Friday, September 4, 2009

Looking at Party ID nationally

Yesterday I looked at some changes we were finding in party identification in some key swing states, today I'm going to look at our national polling:

Comparing our most recent national poll to April we see Democrats dropping from 40% to 35%. Independents are the main beneficiary, going from 27% to 30%. Republicans have gained a point, from 33% to 34%.

That finding is somewhat consistent with our Congressional poll- voters don't like the Democrats but they don't really like the Republicans either, leading to an up tick in unaffiliated voters.

There's been no shift among liberals- 78% were Democrats in April and 77% are now. The change among moderates has completely been Democrats moving into the independent column- Republicans are steady at 18%, but D's have dropped from 45% to 37%, while independents have increased from 37% to 45%. We are finding movement to Republicans among conservatives- 67% compared to 58% in April with a commensurate drop in Democrats from 21% to 14%.

Party identification among minorities is mostly static, but whites have gone from breaking down R+7 to R+12, going from 40 R, 33 D, 27 I in the spring to now 42 R, 30 D, and 29 I.

Perhaps the most striking movement is with senior citizens. In April we had them breaking down evenly between the parties at 37, with 26% independents. Now we find 46% of them identifying as Republicans, to 33% Democrats and 22% independents.

Midterm turnout is considerably more dominated by older voters than Presidential years, and that's something Democrats are going to have to contend with. But it's a long way to November 2010.

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