Wednesday, June 2, 2010

GOP up in Michigan

It's not real clear right now who will win the Democratic and Republican nominations for Governor in Michigan this year. But one thing does look pretty clear at this point- pretty much no matter who the winners are the GOP candidate will be strongly favored to win this fall.

The Republican candidate leads in nine out of ten possible general election match ups, with the only exception a 31-30 lead over Tom George for Virg Bernero. By far the strongest candidate looks to be Rick Snyder. He leads Andy Dillon 46-26 and Bernero 44-28 in potential contests. That's due in large part to his remarkable numbers with independents- he has a 46 point lead over Dillon and a 43 point one over Bernero with them. Of course Snyder's strong appeal to the center is a double edged sword because it's still an open question whether he can do well enough with conservatives to survive the primary. But if he does make it to November he will be very strongly favored.

Doing next best among the Republicans is Pete Hoekstra. He leads Bernero 41-34 and Dillon 41-32. Mike Bouchard posts the third strongest numbers with a 39-34 advantage over Bernero and a 38-29 one over Dillon. He is followed by Mike Cox, who is up 38-36 against Bernero and 40-32 in his head to head with Dillon. Finally George leads Dillon by a point while trailing Bernero by one. It's worth noting that Bernero on average does 3-4 points better when pitted against the Republicans than Dillon.

One problem for the Democrats at this point is that their candidates are simply unknown. More than 70% of voters have no opinion of Dillon and Bernero. Another problem for Democrats is that their outgoing Governor, Jennifer Granholm, has some of the worst approval numbers in the country. Only 29% of voters approve of the job she's doing with 61% disapproving- usually when a Governor has those kinds of numbers the voters don't put in another one of the same party.

It's a long way until November and things will almost definitely tighten up but the GOP is in a very strong position in this race.

Full results here

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

Jensen when is the next NC runoff poll

The Liberal Gamer said...

I am a voter in SE Michigan and I have not voted for a Republican since I turned 18 (2 elections ago). I consider myself an independent, not a democrat, but the republican party has never given me a reason to vote for one of their candidates. I have actually taken an interest in the republican primary as Rick Snyder appeals more to me than either of the democratic candidates. On the other hand, Pete Hoekstra makes me want to crawl in a hole and hibernate until he no longer holds a public office. I am definately not the only independent that feels that way about Hoekstra. Snyder will have a better chance of beating the democratic candidate, while I think Hoekstra will definitely start polling far worse vs the democrats if he ends up as the candidate. He has lots of ammunition to be used against him in a campaign.

 
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