It may be the Midwest- rather than the South- that proves to be the worst region for Democrats at the polls this year. We've polled on Barack Obama's approval rating in 16 states since the beginning of March. In 6 of those his approval rating is 10 points or worse than the share of the vote he got on election day- and all but one of them is a Big Ten state.
Obama's approval in California on our last poll represented a 12 point drop from his 2008 performance. The other five ones are all Midwestern- Illinois (50% approval, 62% 2008 vote), Ohio (40% approval, 51% 2008 vote), Michigan (46% approval, 57% 2008 vote), Iowa (43% approval, 54% 2008 vote) and Wisconsin (46% approval, 56% 2008 vote.)
Some of the ramifications of Obama's flagging popularity in the region are already clear. Right now there are Democratic Governors in all 5 of these states. It is entirely possible there will be Republican Governors in all of them at this time next year- Illinois, Iowa, and Michigan show clear advantages for the GOP right now, Wisconsin's leaning that way, and Ohio's a tossup.
What may be more concerning for Democrats is what we're not seeing polling for on a systematic basis and that's the House races in these states, as well as Indiana where we haven't polled in 2010. The smattering of House polls we've seen for Democrats in the region has been bad, and that's hardly a surprise when you see how far Obama's fallen across the region. Obviously the GOP is going to have to do well everywhere to reclaim the House this fall but the Midwest may provide the greatest wealth of opportunities for gains that they need to take advantage of.
Thursday, June 3, 2010
Stabenow's Standing
You can add Michigan to the list of states that it looks like will have competitive Senate races in 2012. Only 43% of voters say they would vote to reelect Debbie Stabenow while 48% say they'd prefer her Republican opponent.
Stabenow's numbers aren't real surprising in this political climate. With voters as polarized as they are right now it's hard for any politician to get cross party support and that's reflected in only 3% of Republicans saying they would vote to reelect her. And independents are turning against most all incumbent officeholders, with 42% of them saying they'd vote to replace Stabenow compared to 37% who say they would support her again.
Stabenow will probably be running in a political climate that's much more favorable to her party than the current one, and it's possible these numbers represent somewhat of a low point for her in what's shaping up to be a strong Republican year in Michigan. Nevertheless it seems likely her second bid for reelection will be more competitive than her first one if the Republicans can get a first tier challenger.
One potential Stabenow foe who would certainly be viewed as first tier is not in very good standing with Michigan voters these days. Only 37% have a favorable opinion of former Governor John Engler while 49% see him in a negative light. Democrats dislike him (77%) more strongly than Republicans like him (60%) and independents also view him negatively by a 38/50 spread. Engler clearly has lost a great deal of popularity since his resounding reelection to a third term in 1998.
It's a long way until 2012 but if Republicans recruit a good candidate this will probably be an interesting race to watch.
Full results here
Stabenow's numbers aren't real surprising in this political climate. With voters as polarized as they are right now it's hard for any politician to get cross party support and that's reflected in only 3% of Republicans saying they would vote to reelect her. And independents are turning against most all incumbent officeholders, with 42% of them saying they'd vote to replace Stabenow compared to 37% who say they would support her again.
Stabenow will probably be running in a political climate that's much more favorable to her party than the current one, and it's possible these numbers represent somewhat of a low point for her in what's shaping up to be a strong Republican year in Michigan. Nevertheless it seems likely her second bid for reelection will be more competitive than her first one if the Republicans can get a first tier challenger.
One potential Stabenow foe who would certainly be viewed as first tier is not in very good standing with Michigan voters these days. Only 37% have a favorable opinion of former Governor John Engler while 49% see him in a negative light. Democrats dislike him (77%) more strongly than Republicans like him (60%) and independents also view him negatively by a 38/50 spread. Engler clearly has lost a great deal of popularity since his resounding reelection to a third term in 1998.
It's a long way until 2012 but if Republicans recruit a good candidate this will probably be an interesting race to watch.
Full results here
GOP up in Iowa Gov
Terry Branstad's favorability numbers have taken a hit over the course of the Republican primary campaign in Iowa but with Chet Culver's approval numbers among the lowest of any chief executive in the country, the former Governor is still strongly favored to return to his old office this fall.
Branstad leads Culver 52-37. He has a 49-33 advantage among independent voters, and wins 20% of the Democratic vote while losing only 7% of the Republicans to Culver. Branstad's not overwhelmingly popular, with 42% of voters viewing him favorably to 37% with a negative opinion. But more important than the way voters view Branstad may be the way they see Culver, and the current Governor's approval rating is only 28% with 56% of voters giving him bad marks. His approval with independents is 22% and with Republicans it's 4%, and even among Democrats he stands only at 56%.
The general election looks a good deal more competitive if Bob Vander Plaats can somehow upset Branstad in the primary next week. He leads Culver only 43-38. Vander Plaats does worse against Culver largely because he receives less Democratic support.
It's a long way until November but for now Republicans are in pretty good shape in this race. Culver can't get reelected with these approval numbers- he will somehow have to make voters change their minds about him.
Full results here
Branstad leads Culver 52-37. He has a 49-33 advantage among independent voters, and wins 20% of the Democratic vote while losing only 7% of the Republicans to Culver. Branstad's not overwhelmingly popular, with 42% of voters viewing him favorably to 37% with a negative opinion. But more important than the way voters view Branstad may be the way they see Culver, and the current Governor's approval rating is only 28% with 56% of voters giving him bad marks. His approval with independents is 22% and with Republicans it's 4%, and even among Democrats he stands only at 56%.
The general election looks a good deal more competitive if Bob Vander Plaats can somehow upset Branstad in the primary next week. He leads Culver only 43-38. Vander Plaats does worse against Culver largely because he receives less Democratic support.
It's a long way until November but for now Republicans are in pretty good shape in this race. Culver can't get reelected with these approval numbers- he will somehow have to make voters change their minds about him.
Full results here
Wednesday, June 2, 2010
Does Palin's endorsement even matter?
Folks who don't pay a lot of attention to Alaska polling numbers might assume that Sarah Palin is by far the most popular Republican in the state and that Lisa Murkowski could be seriously affected by Palin's endorsement of her primary opponent...but that's not true. Murkowski's 77/13 approval with Republican voters is almost identical to Palin's 78/15 favorability. Because of that Murkowski won't likely see much negative effect from Palin's action.
And for what it's worth when you get beyond the GOP base in Alaska Murkowski is much more popular than Palin- a 52/36 approval spread compared to the former Governor's 47/45 favorability.
And for what it's worth when you get beyond the GOP base in Alaska Murkowski is much more popular than Palin- a 52/36 approval spread compared to the former Governor's 47/45 favorability.
GOP up in Michigan
It's not real clear right now who will win the Democratic and Republican nominations for Governor in Michigan this year. But one thing does look pretty clear at this point- pretty much no matter who the winners are the GOP candidate will be strongly favored to win this fall.
The Republican candidate leads in nine out of ten possible general election match ups, with the only exception a 31-30 lead over Tom George for Virg Bernero. By far the strongest candidate looks to be Rick Snyder. He leads Andy Dillon 46-26 and Bernero 44-28 in potential contests. That's due in large part to his remarkable numbers with independents- he has a 46 point lead over Dillon and a 43 point one over Bernero with them. Of course Snyder's strong appeal to the center is a double edged sword because it's still an open question whether he can do well enough with conservatives to survive the primary. But if he does make it to November he will be very strongly favored.
Doing next best among the Republicans is Pete Hoekstra. He leads Bernero 41-34 and Dillon 41-32. Mike Bouchard posts the third strongest numbers with a 39-34 advantage over Bernero and a 38-29 one over Dillon. He is followed by Mike Cox, who is up 38-36 against Bernero and 40-32 in his head to head with Dillon. Finally George leads Dillon by a point while trailing Bernero by one. It's worth noting that Bernero on average does 3-4 points better when pitted against the Republicans than Dillon.
One problem for the Democrats at this point is that their candidates are simply unknown. More than 70% of voters have no opinion of Dillon and Bernero. Another problem for Democrats is that their outgoing Governor, Jennifer Granholm, has some of the worst approval numbers in the country. Only 29% of voters approve of the job she's doing with 61% disapproving- usually when a Governor has those kinds of numbers the voters don't put in another one of the same party.
It's a long way until November and things will almost definitely tighten up but the GOP is in a very strong position in this race.
Full results here
The Republican candidate leads in nine out of ten possible general election match ups, with the only exception a 31-30 lead over Tom George for Virg Bernero. By far the strongest candidate looks to be Rick Snyder. He leads Andy Dillon 46-26 and Bernero 44-28 in potential contests. That's due in large part to his remarkable numbers with independents- he has a 46 point lead over Dillon and a 43 point one over Bernero with them. Of course Snyder's strong appeal to the center is a double edged sword because it's still an open question whether he can do well enough with conservatives to survive the primary. But if he does make it to November he will be very strongly favored.
Doing next best among the Republicans is Pete Hoekstra. He leads Bernero 41-34 and Dillon 41-32. Mike Bouchard posts the third strongest numbers with a 39-34 advantage over Bernero and a 38-29 one over Dillon. He is followed by Mike Cox, who is up 38-36 against Bernero and 40-32 in his head to head with Dillon. Finally George leads Dillon by a point while trailing Bernero by one. It's worth noting that Bernero on average does 3-4 points better when pitted against the Republicans than Dillon.
One problem for the Democrats at this point is that their candidates are simply unknown. More than 70% of voters have no opinion of Dillon and Bernero. Another problem for Democrats is that their outgoing Governor, Jennifer Granholm, has some of the worst approval numbers in the country. Only 29% of voters approve of the job she's doing with 61% disapproving- usually when a Governor has those kinds of numbers the voters don't put in another one of the same party.
It's a long way until November and things will almost definitely tighten up but the GOP is in a very strong position in this race.
Full results here
Graham in Hot Water
South Carolina Republicans are ready to give Lindsey Graham the boot. The good news for him is that they can't do it for another four years.
57% of likely voters for next week's Gubernatorial primary in the state say they would vote for a more conservative alternative to Graham the next time he is up for reelection compared to only 32% who say they would vote to renominate him.
It's clear that Graham has in particular alienated the conservative base of his party in the state. Moderate Republicans say they would vote to keep Graham by a 57-24 margin but conservatives ones are even stronger in their desire to dump him, saying by a 68-23 spread they'd like to replace him.
Graham's overall approval with Republican voters is 40% with 45% of them disapproving of him. To put those numbers in context Arlen Specter and Blanche Lincoln both still had positive approval ratings within their own parties as they failed to win their respective primaries two weeks ago.
53% of GOP voters think Graham is too liberal to 41% who think he's about right and 6% who aren't sure.
The immediate relevance of these numbers is limited but when you look at these and the ones we found for Olympia Snowe late last year the message gets clearer and clearer- Republican Senators cooperate with Democrats at their own peril.
Full results here
57% of likely voters for next week's Gubernatorial primary in the state say they would vote for a more conservative alternative to Graham the next time he is up for reelection compared to only 32% who say they would vote to renominate him.
It's clear that Graham has in particular alienated the conservative base of his party in the state. Moderate Republicans say they would vote to keep Graham by a 57-24 margin but conservatives ones are even stronger in their desire to dump him, saying by a 68-23 spread they'd like to replace him.
Graham's overall approval with Republican voters is 40% with 45% of them disapproving of him. To put those numbers in context Arlen Specter and Blanche Lincoln both still had positive approval ratings within their own parties as they failed to win their respective primaries two weeks ago.
53% of GOP voters think Graham is too liberal to 41% who think he's about right and 6% who aren't sure.
The immediate relevance of these numbers is limited but when you look at these and the ones we found for Olympia Snowe late last year the message gets clearer and clearer- Republican Senators cooperate with Democrats at their own peril.
Full results here
Some thoughts on the Alabama Results
Interesting results in the Alabama Gubernatorial primaries last night. Here are some thoughts:
-This race was going to be a tough one for Democrats no matter who their nominee ended up being, but there's no doubt their chances are better with Ron Sparks as their candidate than they would have been if Artur Davis had won the nod. The latest polls by PPP, Rasmussen, and Research 2000 showed Sparks polling an average of 3.3 points better than Davis against Bradley Byrne, who is the only clear runoff contestant for the Republicans at this point.
-When we polled the Democratic primary back in March 80% of likely voters said they supported President Obama's health care plan. The results would seem to be an indication that you really can't expect to win a primary when you opposed a bill that your party base overwhelmingly supports, and when that was the bill they probably paid the closest attention to in the last two years. Davis was still ahead of Sparks back then but based on our polling in other races Democratic voters generally assumed their Representative voted for the health care bill- whether they did or not. Sparks' campaign ensured that Democrats in Alabama knew the truth on that front.
-Finally, big upsets are caused by lack of polling. There was only one public poll on this contest in the last two months of the race and even that one came a couple weeks before the voting. Would we be surprised by the results if this contest had been getting the quantity of polling the Pennsylvania Senate primary did? Doubtful.
-This race was going to be a tough one for Democrats no matter who their nominee ended up being, but there's no doubt their chances are better with Ron Sparks as their candidate than they would have been if Artur Davis had won the nod. The latest polls by PPP, Rasmussen, and Research 2000 showed Sparks polling an average of 3.3 points better than Davis against Bradley Byrne, who is the only clear runoff contestant for the Republicans at this point.
-When we polled the Democratic primary back in March 80% of likely voters said they supported President Obama's health care plan. The results would seem to be an indication that you really can't expect to win a primary when you opposed a bill that your party base overwhelmingly supports, and when that was the bill they probably paid the closest attention to in the last two years. Davis was still ahead of Sparks back then but based on our polling in other races Democratic voters generally assumed their Representative voted for the health care bill- whether they did or not. Sparks' campaign ensured that Democrats in Alabama knew the truth on that front.
-Finally, big upsets are caused by lack of polling. There was only one public poll on this contest in the last two months of the race and even that one came a couple weeks before the voting. Would we be surprised by the results if this contest had been getting the quantity of polling the Pennsylvania Senate primary did? Doubtful.
Tuesday, June 1, 2010
Indecision reigns in Michigan Dem Primary
The Democratic race for Governor in Michigan isn't much of a race yet. Neither candidate is known to more than a third of primary voters and as a result a majority of them remain undecided.
The race is more or less tied with Virg Bernero holding an inside the margin of error advantage over Andy Dillon, 26-23. Both contenders are basically blank slates with 67% of voters having no opinion about Dillon and 73% saying the same when it comes to Bernero.
This race has been portrayed as a clear ideological choice between the two candidates and it actually is playing out that way so far with the voters who already have a preference. Bernero is up 38-15 with liberals but Dillon is up 29-27 with moderates and 20-5 with conservatives. Bernero is up big with voters under 65 but a 34-18 advantage for Dillon with senior citizens is keeping it close overall.
This contest has a long way to go...
Full results here
The race is more or less tied with Virg Bernero holding an inside the margin of error advantage over Andy Dillon, 26-23. Both contenders are basically blank slates with 67% of voters having no opinion about Dillon and 73% saying the same when it comes to Bernero.
This race has been portrayed as a clear ideological choice between the two candidates and it actually is playing out that way so far with the voters who already have a preference. Bernero is up 38-15 with liberals but Dillon is up 29-27 with moderates and 20-5 with conservatives. Bernero is up big with voters under 65 but a 34-18 advantage for Dillon with senior citizens is keeping it close overall.
This contest has a long way to go...
Full results here
Close GOP race in Michigan
Rick Snyder's winning the Republican primary for Governor of Michigan...while running third among actual GOP voters. That's because Michigan has open primaries and Snyder's up big with the independents planning to cast their votes on the Republican side.
It's an extremely close race at this point with 4 of the 5 candidates polling within five points of each other. Snyder's at 20%, followed by Pete Hoekstra at 19%, Mike Cox at 17%, and Mike Bouchard at 15%. Tom George is polling further back with his level of support currently at 9%.
Among Republicans it's actually Hoekstra at the top with 19%, followed by Cox at 18%, and Snyder at 16%. But with those independents, who account for a little more than 20% of the GOP primary electorate, Snyder leads the way with 36% followed by Bouchard at 24% and Hoekstra at 18%.
The GOP race is pretty volatile right now though with none of the candidates particularly well known. Cox is the most prominent but 36% of likely primary voters still don't have any opinion about him. 41% have no opinion about Hoekstra, 54% are ambivalent toward Bouchard, 56% don't know enough about Snyder to have formed an opinion, and George is a blank slate to 83% of those who say they'll vote in the August primary.
Hoekstra has a 4 point lead with conservatives but Snyder has the overall edge thanks to a 10 point advantage among moderates.
General election numbers we'll release tomorrow show Snyder would definitely be the strongest candidate for Republicans in the fall...but whether he'll have enough appeal to conservatives to survive the primary remains to be seen. This is going to be an interesting and closely fought race.
Full results here
It's an extremely close race at this point with 4 of the 5 candidates polling within five points of each other. Snyder's at 20%, followed by Pete Hoekstra at 19%, Mike Cox at 17%, and Mike Bouchard at 15%. Tom George is polling further back with his level of support currently at 9%.
Among Republicans it's actually Hoekstra at the top with 19%, followed by Cox at 18%, and Snyder at 16%. But with those independents, who account for a little more than 20% of the GOP primary electorate, Snyder leads the way with 36% followed by Bouchard at 24% and Hoekstra at 18%.
The GOP race is pretty volatile right now though with none of the candidates particularly well known. Cox is the most prominent but 36% of likely primary voters still don't have any opinion about him. 41% have no opinion about Hoekstra, 54% are ambivalent toward Bouchard, 56% don't know enough about Snyder to have formed an opinion, and George is a blank slate to 83% of those who say they'll vote in the August primary.
Hoekstra has a 4 point lead with conservatives but Snyder has the overall edge thanks to a 10 point advantage among moderates.
General election numbers we'll release tomorrow show Snyder would definitely be the strongest candidate for Republicans in the fall...but whether he'll have enough appeal to conservatives to survive the primary remains to be seen. This is going to be an interesting and closely fought race.
Full results here
Branstad under 50%
Terry Branstad served as Governor of Iowa for four terms. Bob Vander Plaats' only experience with political office has been losing campaigns for it. But fueled by support from conservatives and an anti-establishment environment Vander Plaats appears to at least have a chance at pulling a big upset in next week's primary. Branstad currently stands at a surprisingly low 46%, followed by Vander Plaats at 31% and Rod Roberts at 13%.
The race is particularly tight among the conservative voters who have been giving GOP establishment candidates fits across the country so far in 2010. With them Branstad leads Vander Plaats only 41-35. He expands his overall lead thanks to a 58-19 advantage with moderates.
Among voters that actually know who Vander Plaats is- whether they see him favorably or unfavorably- he leads Branstad 42-37. The question is if there's enough time left for Vander Plaats to completely make up the huge gap in name recognition he began the campaign with. 79% of voters have an opinion of Branstad, with it breaking down positively by a 59/20 margin. Meanwhile only 66% have an opinion of Vander Plaats with 47% seeing him favorably to 19% unfavorably.
There are very clear age divisions in the race. It's tied among voters under 45, who may not even remember Branstad's time as Governor. But he's up 55-20 with senior citizens, who are certainly likely to remember his tenure, and that's fueling most of his overall victory.
Branstad still has to be seen as the favorite but the race has shaped up closer than expected and it's one worth keeping an eye on in the final week.
Full results here
The race is particularly tight among the conservative voters who have been giving GOP establishment candidates fits across the country so far in 2010. With them Branstad leads Vander Plaats only 41-35. He expands his overall lead thanks to a 58-19 advantage with moderates.
Among voters that actually know who Vander Plaats is- whether they see him favorably or unfavorably- he leads Branstad 42-37. The question is if there's enough time left for Vander Plaats to completely make up the huge gap in name recognition he began the campaign with. 79% of voters have an opinion of Branstad, with it breaking down positively by a 59/20 margin. Meanwhile only 66% have an opinion of Vander Plaats with 47% seeing him favorably to 19% unfavorably.
There are very clear age divisions in the race. It's tied among voters under 45, who may not even remember Branstad's time as Governor. But he's up 55-20 with senior citizens, who are certainly likely to remember his tenure, and that's fueling most of his overall victory.
Branstad still has to be seen as the favorite but the race has shaped up closer than expected and it's one worth keeping an eye on in the final week.
Full results here
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