We jumped right in and ran a poll last night with a head-to-head match-up of Elizabeth Dole versus Kay Hagan. Come back tomorrow to see the results.
Now that there are two announced Democratic candidates for Senate, hopefully PPP can end its monthly hypothetical match-ups.
Wednesday, October 31, 2007
Tuesday, October 30, 2007
Can illegal immigration be a winning issue?
Illegal immigration continues to grow as a major political issue, pushed mostly by conservatives. Questions 9, 10, and 11 of the recent Rasmussen Reports survey confirm that the public in North Carolina mostly agrees with the conservative position. Question 9, in particular, is evidence that it could be a winning issue.
How important is it for the government to improve its enforcement of the borders and reduce illegal immigration?
71% Very important
17% Somewhat important
8% Not very important
2% Not at all important
Unfortunately, for conservatives, that answer is negated by another Rasmussen question.
In terms of how you will vote for President in 2008, which of the following is the most important issue?
24% Economy
21% War on Terror
18% War in Iraq
11% Immigration
9% Healthcare
5% Other
4% Environment
Immigration, while still a big issue, is not the biggest. I would bet that nearly all of those 11% that say illegal immigration is the most important issue would not be voting for a Democratic candidate anyway. So while most North Carolinians may agree that illegal immigration is a problem and that government should do something about it, they care about something else even more; maybe the economy or the war in Iraq or Healthcare, all issues where Democrats do better.
So can illegal immigration be a winning issue? For conservatives it is a good issue to push, but it won't give them enough to win. Voters are looking for more.
How important is it for the government to improve its enforcement of the borders and reduce illegal immigration?
71% Very important
17% Somewhat important
8% Not very important
2% Not at all important
Unfortunately, for conservatives, that answer is negated by another Rasmussen question.
In terms of how you will vote for President in 2008, which of the following is the most important issue?
24% Economy
21% War on Terror
18% War in Iraq
11% Immigration
9% Healthcare
5% Other
4% Environment
Immigration, while still a big issue, is not the biggest. I would bet that nearly all of those 11% that say illegal immigration is the most important issue would not be voting for a Democratic candidate anyway. So while most North Carolinians may agree that illegal immigration is a problem and that government should do something about it, they care about something else even more; maybe the economy or the war in Iraq or Healthcare, all issues where Democrats do better.
So can illegal immigration be a winning issue? For conservatives it is a good issue to push, but it won't give them enough to win. Voters are looking for more.
Monday, October 29, 2007
Thoughts on Rasmussen poll
First of all it’s nice to see some third party polling from out of state. PPP, Civitas, and Elon do a tremendous job keeping public opinion in the forefront of North Carolina’s political dialogue, but it can get stale looking at the same numbers from the same people.
Second, Rasmussen Reports’ latest NC survey backs up what PPP has been showing in recent months regarding the 2008 races for President and US Senate. Elizabeth Dole is vulnerable. In a proposed Senate race she loses decisively to Gov. Mike Easley, 50% to 42%. Obviously, Mike Easley would be the Democrats’ best choice and any other Democrat would not perform that well. But if a majority of voters would already consider voting for someone other than the incumbent that’s not good news for her.
If the election were held today, North Carolina would be a tossup state in the presidential election. Of course that means that the Democrat had probably already gotten over 300 electoral votes from winning swing states like Ohio and Florida, and even some marginally red states like Colorado and Virginia.
But if the Democrats are competitive at the presidential level that can only be good news for a Senate candidate. The current fear being that Hillary Clinton on the ballot would be a drag for Democrats. In fact, a potential Democrat ticket of Hillary for President, Kay Hagan for Senate and Bev Perdue for Governor would create an opportunity for lots of back and forth coattails for women voters.
Third, even though Hillary is winning or close to winning in these match-ups, she would still probably lose according to Rasmussen’s numbers. She has higher unfavorable ratings and lower favorable ratings than the other Republican candidates, besides Mitt Romney. Fifty-one percent have an unfavorable view of her. She can beat Romney 46-41 now, but can she get to 50% on Election Day?
Second, Rasmussen Reports’ latest NC survey backs up what PPP has been showing in recent months regarding the 2008 races for President and US Senate. Elizabeth Dole is vulnerable. In a proposed Senate race she loses decisively to Gov. Mike Easley, 50% to 42%. Obviously, Mike Easley would be the Democrats’ best choice and any other Democrat would not perform that well. But if a majority of voters would already consider voting for someone other than the incumbent that’s not good news for her.
If the election were held today, North Carolina would be a tossup state in the presidential election. Of course that means that the Democrat had probably already gotten over 300 electoral votes from winning swing states like Ohio and Florida, and even some marginally red states like Colorado and Virginia.
But if the Democrats are competitive at the presidential level that can only be good news for a Senate candidate. The current fear being that Hillary Clinton on the ballot would be a drag for Democrats. In fact, a potential Democrat ticket of Hillary for President, Kay Hagan for Senate and Bev Perdue for Governor would create an opportunity for lots of back and forth coattails for women voters.
Third, even though Hillary is winning or close to winning in these match-ups, she would still probably lose according to Rasmussen’s numbers. She has higher unfavorable ratings and lower favorable ratings than the other Republican candidates, besides Mitt Romney. Fifty-one percent have an unfavorable view of her. She can beat Romney 46-41 now, but can she get to 50% on Election Day?
Rasmussen favorables
Candidate – Very Fav, Somewhat fav, somewhat unfav, very unfav, not sure
Clinton 26, 20, 14, 37, 3
Thompson 16, 34, 26, 15, 9
Giuliani 23, 28, 23, 20, 5
Romney 12, 30, 26, 21, 12
McCain 15, 34, 25, 19, 7
Dole 28, 25, 19, 22, 6
Easley 22, 36, 20, 18, 4
Mike Easley has the highest total favorable at 58%, followed by Elizabeth Dole (53%), Rudy Giuliani (51%) and Fred Thompson (50%). Hillary Clinton has the highest unfavorable total (51%) including a whopping 37% very unfavorable. Easley has the lowest total unfavorable rating (38%).
Clinton 26, 20, 14, 37, 3
Thompson 16, 34, 26, 15, 9
Giuliani 23, 28, 23, 20, 5
Romney 12, 30, 26, 21, 12
McCain 15, 34, 25, 19, 7
Dole 28, 25, 19, 22, 6
Easley 22, 36, 20, 18, 4
Mike Easley has the highest total favorable at 58%, followed by Elizabeth Dole (53%), Rudy Giuliani (51%) and Fred Thompson (50%). Hillary Clinton has the highest unfavorable total (51%) including a whopping 37% very unfavorable. Easley has the lowest total unfavorable rating (38%).
Saturday, October 27, 2007
Rasmussen polls NC
Hat tip to boldlyblue on BlueNC for noticing this first. You can see the release here and the toplines here.
Below are most of the results except for the favorability rankings, which are in table format and I couldn't copy and paste easily tonight. I will post them on Monday with some analysis.
In the meantime, have at it:
1) How do you rate the way that George W. Bush is performing his role as President? Excellent, good, fair, or poor?
20% Excellent
18% Good
16% Fair
46% Poor
1% Not Sure
2) How do you rate the way that Mike Easley is performing his role as Governor? Excellent, good, fair, or poor?
10% Excellent
37% Good
33% Fair
19% Poor
2% Not Sure
3) In the 2008 Election for the U.S. Senate suppose you had a choice between Republican Elizabeth Dole and Democrat Mike Easley. If the election were held today would you vote for Republican Elizabeth Dole or Democrat Mike Easley?
42% Dole
50% Easley
3% Some other candidate
4% Not sure
4) Presidential Matchups
Clinton 43 Giuliani 44
Clinton 44 Thompson 44
Clinton 43 McCain 43
Clinton 46 Romney 41
5) When it comes to the War in Iraq, should the United States withdraw all combat troops immediately, bring the combat troops home within a year, or stay until the mission is completed?
22% Withdraw all combat troops immediately
33% Bring combat troops home within a year
41% Stay until the mission is complete
4% Not sure
6) Should North Carolina move its Presidential primary to an earlier date to play a bigger role in presidential politics?
39% Yes
43% No
18% Not sure
7) How much does it matter what date North Carolina chooses to hold its Presidential Primary
24% Very much
36% Somewhat
24% Not very much
8% Not at all
9% Not sure
8) In terms of how you will vote for President in 2008, which of the following is the most important issue?
24% Economy
21% War on Terror
18% War in Iraq
11% Immigration
9% Healthcare
5% Other
4% Environment
8% Not sure
9) How important is it for the government to improve its enforcement of the borders and reduce illegal immigration?
71% Very important
17% Somewhat important
8% Not very important
2% Not at all important
2% Not sure
10) How important is it for the government to legalize the status of illegal aliens already in the United States?
28% Very important
20% Somewhat important
20% Not very important
25% Not at all important
7% Not sure
11) Suppose North Carolina had to choose between deporting as many illegal immigrants as it can or accepting those who are here already but blocking more illegal immigrants from entering the state. Which would you choose?
53% Deporting as many illegal immigrants as it can
37% Accepting those who are here already
10% Not sure
12) State and local governments often use tax breaks and other economic incentives to attract businesses and jobs. Should governments offer tax breaks and economic incentives to attract businesses?
53% Yes
29% No
18% Not sure
13) Are tax breaks and other economic incentives offered to businesses Too generous or not generous enough?
52% Too generous
21% Not generous enough
16% About right
10% Not sure
14) When it comes to separation of Church and State, does government go too far in regulating expressions of God and faith in public, not far enough, or is it about right.
66% Too far
12% Not far enough
18% About right
4% Not sure
Below are most of the results except for the favorability rankings, which are in table format and I couldn't copy and paste easily tonight. I will post them on Monday with some analysis.
In the meantime, have at it:
1) How do you rate the way that George W. Bush is performing his role as President? Excellent, good, fair, or poor?
20% Excellent
18% Good
16% Fair
46% Poor
1% Not Sure
2) How do you rate the way that Mike Easley is performing his role as Governor? Excellent, good, fair, or poor?
10% Excellent
37% Good
33% Fair
19% Poor
2% Not Sure
3) In the 2008 Election for the U.S. Senate suppose you had a choice between Republican Elizabeth Dole and Democrat Mike Easley. If the election were held today would you vote for Republican Elizabeth Dole or Democrat Mike Easley?
42% Dole
50% Easley
3% Some other candidate
4% Not sure
4) Presidential Matchups
Clinton 43 Giuliani 44
Clinton 44 Thompson 44
Clinton 43 McCain 43
Clinton 46 Romney 41
5) When it comes to the War in Iraq, should the United States withdraw all combat troops immediately, bring the combat troops home within a year, or stay until the mission is completed?
22% Withdraw all combat troops immediately
33% Bring combat troops home within a year
41% Stay until the mission is complete
4% Not sure
6) Should North Carolina move its Presidential primary to an earlier date to play a bigger role in presidential politics?
39% Yes
43% No
18% Not sure
7) How much does it matter what date North Carolina chooses to hold its Presidential Primary
24% Very much
36% Somewhat
24% Not very much
8% Not at all
9% Not sure
8) In terms of how you will vote for President in 2008, which of the following is the most important issue?
24% Economy
21% War on Terror
18% War in Iraq
11% Immigration
9% Healthcare
5% Other
4% Environment
8% Not sure
9) How important is it for the government to improve its enforcement of the borders and reduce illegal immigration?
71% Very important
17% Somewhat important
8% Not very important
2% Not at all important
2% Not sure
10) How important is it for the government to legalize the status of illegal aliens already in the United States?
28% Very important
20% Somewhat important
20% Not very important
25% Not at all important
7% Not sure
11) Suppose North Carolina had to choose between deporting as many illegal immigrants as it can or accepting those who are here already but blocking more illegal immigrants from entering the state. Which would you choose?
53% Deporting as many illegal immigrants as it can
37% Accepting those who are here already
10% Not sure
12) State and local governments often use tax breaks and other economic incentives to attract businesses and jobs. Should governments offer tax breaks and economic incentives to attract businesses?
53% Yes
29% No
18% Not sure
13) Are tax breaks and other economic incentives offered to businesses Too generous or not generous enough?
52% Too generous
21% Not generous enough
16% About right
10% Not sure
14) When it comes to separation of Church and State, does government go too far in regulating expressions of God and faith in public, not far enough, or is it about right.
66% Too far
12% Not far enough
18% About right
4% Not sure
Friday, October 26, 2007
Thursday, October 25, 2007
Bush approval compared to other states
Using Survey USA's October data, let's see how North Carolina's approval rating of President Bush compares to other states.
Approval%
44% Alabama
43% Kansas
41% Kentucky
38% New Mexico
36% Virginia
36% North Carolina (PPP)
35% Oregon
34% Ohio
33% Wisconsin
31% Missouri
29% Iowa
28% Minnesota
28% California
27% Washington
22% New York
20% Massachusetts
Approval%
44% Alabama
43% Kansas
41% Kentucky
38% New Mexico
36% Virginia
36% North Carolina (PPP)
35% Oregon
34% Ohio
33% Wisconsin
31% Missouri
29% Iowa
28% Minnesota
28% California
27% Washington
22% New York
20% Massachusetts
Dole compared to other Republicans
How does Elizabeth Dole’s approval rating compare to other Republican Senators up for re-election in 2008? Survey USA has a few from October…
PPP- Elizabeth Dole (NC)
44% Approve
41% Disapprove
Survey USA
Jeff Sessions (AL)
54% Approve
37% Disapprove
Gordon Smith (OR)
49% Approve
42% Disapprove
Norm Coleman (MN)
49% Approve
42% Disapprove
Mitch McConnell (KY)
49% Approve
45% Disapprove
PPP- Elizabeth Dole (NC)
44% Approve
41% Disapprove
Survey USA
Jeff Sessions (AL)
54% Approve
37% Disapprove
Gordon Smith (OR)
49% Approve
42% Disapprove
Norm Coleman (MN)
49% Approve
42% Disapprove
Mitch McConnell (KY)
49% Approve
45% Disapprove
Wednesday, October 24, 2007
Neal compared to other Democrats
How does Jim Neal fare compared to other Democrats we have tested? Here are all the head-to-head matchups with Dole that did not feature extensive biographical information.
Easley 44-41, +3%
Perdue 37-46, -9%
Cooper 36-46, -10%
Miller 33-44, -11%
Moore 34-45, -11%
Marshall 35-46, -11%
Etheridge 30-45, -15%
Martin 30-45, -15%
Neal 32-47, -15%
Meek 32-47, -15%
Kaplan 28-47, -19%
The timing has some impact on these results. For example, I bet Bob Etheridge would do better today than he did in February. But as you can see, Jim Neal is right in line with every other Democrat who is not a statewide elected official.
Easley 44-41, +3%
Perdue 37-46, -9%
Cooper 36-46, -10%
Miller 33-44, -11%
Moore 34-45, -11%
Marshall 35-46, -11%
Etheridge 30-45, -15%
Martin 30-45, -15%
Neal 32-47, -15%
Meek 32-47, -15%
Kaplan 28-47, -19%
The timing has some impact on these results. For example, I bet Bob Etheridge would do better today than he did in February. But as you can see, Jim Neal is right in line with every other Democrat who is not a statewide elected official.
Jim Neal vs. Elizabeth Dole
Getting right to it:
Dole vs. Neal
Dole 47%
Neal 32%
Neal performs similarly to other Democrats that lack statewide name recognition. His results are similar to Grier Martin, Kay Hagan and Jerry Meek. Dole is still below the 50% mark.
Bush Job Approval
Approve 36%
Disapprove 59%
Dole Job Approval
Approve 44%
Disapprove 41%
Bush and Dole fall a few points from last month.
Right-track/Wrong-track USA
Right direction 26%
Wrong track 67%
Right-track/Wrong-track North Carolina
Right direction 37%
Wrong track 47%
People feel significantly better about North Carolina than they do about the whole country, but neither is very positive.
Vote for Governor
Democrat 45%
Republican 38%
Vote for President
Democrat 44%
Republican 40%
As expected, the Democrats have an early advantage in the gubernatorial general election, but more surprisingly a generic Democrat continues to win for President in North Carolina. In May a generic Democrat was winning 47-42.
Complete results here.
Dole vs. Neal
Dole 47%
Neal 32%
Neal performs similarly to other Democrats that lack statewide name recognition. His results are similar to Grier Martin, Kay Hagan and Jerry Meek. Dole is still below the 50% mark.
Bush Job Approval
Approve 36%
Disapprove 59%
Dole Job Approval
Approve 44%
Disapprove 41%
Bush and Dole fall a few points from last month.
Right-track/Wrong-track USA
Right direction 26%
Wrong track 67%
Right-track/Wrong-track North Carolina
Right direction 37%
Wrong track 47%
People feel significantly better about North Carolina than they do about the whole country, but neither is very positive.
Vote for Governor
Democrat 45%
Republican 38%
Vote for President
Democrat 44%
Republican 40%
As expected, the Democrats have an early advantage in the gubernatorial general election, but more surprisingly a generic Democrat continues to win for President in North Carolina. In May a generic Democrat was winning 47-42.
Complete results here.
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