One interesting thing I noticed about the New Jersey polls this week was that all of the ones that released crosstabs by race showed Jon Corzine under performing standard Democratic performance with African Americans. Democracy Corps had him at 71%, we had him at 70%, and Survey USA found him at 66%.
For sake of comparison exit polls showed Robert Menendez winning 82% of the black vote in 2006 and Frank Lautenberg getting 87% of it last year.
It's certainly possible that the black voters coming out in New Jersey this year are more conservative leaning than black voters in general, or that the three way nature of the race is driving down Corzine's numbers. But it's also not at all unusual for Democratic candidates to under poll among black voters further out from election day before they 'come home' at the end.
We polled five Senate/Governor elections in North Carolina, Indiana, Virginia, and Missouri in mid-October last year. On average the Democratic candidate was winning 75% of the black vote in those polls. Looking at the exit polls for those same contests, the Democrat ended up winning 90% of the black vote. So there was a 15 point discrepancy between where they were in mid-October and where they ended up on election day.
If Corzine's actual black support ends up being 15 points better than is showing in the polls today and white voters stay constant he gets reelected by a couple points. We'll see if that happens.
Friday, October 16, 2009
Edwards even less popular in NC than nationally
When it comes to John Edwards' popularity apparently familiarity breeds contempt.
A new Gallup survey today finds that 59% of Americans nationally have an unfavorable opinion of him to just 21% that see him in a positive light.
Those numbers are pretty bad, but they compare favorably to the reviews he got the last time we polled about him in North Carolina. 69% of voters in the state said they didn't like him. So much for a home field advantage.
That would seem to indicate Edwards is one politician where the better you know him the less you like him.
A new Gallup survey today finds that 59% of Americans nationally have an unfavorable opinion of him to just 21% that see him in a positive light.
Those numbers are pretty bad, but they compare favorably to the reviews he got the last time we polled about him in North Carolina. 69% of voters in the state said they didn't like him. So much for a home field advantage.
That would seem to indicate Edwards is one politician where the better you know him the less you like him.
Will Daggett hold his support?
There still seems to be an assumption that Chris Daggett's polling numbers right now are a lot better than his share of the vote on election day in New Jersey will be.
I'm not too sure though. For one thing he still seems to be gaining in the polls. And even though a lot of his supporters are weakly committed Jon Corzine and Chris Christie are so unpopular that they may truly end up deciding to cast a protest vote rather than grudgingly picking one of them.
Polls released this week, three weeks before the election, have shown Daggett at an average of 14%. I decided to look at all the independent or third party candidates who have received at least 5% of the vote in a Gubernatorial contest since 2006 and see where they were polling roughly three weeks prior to election day and how that compared to their final share of the vote. (I couldn't find any information on where Andrew Halcro, who got 10% of the vote in Alaska, was polling at this stage. Also I have noted the number of polls I could find from a comparable time period to calculate these averages.)
With the exception of Kinky Friedman none of the candidates did more than a point worse than they were doing in the polls three weeks before the election. On average they even did a little more than a point better.
It certainly is common for a third party candidate polling well over the summer to end up being a nonfactor. But if you're still in the game at this point you're usually going to end up staying in it. I bet Daggett will truly end up getting double digits at the polls on election day.
I'm not too sure though. For one thing he still seems to be gaining in the polls. And even though a lot of his supporters are weakly committed Jon Corzine and Chris Christie are so unpopular that they may truly end up deciding to cast a protest vote rather than grudgingly picking one of them.
Polls released this week, three weeks before the election, have shown Daggett at an average of 14%. I decided to look at all the independent or third party candidates who have received at least 5% of the vote in a Gubernatorial contest since 2006 and see where they were polling roughly three weeks prior to election day and how that compared to their final share of the vote. (I couldn't find any information on where Andrew Halcro, who got 10% of the vote in Alaska, was polling at this stage. Also I have noted the number of polls I could find from a comparable time period to calculate these averages.)
| Candidate | Mid-Oct. Poll Avg. | Final Vote Share | |
| | Rich Whitney | 10 | 10 |
| | Barbara Merrill | 12 | 22 |
| | Pat Lamarche | 9 | 10 |
| | Christy Mihos | 8 | 7 |
| | Peter Hutchinson | 7 | 6 |
| | Carole Keeton Strayhorn | 18 | 18 |
| | Kinky Friedman | 16 | 12 |
| | Anthony Pollina | 20 | 22 |
| | John Georges | 10 | 14 |
With the exception of Kinky Friedman none of the candidates did more than a point worse than they were doing in the polls three weeks before the election. On average they even did a little more than a point better.
It certainly is common for a third party candidate polling well over the summer to end up being a nonfactor. But if you're still in the game at this point you're usually going to end up staying in it. I bet Daggett will truly end up getting double digits at the polls on election day.
Thursday, October 15, 2009
Looking deeper at Daggett's support
Our New Jersey poll this week found that Chris Christie led Jon Corzine 48-34 as the second choice for Chris Daggett voters. It also found that only 44% of Daggett's supporters were firmly committed to him with 56% saying they could change their minds between now and the election.
It would seem then that something we really need to be paying attention to are the second choices of Daggett voters who say they could change their minds.
Christie leads Corzine 45-35 on the second choice question with persuadable Daggett voters. That's a more narrow margin than among Daggett supporters who say they will definitely vote for him- Christie leads 52-32 on the second choice question with them.
Let's go ahead and say that all of the weakly committed Daggett voters are going to abandon him and vote for their top choice of the major party candidates. That would make the race Christie 43 Corzine 41 Daggett 6.
There's a lot of talk right now that if Daggett voters jump ship Christie will see a great benefit. The truth seems to be more that it would be a good thing for him, but only worth about a point. Of course with the race this close that point could up making the difference. But I continue to think the biggest potential game changer for the closing stretch is if Corzine can somehow convince a lot more Democratic voters to turn out than are currently planning to.
It would seem then that something we really need to be paying attention to are the second choices of Daggett voters who say they could change their minds.
Christie leads Corzine 45-35 on the second choice question with persuadable Daggett voters. That's a more narrow margin than among Daggett supporters who say they will definitely vote for him- Christie leads 52-32 on the second choice question with them.
Let's go ahead and say that all of the weakly committed Daggett voters are going to abandon him and vote for their top choice of the major party candidates. That would make the race Christie 43 Corzine 41 Daggett 6.
There's a lot of talk right now that if Daggett voters jump ship Christie will see a great benefit. The truth seems to be more that it would be a good thing for him, but only worth about a point. Of course with the race this close that point could up making the difference. But I continue to think the biggest potential game changer for the closing stretch is if Corzine can somehow convince a lot more Democratic voters to turn out than are currently planning to.
Few voters changing sides from 2008
I've gotten some right wing tirades because I told The Hill for a story yesterday that there were very few people who voted Democratic last year changing sides and that the problem for the party this year was largely one of complacency and comparative motivation.
In New Jersey 71% of people who voted for John McCain are planning to vote for Chris Christie and 70% who voted for Barack Obama are supporting Jon Corzine. There is no meaningful difference in the percentage of their party's voters from last year that the two major party candidates are holding onto.
It's a similar story in Virginia. Bob McDonnell is winning 8% of Obama's voters while Creigh Deeds is taking 7% of John McCain's voters.
Republicans are winning these races not because they're winning anyone over, but because they're planning to vote at a much higher rate than Democrats this year. The truth is if the same set of voters who showed up in 2008 showed up next month Creigh Deeds and Jon Corzine would both win. But of course that's not going to happen.
This fact doesn't make the potential GOP victories any less valid, and I think they may well be a harbinger of next year's elections. But they say very little about 2012 because if Barack Obama was at the top of the ballot Democrats wouldn't be having these turnout issues.
It also means that if Corzine and/or Deeds can somehow close the enthusiasm gap in the final three weeks of the campaign Democrats might not lose both of these races.
In New Jersey 71% of people who voted for John McCain are planning to vote for Chris Christie and 70% who voted for Barack Obama are supporting Jon Corzine. There is no meaningful difference in the percentage of their party's voters from last year that the two major party candidates are holding onto.
It's a similar story in Virginia. Bob McDonnell is winning 8% of Obama's voters while Creigh Deeds is taking 7% of John McCain's voters.
Republicans are winning these races not because they're winning anyone over, but because they're planning to vote at a much higher rate than Democrats this year. The truth is if the same set of voters who showed up in 2008 showed up next month Creigh Deeds and Jon Corzine would both win. But of course that's not going to happen.
This fact doesn't make the potential GOP victories any less valid, and I think they may well be a harbinger of next year's elections. But they say very little about 2012 because if Barack Obama was at the top of the ballot Democrats wouldn't be having these turnout issues.
It also means that if Corzine and/or Deeds can somehow close the enthusiasm gap in the final three weeks of the campaign Democrats might not lose both of these races.
Looking back at New Jersey Governors
New Jersey's two most popular elected Governors of the last 25 years are both moderate Republicans.
Finishing first by a wide margin in our survey was Tom Kean at 43%. Christie Whitman is second at 19%, followed by Jon Corzine at 18%.
Kean is the first choice of Republicans (59%) and independents (47%). Among Democrats he finishes runner up with 28% to Jon Corzine's 36%.
It's a sad commentary on the popularity of New Jersey's recent Democratic Governors that Corzine is tops despite his poor approval ratings. 69% of independents picked one of the two Republicans as their favorite, and 39% of Democrats picked one of them while only 14% of Republicans chose a Democrat.
You might think that New Jersey voters looking back most favorably on a pair of moderate Republicans would bode well for Chris Christie. The problem is that a majority of voters in the state don't think he's a moderate. 51% believe he's a conservative to 43% thinking he's a moderate.
That's posing a problem for Christie in the campaign. Among moderates who think he's a moderate he leads Corzine 61-16. But among moderates who think he's a conservative, Corzine has the 57-22 lead. The fact that a majority of voters don't think Christie is a centrist has to be hurting his campaign in a decidedly centrist state.
When it comes to the state's least popular Governor of the last 25 years, Jim McGreevey takes the dubious top spot with 35%. He's followed by Whitman at 26% and Corzine at 20%.
McGreevey is the least popular with Republicans (43%) and independents (31%). Among Democrats he finishes second with 33% to Whitman's 44%.
Jim Florio is fourth for most popular but also fourth for least popular.
Full results here
Finishing first by a wide margin in our survey was Tom Kean at 43%. Christie Whitman is second at 19%, followed by Jon Corzine at 18%.
Kean is the first choice of Republicans (59%) and independents (47%). Among Democrats he finishes runner up with 28% to Jon Corzine's 36%.
It's a sad commentary on the popularity of New Jersey's recent Democratic Governors that Corzine is tops despite his poor approval ratings. 69% of independents picked one of the two Republicans as their favorite, and 39% of Democrats picked one of them while only 14% of Republicans chose a Democrat.
You might think that New Jersey voters looking back most favorably on a pair of moderate Republicans would bode well for Chris Christie. The problem is that a majority of voters in the state don't think he's a moderate. 51% believe he's a conservative to 43% thinking he's a moderate.
That's posing a problem for Christie in the campaign. Among moderates who think he's a moderate he leads Corzine 61-16. But among moderates who think he's a conservative, Corzine has the 57-22 lead. The fact that a majority of voters don't think Christie is a centrist has to be hurting his campaign in a decidedly centrist state.
When it comes to the state's least popular Governor of the last 25 years, Jim McGreevey takes the dubious top spot with 35%. He's followed by Whitman at 26% and Corzine at 20%.
McGreevey is the least popular with Republicans (43%) and independents (31%). Among Democrats he finishes second with 33% to Whitman's 44%.
Jim Florio is fourth for most popular but also fourth for least popular.
Full results here
Wednesday, October 14, 2009
Looking at the undecideds in New Jersey
The 8% of voters who remain undecided in New Jersey are a Democratic leaning lot. But is that a good sign for Jon Corzine or not?
Of the remaining voters who haven't made their minds up at all, 37% are Democrats to 22% Republicans. They report having voted for Barack Obama by a 50-40 margin last fall and say they voted for Corzine by a 58-25 margin four years ago.
Usually you'd look at those numbers and say they're stubborn base voters who will eventually come home, advantage Corzine.
The thing is they don't like him- just 17% have a favorable opinion of him. But they don't like Chris Christie either- just 20% view him positively.
Will they begrudgingly vote for their party, even if they don't like the candidate, cast a protest vote for Daggett, or stay at home? In a race that's looking incredibly close the answer to that question could be decisive, if also decidedly unclear at the moment.
Of the remaining voters who haven't made their minds up at all, 37% are Democrats to 22% Republicans. They report having voted for Barack Obama by a 50-40 margin last fall and say they voted for Corzine by a 58-25 margin four years ago.
Usually you'd look at those numbers and say they're stubborn base voters who will eventually come home, advantage Corzine.
The thing is they don't like him- just 17% have a favorable opinion of him. But they don't like Chris Christie either- just 20% view him positively.
Will they begrudgingly vote for their party, even if they don't like the candidate, cast a protest vote for Daggett, or stay at home? In a race that's looking incredibly close the answer to that question could be decisive, if also decidedly unclear at the moment.
Cable News and Presidential Approval
We often talk about conservative Democrats, moderate Republicans, etc. when discussing North Carolina politics. But our poll last week suggested that we might be able to just skip all those labels and understand voters better by what cable news channel they like to watch.
Consider this: Barack Obama's approval rating with Republicans who watch Fox News is 5%. But with CNN watching GOP voters it's 33%. We'd tell you what it is with MSNBC watching Republicans but, well, there really aren't any.
It's a similar story with Democrats. CNN Democrats give the President an 87% approval rating and 83% of MSNBC ones think he's doing a good job. But with Fox News Democrats only 56% approve of his job performance. That's more or less the group of voters he's seen the greatest decline in support from since the spring, which has resulted in his approval numbers declining.
And while independents are generally thought of as some sort of monolithic group, there's a very distinct difference between CNN independents and Fox News independents. CNN watching ones give Obama a 64% approval rating...but those who prefer Fox News only support him at a 12% clip.
Overall North Carolina is a Fox News watching state, with 49% of voters saying that's the main cable news network they watch. 31% prefer CNN and MSNBC is in a distant third at 13%. Even among liberals CNN outpaces MSNBC 55-26.
These numbers serve to pretty much confirm all stereotypes about what people like what cable networks!
Consider this: Barack Obama's approval rating with Republicans who watch Fox News is 5%. But with CNN watching GOP voters it's 33%. We'd tell you what it is with MSNBC watching Republicans but, well, there really aren't any.
It's a similar story with Democrats. CNN Democrats give the President an 87% approval rating and 83% of MSNBC ones think he's doing a good job. But with Fox News Democrats only 56% approve of his job performance. That's more or less the group of voters he's seen the greatest decline in support from since the spring, which has resulted in his approval numbers declining.
And while independents are generally thought of as some sort of monolithic group, there's a very distinct difference between CNN independents and Fox News independents. CNN watching ones give Obama a 64% approval rating...but those who prefer Fox News only support him at a 12% clip.
Overall North Carolina is a Fox News watching state, with 49% of voters saying that's the main cable news network they watch. 31% prefer CNN and MSNBC is in a distant third at 13%. Even among liberals CNN outpaces MSNBC 55-26.
These numbers serve to pretty much confirm all stereotypes about what people like what cable networks!
Obama in New Jersey
Barack Obama's approval rating with likely voters for the fast approaching New Jersey Gubernatorial election comes down at 46% this month.
That might make it sound like Obama's popularity has crashed in a state where he won 57% of the vote last year. But it's more a reflection of the fact that many of his supporters are not planning to come out and vote for Governor right now. The likely electorate in New Jersey reports having voted for Obama by a margin of only 49-45, in contrast to his actual 57-42 victory in the state.
That speaks to a potential secret weapon for Jon Corzine in the closing days of the campaign- there are thousands upon thousands more Democrats out there sitting on their hands right now than there are Republicans. If Corzine can do anything to get more of those folks motivated and out to the polls and shift the 2009 electorate from one where 49% of people voted for Obama last year to one where more like 53-55% supported Obama he's going to end up pulling this one out.
There are slightly more McCain supporters (8%) who now approve of Obama's performance than there are people who voted for the President last fall (7%) but now disapprove of the job he's doing.
56% of New Jersey voters think Obama did not deserve to win the Nobel Peace Prize, while only 30% think he earned the honor. Public opinion on that predictably breaks heavily along party lines, with 57% of Democrats but only 21% of independents and 4% of Republicans believing he should have won.
46% of respondents think that Obama's winning decreases the prestige of the award while 12% now think it's more prestigious and 42% don't think his victory makes a difference.
New Jersey's Senators continue to sport pretty mediocre approval ratings, with Frank Lautenberg at 36/45 and Robert Menendez at 34/45.
Full results here
That might make it sound like Obama's popularity has crashed in a state where he won 57% of the vote last year. But it's more a reflection of the fact that many of his supporters are not planning to come out and vote for Governor right now. The likely electorate in New Jersey reports having voted for Obama by a margin of only 49-45, in contrast to his actual 57-42 victory in the state.
That speaks to a potential secret weapon for Jon Corzine in the closing days of the campaign- there are thousands upon thousands more Democrats out there sitting on their hands right now than there are Republicans. If Corzine can do anything to get more of those folks motivated and out to the polls and shift the 2009 electorate from one where 49% of people voted for Obama last year to one where more like 53-55% supported Obama he's going to end up pulling this one out.
There are slightly more McCain supporters (8%) who now approve of Obama's performance than there are people who voted for the President last fall (7%) but now disapprove of the job he's doing.
56% of New Jersey voters think Obama did not deserve to win the Nobel Peace Prize, while only 30% think he earned the honor. Public opinion on that predictably breaks heavily along party lines, with 57% of Democrats but only 21% of independents and 4% of Republicans believing he should have won.
46% of respondents think that Obama's winning decreases the prestige of the award while 12% now think it's more prestigious and 42% don't think his victory makes a difference.
New Jersey's Senators continue to sport pretty mediocre approval ratings, with Frank Lautenberg at 36/45 and Robert Menendez at 34/45.
Full results here
Tuesday, October 13, 2009
The long view in New Jersey
Chris Christie's lead in our New Jersey polling peaked at the end of July, when he held a 50-36 lead. Now he's at just 40%. Where'd he lose all that support?
The answer is pretty much everywhere. Christie's seen double digit decreases in his share of the vote among conservative Democrats, moderate Republicans, conservative Republicans, and independents. The only meaningful voting blocs he hasn't lost much ground with are liberal and moderate Democrats, and that's largely a function of his never having had much support with those groups to begin with.
We didn't include Chris Daggett in that July poll where Christie had a 14 point lead, and if you look now at Christie's decline in those groups Daggett's share of the vote is almost equal to the difference between where Christie was in July and where Christie is now.
There's not much doubt Daggett's been bleeding Christie's support, putting Jon Corzine in position to win a surprise victory. The question now is how many of those marginal Daggett voters Christie can win back in the final three weeks.
Here's the full July to October comparison data on Christie's drop:
The answer is pretty much everywhere. Christie's seen double digit decreases in his share of the vote among conservative Democrats, moderate Republicans, conservative Republicans, and independents. The only meaningful voting blocs he hasn't lost much ground with are liberal and moderate Democrats, and that's largely a function of his never having had much support with those groups to begin with.
We didn't include Chris Daggett in that July poll where Christie had a 14 point lead, and if you look now at Christie's decline in those groups Daggett's share of the vote is almost equal to the difference between where Christie was in July and where Christie is now.
There's not much doubt Daggett's been bleeding Christie's support, putting Jon Corzine in position to win a surprise victory. The question now is how many of those marginal Daggett voters Christie can win back in the final three weeks.
Here's the full July to October comparison data on Christie's drop:
| Group | Christie % June | Christie % October | Daggett % |
| Lib. Dems | 4 | 4 | 9 |
| Mod. Dems | 21 | 16 | 9 |
| Cons. Dems | 51 | 37 | 16 |
| Mod. Reps | 77 | 64 | 13 |
| Cons. Reps | 94 | 79 | 13 |
| Independents | 54 | 42 | 19 |
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