Monday, October 29, 2007

Thoughts on Rasmussen poll

First of all it’s nice to see some third party polling from out of state. PPP, Civitas, and Elon do a tremendous job keeping public opinion in the forefront of North Carolina’s political dialogue, but it can get stale looking at the same numbers from the same people.

Second, Rasmussen Reports’ latest NC survey backs up what PPP has been showing in recent months regarding the 2008 races for President and US Senate. Elizabeth Dole is vulnerable. In a proposed Senate race she loses decisively to Gov. Mike Easley, 50% to 42%. Obviously, Mike Easley would be the Democrats’ best choice and any other Democrat would not perform that well. But if a majority of voters would already consider voting for someone other than the incumbent that’s not good news for her.

If the election were held today, North Carolina would be a tossup state in the presidential election. Of course that means that the Democrat had probably already gotten over 300 electoral votes from winning swing states like Ohio and Florida, and even some marginally red states like Colorado and Virginia.

But if the Democrats are competitive at the presidential level that can only be good news for a Senate candidate. The current fear being that Hillary Clinton on the ballot would be a drag for Democrats. In fact, a potential Democrat ticket of Hillary for President, Kay Hagan for Senate and Bev Perdue for Governor would create an opportunity for lots of back and forth coattails for women voters.

Third, even though Hillary is winning or close to winning in these match-ups, she would still probably lose according to Rasmussen’s numbers. She has higher unfavorable ratings and lower favorable ratings than the other Republican candidates, besides Mitt Romney. Fifty-one percent have an unfavorable view of her. She can beat Romney 46-41 now, but can she get to 50% on Election Day?


Chris said...


One of the things I would like to see is if the 43-44% for Clinton is a floor or a ceiling.

Something tells me its much closer to a ceiling for her than a floor and that she will top out statewide at 45-46% (maybe a tad higher, but I doubt it).

She's a known commodity, unlike many of the Republican candidates.
Combine her unfav. rating with polling we did that showed 52% wouldn't vote for her no matter who the candidate is tells me that she may top out in the mid 40s and not be able to go much higher.

Whether she will have negative coattails down ballot remains to be seen.

Justin Guillory said...

The poll we did in June had Hillary going as high as 47% against Romney, but 45-43% against everyone else.

You may be right.

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