Our New Jersey poll this week found that Chris Christie led Jon Corzine 48-34 as the second choice for Chris Daggett voters. It also found that only 44% of Daggett's supporters were firmly committed to him with 56% saying they could change their minds between now and the election.
It would seem then that something we really need to be paying attention to are the second choices of Daggett voters who say they could change their minds.
Christie leads Corzine 45-35 on the second choice question with persuadable Daggett voters. That's a more narrow margin than among Daggett supporters who say they will definitely vote for him- Christie leads 52-32 on the second choice question with them.
Let's go ahead and say that all of the weakly committed Daggett voters are going to abandon him and vote for their top choice of the major party candidates. That would make the race Christie 43 Corzine 41 Daggett 6.
There's a lot of talk right now that if Daggett voters jump ship Christie will see a great benefit. The truth seems to be more that it would be a good thing for him, but only worth about a point. Of course with the race this close that point could up making the difference. But I continue to think the biggest potential game changer for the closing stretch is if Corzine can somehow convince a lot more Democratic voters to turn out than are currently planning to.