, but that's why we ask the questions!
-We're going to ask both a birther and truther question to figure out a) what percentage of the country is nuts and b) how much overlap there is.
If you have other suggestions for New Jersey we're open to them- probably need to get them in by Thursday.
-We'll ask people who say they're going to vote for Chris Daggett who their second choice is. There are some factors here that could result in his really doing as well as he's polling right now but that doesn't change the fact that usually third party candidates don't do as well in November as they do in August and September.
-We're also going to test swap outs of Cory Booker and Frank Pallone for Jon Corzine. It seems exceptionally unlikely this would happen but the numbers would still be interesting.
Then we're going to test run some questions before our next national poll:
-Should the federal government be eliminated? What's your guess on support for that- I'm thinking around 25%.
-Should public education be eliminated? I'm thinking this might be a little less popular than getting rid of the federal government, but that's why we ask the questions!
-We're going to ask both a birther and truther question to figure out a) what percentage of the country is nuts and b) how much overlap there is.
If you have other suggestions for New Jersey we're open to them- probably need to get them in by Thursday.
Politics and Football in NC
Always glad for the opportunity to combine two of my favorite topics!
I thought it would be interesting to break down the results of our numbers on who people think will have the best football team in North Carolina this year by whether they approve or disapprove of Barack Obama's job performance:
I'm not surprised by ECU and NC State being the least supportive of Obama because their fan bases seem to be pretty conservative but Wake folks liking the President better than those from UNC is somewhat surprising.
I thought it would be interesting to break down the results of our numbers on who people think will have the best football team in North Carolina this year by whether they approve or disapprove of Barack Obama's job performance:
| School | Obama Approval |
| | 59/37 |
| UNC | 48/48 |
| Duke | 46/51 |
| Appalachian State | 43/54 |
| ECU | 38/56 |
| NC State | 38/56 |
I'm not surprised by ECU and NC State being the least supportive of Obama because their fan bases seem to be pretty conservative but Wake folks liking the President better than those from UNC is somewhat surprising.
NC has no popular politicians
Is there truly a popular politician in North Carolina these days? If you go by the usual measure of a 50% + approval or favorability rating the answer is no. If you lower the standard to 45% because there's a recession in political approval ratings right now the answer is still no.
Neither of our Senators or Governor has an approval rating over 40%. Our August polling found Richard Burr at 38%, Kay Hagan at 32%, and Bev Perdue at 27%.
So how about the top vote getters in last fall's election? Roy Cooper and Elaine Marshall received 61 and 57% of the vote respectively for reelection but when we polled on them this year 41-44% of voters said they had a favorable opinion of Cooper and 28% said the same of Marshall- so even if they received a lot of votes that's not necessarily an indication of large numbers of voters holding affection for them.
The last time we showed a North Carolina politician at 50% was Mike Easley in January of 2007. But by the time he left office that was all the way down to 33%.
How does NC compare to other states? This chart shows the average approval rating of the Governor and Senators in the 14 places where we've done a comprehensive poll in 2009:
North Carolinians like their politicians less than any other state we've polled this year. All of the rest had at least one with an approval rating in the 40s.
The dearth of popularity for politicians doesn't seem likely to change any time soon either. Roy Cooper might have hit 50 with the greater name recognition he built from a race for a higher profile office, but he declined. Burr will certainly have more visibility next year, but that cuts both ways, as Elizabeth Dole found out. Would a new Senator start out popular? Not if Hagan's numbers are an indicator. And Perdue's about a continent away from 50%.
It will be interesting to see if a Jim Hunt or Jesse Helms arrives on the scene any time soon and is able to retain the affection of a majority- even a bare majority- of North Carolina voters for an extended period of time.
Neither of our Senators or Governor has an approval rating over 40%. Our August polling found Richard Burr at 38%, Kay Hagan at 32%, and Bev Perdue at 27%.
So how about the top vote getters in last fall's election? Roy Cooper and Elaine Marshall received 61 and 57% of the vote respectively for reelection but when we polled on them this year 41-44% of voters said they had a favorable opinion of Cooper and 28% said the same of Marshall- so even if they received a lot of votes that's not necessarily an indication of large numbers of voters holding affection for them.
The last time we showed a North Carolina politician at 50% was Mike Easley in January of 2007. But by the time he left office that was all the way down to 33%.
How does NC compare to other states? This chart shows the average approval rating of the Governor and Senators in the 14 places where we've done a comprehensive poll in 2009:
| State | Average Governor/Senator Approval |
| | 54 |
| | 53 |
| | 51 |
| | 50 |
| | 49 |
| | 49 |
| | 47 |
| | 46 |
| | 40 |
| | 39 |
| | 38 |
| | 37 |
| | 34 |
| | 32 |
North Carolinians like their politicians less than any other state we've polled this year. All of the rest had at least one with an approval rating in the 40s.
The dearth of popularity for politicians doesn't seem likely to change any time soon either. Roy Cooper might have hit 50 with the greater name recognition he built from a race for a higher profile office, but he declined. Burr will certainly have more visibility next year, but that cuts both ways, as Elizabeth Dole found out. Would a new Senator start out popular? Not if Hagan's numbers are an indicator. And Perdue's about a continent away from 50%.
It will be interesting to see if a Jim Hunt or Jesse Helms arrives on the scene any time soon and is able to retain the affection of a majority- even a bare majority- of North Carolina voters for an extended period of time.
Did Allen really do himself any long term damage?
Last week we found that George Allen was actually not particularly damaged goods when it comes to the possibility of again seeking elected office. Here's some additional perspective on those numbers:
-His 50% favorability rating makes him more popular than about 2/3rds of the Senators we've polled on so far in 2009.
-He has decent numbers with key swing voter groups. Among conservative Democrats only 23% say they would never vote for Allen while 59% are open to it. With moderate Republicans he's very popular- 86% of them have have a favorable opinion of him and while 60% say they would definitely vote for him in a future campaign only 7% said they never would. And while his overall numbers with independents are impressive- 59% with a positive view of him and 69% open to voting for him in the future- what makes the numbers even more intriguing is that among moderate independent voters he still has a positive 48/41 favorability ratio.
Here's my feeling on 'Macaca': it was probably the difference between Allen losing by a point and winning by one or two. The fact that the race became so competitive was more a reflection of the national political climate and Jim Webb making an unexpectedly strong candidate than Allen's misstep. It may have made enough of a difference to tip the needle in an extremely tight race, but I don't think it had a huge impact on voters' long term perceptions of him- it may have made Democrats who disliked him already dislike him even more but it didn't make many Republicans sour on him and evidently the impact with independents was small as well.
It will be interesting to see what, if anything, his next move is.
-His 50% favorability rating makes him more popular than about 2/3rds of the Senators we've polled on so far in 2009.
-He has decent numbers with key swing voter groups. Among conservative Democrats only 23% say they would never vote for Allen while 59% are open to it. With moderate Republicans he's very popular- 86% of them have have a favorable opinion of him and while 60% say they would definitely vote for him in a future campaign only 7% said they never would. And while his overall numbers with independents are impressive- 59% with a positive view of him and 69% open to voting for him in the future- what makes the numbers even more intriguing is that among moderate independent voters he still has a positive 48/41 favorability ratio.
Here's my feeling on 'Macaca': it was probably the difference between Allen losing by a point and winning by one or two. The fact that the race became so competitive was more a reflection of the national political climate and Jim Webb making an unexpectedly strong candidate than Allen's misstep. It may have made enough of a difference to tip the needle in an extremely tight race, but I don't think it had a huge impact on voters' long term perceptions of him- it may have made Democrats who disliked him already dislike him even more but it didn't make many Republicans sour on him and evidently the impact with independents was small as well.
It will be interesting to see what, if anything, his next move is.
Friday, September 4, 2009
Looking at Party ID nationally
Yesterday I looked at some changes we were finding in party identification in some key swing states, today I'm going to look at our national polling:
Comparing our most recent national poll to April we see Democrats dropping from 40% to 35%. Independents are the main beneficiary, going from 27% to 30%. Republicans have gained a point, from 33% to 34%.
That finding is somewhat consistent with our Congressional poll- voters don't like the Democrats but they don't really like the Republicans either, leading to an up tick in unaffiliated voters.
There's been no shift among liberals- 78% were Democrats in April and 77% are now. The change among moderates has completely been Democrats moving into the independent column- Republicans are steady at 18%, but D's have dropped from 45% to 37%, while independents have increased from 37% to 45%. We are finding movement to Republicans among conservatives- 67% compared to 58% in April with a commensurate drop in Democrats from 21% to 14%.
Party identification among minorities is mostly static, but whites have gone from breaking down R+7 to R+12, going from 40 R, 33 D, 27 I in the spring to now 42 R, 30 D, and 29 I.
Perhaps the most striking movement is with senior citizens. In April we had them breaking down evenly between the parties at 37, with 26% independents. Now we find 46% of them identifying as Republicans, to 33% Democrats and 22% independents.
Midterm turnout is considerably more dominated by older voters than Presidential years, and that's something Democrats are going to have to contend with. But it's a long way to November 2010.
Comparing our most recent national poll to April we see Democrats dropping from 40% to 35%. Independents are the main beneficiary, going from 27% to 30%. Republicans have gained a point, from 33% to 34%.
That finding is somewhat consistent with our Congressional poll- voters don't like the Democrats but they don't really like the Republicans either, leading to an up tick in unaffiliated voters.
There's been no shift among liberals- 78% were Democrats in April and 77% are now. The change among moderates has completely been Democrats moving into the independent column- Republicans are steady at 18%, but D's have dropped from 45% to 37%, while independents have increased from 37% to 45%. We are finding movement to Republicans among conservatives- 67% compared to 58% in April with a commensurate drop in Democrats from 21% to 14%.
Party identification among minorities is mostly static, but whites have gone from breaking down R+7 to R+12, going from 40 R, 33 D, 27 I in the spring to now 42 R, 30 D, and 29 I.
Perhaps the most striking movement is with senior citizens. In April we had them breaking down evenly between the parties at 37, with 26% independents. Now we find 46% of them identifying as Republicans, to 33% Democrats and 22% independents.
Midterm turnout is considerably more dominated by older voters than Presidential years, and that's something Democrats are going to have to contend with. But it's a long way to November 2010.
Virginia on the Presidents
Want a prism into why Democrats were finally able to break through and win the Presidential race in Virginia last year? Of the Presidents since 1980 voters in the state say that Ronald Reagan is their favorite...but that George W. Bush is their least favorite. That decline over the years in voter perceptions of GOP leadership obviously has a lot to do with Barack Obama's victory last fall.
44% of Virginians say that Reagan is their favorite out of the last five Presidents, with Barack Obama finishing second at 23%, just barely edging out Bill Clinton at 21%.
Reagan is the overwhelming favorite of Republicans, at 71%, and of independents, at 57%. Interestingly he also edges out Obama among voters under 30, 38-31, even though most of them are too young to remember much of his time in office.
Obama leads Clinton 49-39 among Democrats. It's interesting to note that among African American voters Clinton actually gets 31% to Obama's 58%, an indication of how much popularity Clinton continues to have in the black community even after last year's spirited contest for the Democratic nomination between Obama and his wife.
41% of voters say that George W. Bush is their least favorite President of that time period, to 31% for Obama and 18% for Clinton. He's the choice of 74% of Democrats and narrowly beats Obama among independents, 37-36. Even after less than a year in office Republican voters already dislike Obama more than Clinton, 59-30.
What implications do these numbers have? Reagan managed to be conservative without seeming mean. The current breed of Republican leadership hasn't figured that out yet, and that's reflected in the balance of power we have right now in Washington.
Full results here
44% of Virginians say that Reagan is their favorite out of the last five Presidents, with Barack Obama finishing second at 23%, just barely edging out Bill Clinton at 21%.
Reagan is the overwhelming favorite of Republicans, at 71%, and of independents, at 57%. Interestingly he also edges out Obama among voters under 30, 38-31, even though most of them are too young to remember much of his time in office.
Obama leads Clinton 49-39 among Democrats. It's interesting to note that among African American voters Clinton actually gets 31% to Obama's 58%, an indication of how much popularity Clinton continues to have in the black community even after last year's spirited contest for the Democratic nomination between Obama and his wife.
41% of voters say that George W. Bush is their least favorite President of that time period, to 31% for Obama and 18% for Clinton. He's the choice of 74% of Democrats and narrowly beats Obama among independents, 37-36. Even after less than a year in office Republican voters already dislike Obama more than Clinton, 59-30.
What implications do these numbers have? Reagan managed to be conservative without seeming mean. The current breed of Republican leadership hasn't figured that out yet, and that's reflected in the balance of power we have right now in Washington.
Full results here
A challenge from the left?
So last night Keith Olbermann, who I like, suggested that if Barack Obama stayed on his current course he could open himself to a challenge from the left in 2012.
I don't think so.
Over the last month we've found Obama's approval with liberal Democrats at 94% nationally, 96% in Virginia and Colorado, 95% in North Carolina, and 91% in Arkansas.
Looking at it from another direction we've interviewed 543 liberal Democrats across the country in the last month, and 19 of them said they disapproved of the job he's doing.
There may be some unhappiness with Obama from opinion leaders on the left but that is having virtually no trickle down to voters in general. Moving on...
I don't think so.
Over the last month we've found Obama's approval with liberal Democrats at 94% nationally, 96% in Virginia and Colorado, 95% in North Carolina, and 91% in Arkansas.
Looking at it from another direction we've interviewed 543 liberal Democrats across the country in the last month, and 19 of them said they disapproved of the job he's doing.
There may be some unhappiness with Obama from opinion leaders on the left but that is having virtually no trickle down to voters in general. Moving on...
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