North Carolina voters are planning to choose Republicans at both the federal and state levels next year.
Our newest poll finds the GOP holding a 48-38 lead on the generic Congressional ballot and a 46-39 one on the generic legislative ballot.
There are two key reasons for the early Republican lean: independents are leaning toward them and they're more unified than the Democrats are. For Congress independents prefer Republicans 37-21 and for the legislature it's 34-23. 90% of Republicans but only 76% of Democrats plan to support their party in Congressional races and for the legislature those figures are 89% and 77%.
These high levels of Republican unity are becoming a constant in our polling across the country as the party's voters seem to realize they'll all have to be on the same page to avoid repeats of the disastrous 2006 and 2008 election cycles.
The generic Congressional numbers aren't that important. Unless Bob Etheridge ends up getting into the Senate race there's really only one seat that's shaping up to be at all competitive next year, and that's Larry Kissell's. We'll likely do a poll on how folks think he's done in his first year sometime next month.
The legislative numbers are more meaningful because there are probably somewhere in the neighborhood of a couple dozen seats that could be closely contested next year. A Republican takeover of the legislature is entirely possible in this climate. It just remains to be seen whether they'll be able to raise the money and recruit the candidates to take advantage of it. Democrats at the state level have often been able to weather bad years for the national party because of superior campaigns and fundraising.
And of course the election is 13 months away. Six months ago it would have been almost unthinkable that Democratic prospects could decline so much in such a short period of time, and there is certainly a possibility that things will be much rosier for the party a year from now than they are today.
Full results here
Tuesday, October 13, 2009
Virginia/Maine
We're going to poll Virginia and Maine this weekend, we're open to your question suggestions.
One thing I'm interested to see in Virginia is how Tim Kaine would be doing against Bob McDonnell if he was allowed to run for reelection. That would go a long way toward showing whether the current state of the race there speaks to broader Democratic issues or if it's more specifically a Creigh Deeds issue. Other ideas for questions that would do a good job of speaking to the state of the race?
Maine we'll look at the gay marriage ballot proposal, next year's Governor's race, and of course approvals on all the state's major politicians. Any other ideas?
One thing I'm interested to see in Virginia is how Tim Kaine would be doing against Bob McDonnell if he was allowed to run for reelection. That would go a long way toward showing whether the current state of the race there speaks to broader Democratic issues or if it's more specifically a Creigh Deeds issue. Other ideas for questions that would do a good job of speaking to the state of the race?
Maine we'll look at the gay marriage ballot proposal, next year's Governor's race, and of course approvals on all the state's major politicians. Any other ideas?
The Weight Issue
If Jon Corzine ends up getting reelected by a single point, Chris Christie's weight could end up being what puts him over the top.
Only 11% of New Jersey's voters think that Christie's weight is a legitimate issue in the campaign. Even so 19% of them say that his size makes them less likely to vote for him.
You might expect that group to be monolithically Democrats and Corzine supporters. But of the people who say that Christie's weight is a problem for them 19% are Christie voters, 16% are Daggett voters, and 9% are undecided. 56% are indeed Corzine supporters.
Overall 35% of voters in the state think Corzine is trying to make Christie's weight into an issue while 47% do not, and 18% aren't sure. Predictably it's Christie supporters calling foul- 61% of them think Corzine is trying to exploit his weight- while the incumbent's supporters plead innocent with only 8% saying they believe the Corzine camp is attempting to do that.
In a close election anything can, um, tip the scales.
Full results here
Only 11% of New Jersey's voters think that Christie's weight is a legitimate issue in the campaign. Even so 19% of them say that his size makes them less likely to vote for him.
You might expect that group to be monolithically Democrats and Corzine supporters. But of the people who say that Christie's weight is a problem for them 19% are Christie voters, 16% are Daggett voters, and 9% are undecided. 56% are indeed Corzine supporters.
Overall 35% of voters in the state think Corzine is trying to make Christie's weight into an issue while 47% do not, and 18% aren't sure. Predictably it's Christie supporters calling foul- 61% of them think Corzine is trying to exploit his weight- while the incumbent's supporters plead innocent with only 8% saying they believe the Corzine camp is attempting to do that.
In a close election anything can, um, tip the scales.
Full results here
Toss Up in New Jersey
After trailing by 9 points in our New Jersey Governor poll last month, Jon Corzine has now pulled within one. Chris Christie leads the race with just 40% to 39% for Corzine and 13% for independent candidate Chris Daggett.
Last month the race was 44-35-13 so Christie has seen a four point drop in his support and Corzine has had a corresponding four point gain while Daggett has remained in place.
It was thought that Corzine's only chance at winning was to make voters dislike Christie even more than him, but he actually has seen a gain in his favorability over the last month. While a majority of voters still don't care for him the 37/55 spread is a whole lot better than the 32/60 of a month ago.
For the first time more voters in the state have a negative opinion of Christie than a favorable one. 44% have an unfavorable opinion of him to 42% positive.
Since PPP's first survey of the contest in June Christie's positives have dropped a point and his negatives have risen by 11. Corzine's favorables have gained a point and his negatives have dropped one.
Corzine's gain since last month's poll is the results of two key trends: a consolidation of his support among Democrats and Christie losing some Republican and independent voters to Daggett.
Last month Corzine was getting 64% of the Democratic vote while Daggett was at 15%. Now Corzine's at 70% and Daggett's at just 10%, an indication that some Democrats who might have considered casting a 'spoiler' ballot for Daggett are now just sticking with the party.
Daggett seems to be drawing from the independent and Republican ranks to a greater extent than he was a month ago. In September Christie was earning 79% of the GOP vote to Daggett's 7%. Christie's dropped six points in his own party to 73% and Daggett's had a commensurate gain to 13%. Among independents what was a 48-16 lead for Christie compared to Daggett four weeks ago is now 42-19. Corzine's support is flat with both Republicans and independents but the shifts between Christie and Daggett have had the effect of bringing him closer overall.
With the race this close the final outcome may hinge on two things: turnout and what Daggett's voters do. The likely electorate at this stage only reports having supported Barack Obama by a four point margin last year, compared to his actual 15 point victory in New Jersey. If Democrats can narrow the enthusiasm gap and get more of their voters interested in the race over the last three weeks Corzine will probably pull it out.
Daggett's voters remain somewhat of a wild card. While 91% of Christie's voters say they're definitely going to vote for him and 88% of Corzine's say the same, just 44% of current Daggett voters say they're firmly committed to him. Asked who their second choice is Daggett supporters go for Christie by a 48-34 margin, so if a lot of them do end up jumping ship Christie might get a small boost.
Only one thing seems for sure about this contest: it's going to be a race to the finish and it will probably be decided on the last lap.
Full results here
Last month the race was 44-35-13 so Christie has seen a four point drop in his support and Corzine has had a corresponding four point gain while Daggett has remained in place.
It was thought that Corzine's only chance at winning was to make voters dislike Christie even more than him, but he actually has seen a gain in his favorability over the last month. While a majority of voters still don't care for him the 37/55 spread is a whole lot better than the 32/60 of a month ago.
For the first time more voters in the state have a negative opinion of Christie than a favorable one. 44% have an unfavorable opinion of him to 42% positive.
Since PPP's first survey of the contest in June Christie's positives have dropped a point and his negatives have risen by 11. Corzine's favorables have gained a point and his negatives have dropped one.
Corzine's gain since last month's poll is the results of two key trends: a consolidation of his support among Democrats and Christie losing some Republican and independent voters to Daggett.
Last month Corzine was getting 64% of the Democratic vote while Daggett was at 15%. Now Corzine's at 70% and Daggett's at just 10%, an indication that some Democrats who might have considered casting a 'spoiler' ballot for Daggett are now just sticking with the party.
Daggett seems to be drawing from the independent and Republican ranks to a greater extent than he was a month ago. In September Christie was earning 79% of the GOP vote to Daggett's 7%. Christie's dropped six points in his own party to 73% and Daggett's had a commensurate gain to 13%. Among independents what was a 48-16 lead for Christie compared to Daggett four weeks ago is now 42-19. Corzine's support is flat with both Republicans and independents but the shifts between Christie and Daggett have had the effect of bringing him closer overall.
With the race this close the final outcome may hinge on two things: turnout and what Daggett's voters do. The likely electorate at this stage only reports having supported Barack Obama by a four point margin last year, compared to his actual 15 point victory in New Jersey. If Democrats can narrow the enthusiasm gap and get more of their voters interested in the race over the last three weeks Corzine will probably pull it out.
Daggett's voters remain somewhat of a wild card. While 91% of Christie's voters say they're definitely going to vote for him and 88% of Corzine's say the same, just 44% of current Daggett voters say they're firmly committed to him. Asked who their second choice is Daggett supporters go for Christie by a 48-34 margin, so if a lot of them do end up jumping ship Christie might get a small boost.
Only one thing seems for sure about this contest: it's going to be a race to the finish and it will probably be decided on the last lap.
Full results here
Monday, October 12, 2009
More on New Jersey
Chris Christie did better in our Saturday and Sunday polling than on Friday- for whatever reason there were a disproportionate number of Corzine supporters at home that night and that's why we try to always do call backs over a period of several days.
But our poll is still another confirmation that this race has become a complete toss up.
One interesting thing is that Chris Daggett is not polling any better than he was a month ago- there's been a drop in Christie's support and a commensurate increase in Corzine's, a contrast from a lot of polls that have shown Christie dropping, Daggett gaining, and Corzine relatively flat. Corzine's gain is largely a result of his consolidating the Democratic vote.
A key thing to note with Daggett is that fewer than half of his supporters are firmly committed to voting for him, compared to around 90% of Corzine and Christie's. I still would not be surprised to see him end up just in single digits, although I also wouldn't be shocked if he pushed up closer to 20%. It's just hard to assess a wild card.
Anyway we'll have it out tomorrow morning, stay tuned!
But our poll is still another confirmation that this race has become a complete toss up.
One interesting thing is that Chris Daggett is not polling any better than he was a month ago- there's been a drop in Christie's support and a commensurate increase in Corzine's, a contrast from a lot of polls that have shown Christie dropping, Daggett gaining, and Corzine relatively flat. Corzine's gain is largely a result of his consolidating the Democratic vote.
A key thing to note with Daggett is that fewer than half of his supporters are firmly committed to voting for him, compared to around 90% of Corzine and Christie's. I still would not be surprised to see him end up just in single digits, although I also wouldn't be shocked if he pushed up closer to 20%. It's just hard to assess a wild card.
Anyway we'll have it out tomorrow morning, stay tuned!
In Depth: White Democrats in Eastern North Carolina
Want proof that North Carolina's changing? A black President from Chicago is more popular than a white Governor from New Bern with white Democrats in eastern North Carolina.
Those are the Jessecrats who for years split their tickets, voting Democratic at the state level but Republican for President and often for the Senate, particularly when Jesse Helms was on the ballot.
Now 45% of them approve of Barack Obama's job performance, with 49% disapproving, while just 35% of them approve of Bev Perdue's job performance, with 43% disapproving.
Of course the numbers for both the President and the Governor are pretty mediocre with that group of their party's voters, and that bodes pretty poorly for 2010.
A full third of them say they plan to vote Republican for the legislature next year, and in a region that saw many Democrats squeak to reelection last fall that has the potential to turn some seats over. And only 41% of them are committed to voting for a Democrat against Richard Burr next year, with 35% undecided, and 24% saying they'll vote for the Republican.
Close North Carolina elections have often swung on the votes of these white Democrats in the eastern part of the state who aren't always loyal to their party. Their power was diminished last year by the incredible spikes in turnout in the urban parts of the state, but if 2010 sees a reversion to more typical NC voting patterns these folks may once again play a pivotal role in determining control of the legislature and Burr's seat. Right now it's somewhere Democrats are going to have to step it up.
Those are the Jessecrats who for years split their tickets, voting Democratic at the state level but Republican for President and often for the Senate, particularly when Jesse Helms was on the ballot.
Now 45% of them approve of Barack Obama's job performance, with 49% disapproving, while just 35% of them approve of Bev Perdue's job performance, with 43% disapproving.
Of course the numbers for both the President and the Governor are pretty mediocre with that group of their party's voters, and that bodes pretty poorly for 2010.
A full third of them say they plan to vote Republican for the legislature next year, and in a region that saw many Democrats squeak to reelection last fall that has the potential to turn some seats over. And only 41% of them are committed to voting for a Democrat against Richard Burr next year, with 35% undecided, and 24% saying they'll vote for the Republican.
Close North Carolina elections have often swung on the votes of these white Democrats in the eastern part of the state who aren't always loyal to their party. Their power was diminished last year by the incredible spikes in turnout in the urban parts of the state, but if 2010 sees a reversion to more typical NC voting patterns these folks may once again play a pivotal role in determining control of the legislature and Burr's seat. Right now it's somewhere Democrats are going to have to step it up.
12% black turnout
I think the most interesting thing that few are paying attention to about last week's Washington Post Virginia poll is that it projects just 12% black turnout in a 20% black state.
I had written last week that I thought African American turnout could go as low as 13 or 14% there but it's still a remarkable finding, and scary for Democrats.
What that basically boils down to is whites turning out at a rate 20 points higher than blacks- i.e. 50% of white voters turn out and only 30% of African American ones do.
Let's put it this way- if that's where black turnout is next year, Glenn Nye and Tom Perriello can probably say goodbye to their Congressional seats. But maybe they'll do a better job of motivating the black community than Creigh Deeds has so far. Either way there are going to be a lot of southern Congressional districts Democrats are going to have a world of trouble in if black voters aren't engaged to a greater extent than what the Post is finding in Virginia.
It's going to be very difficult for Deeds to win unless the black percentage of the electorate is in the high teens. At 12% his chances are zero unless Bob McDonnell is caught with Edwin Edwards' proverbial 'dead girl or live boy.'
If I was the Deeds campaign getting black people excited about the election would probably be my #1 goal for the last three weeks- I don't know if it can be done but the chances of victory without it are close to nil.
I had written last week that I thought African American turnout could go as low as 13 or 14% there but it's still a remarkable finding, and scary for Democrats.
What that basically boils down to is whites turning out at a rate 20 points higher than blacks- i.e. 50% of white voters turn out and only 30% of African American ones do.
Let's put it this way- if that's where black turnout is next year, Glenn Nye and Tom Perriello can probably say goodbye to their Congressional seats. But maybe they'll do a better job of motivating the black community than Creigh Deeds has so far. Either way there are going to be a lot of southern Congressional districts Democrats are going to have a world of trouble in if black voters aren't engaged to a greater extent than what the Post is finding in Virginia.
It's going to be very difficult for Deeds to win unless the black percentage of the electorate is in the high teens. At 12% his chances are zero unless Bob McDonnell is caught with Edwin Edwards' proverbial 'dead girl or live boy.'
If I was the Deeds campaign getting black people excited about the election would probably be my #1 goal for the last three weeks- I don't know if it can be done but the chances of victory without it are close to nil.
Saturday, October 10, 2009
NJ Poll Preview
Our newest New Jersey poll started up last night and I was frankly taken aback by how well Jon Corzine did on the first night. We'll see if that holds through the weekend.
Beyond the basic stuff here's what we have coming:
-There's been a lot of discussion in the last week about whether the Corzine campaign is trying to exploit Chris Christie's weight so we asked folks if that has any impact on their vote and whether they think it's a legitimate issue. Not a lot of folks are saying yes to the latter but more than I would have expected are to the former. It'll be interesting to see if that's just hardcore partisans or Christie's actually being hurt by his size with swing voters.
-We also did another in our series of favorite/least favorite of the last five elected Governors questions. The overwhelming winner for most popular is a moderate Republican. You might think that bodes well for Christie...except that most voters think he's a conservative, a good sign for Corzine to be sure.
-And we also got in some Obama Nobel questions. Even in Blue New Jersey most voters don't think he deserved it and a lot of them think his winning diminishes the honor.
We'll have this all out next week.
Beyond the basic stuff here's what we have coming:
-There's been a lot of discussion in the last week about whether the Corzine campaign is trying to exploit Chris Christie's weight so we asked folks if that has any impact on their vote and whether they think it's a legitimate issue. Not a lot of folks are saying yes to the latter but more than I would have expected are to the former. It'll be interesting to see if that's just hardcore partisans or Christie's actually being hurt by his size with swing voters.
-We also did another in our series of favorite/least favorite of the last five elected Governors questions. The overwhelming winner for most popular is a moderate Republican. You might think that bodes well for Christie...except that most voters think he's a conservative, a good sign for Corzine to be sure.
-And we also got in some Obama Nobel questions. Even in Blue New Jersey most voters don't think he deserved it and a lot of them think his winning diminishes the honor.
We'll have this all out next week.
Friday, October 9, 2009
North Carolina Olympics 2020?
Folks have been giving Governor Perdue a lot of unsolicited advice lately about how to get her administration turned around so we thought we'd jump into the fray too. With a 24% approval rating incremental change isn't going to get the job done so we think she needs to do something big and attention grabbing...bring the 2020 Summer Olympics to North Carolina.
Now granted North Carolinians are pretty divided on this matter. 45% think the state should bid to host while 41% are opposed to the idea. The interesting thing about this though is that it isn't a heavily partisan issue. So often now when we poll on some policy initiative we find 90% of Democrats in favor and 90% of Republicans opposed. But reaction to the Olympics is much less fractured- 49% of liberals, 46% of moderates, and 43% of conservatives support going for it.
That means this is an issue where Perdue would have the opportunity to win over some of the crossover support that she's badly in need of. If you take the 24% of voters who already approve of Perdue and add in everyone who currently doesn't approve of Perdue but who wants the 2020 Olympics you're up to 60% of the electorate. Just get a little over 80% of those folks to support Perdue for reelection and she's got her eight years. Pat McCrory wouldn't even know what hit him!
Now granted there are some stumbling blocks. One problem is that both the Triangle and the greater Charlotte area, the two most logical hosts in the state, are pretty opposed to the Olympic bid. Based on popular support we're either going to have to have it in the Triad or in NE North Carolina. But let's have a can do attitude here- surely with a little expansion Dowdy-Ficklen in Greenville could be the Olympic Stadium. And the Greensboro Coliseum has been hosting world class events for years so we have a great basketball venue. Now we just need to start building all those hotels rooms in Ayden, Snow Hill, Archdale, and Mocksville.
So maybe the 2020 Olympics aren't the solution to Perdue's woes...but don't accuse us of not thinking outside the box.
Now granted North Carolinians are pretty divided on this matter. 45% think the state should bid to host while 41% are opposed to the idea. The interesting thing about this though is that it isn't a heavily partisan issue. So often now when we poll on some policy initiative we find 90% of Democrats in favor and 90% of Republicans opposed. But reaction to the Olympics is much less fractured- 49% of liberals, 46% of moderates, and 43% of conservatives support going for it.
That means this is an issue where Perdue would have the opportunity to win over some of the crossover support that she's badly in need of. If you take the 24% of voters who already approve of Perdue and add in everyone who currently doesn't approve of Perdue but who wants the 2020 Olympics you're up to 60% of the electorate. Just get a little over 80% of those folks to support Perdue for reelection and she's got her eight years. Pat McCrory wouldn't even know what hit him!
Now granted there are some stumbling blocks. One problem is that both the Triangle and the greater Charlotte area, the two most logical hosts in the state, are pretty opposed to the Olympic bid. Based on popular support we're either going to have to have it in the Triad or in NE North Carolina. But let's have a can do attitude here- surely with a little expansion Dowdy-Ficklen in Greenville could be the Olympic Stadium. And the Greensboro Coliseum has been hosting world class events for years so we have a great basketball venue. Now we just need to start building all those hotels rooms in Ayden, Snow Hill, Archdale, and Mocksville.
So maybe the 2020 Olympics aren't the solution to Perdue's woes...but don't accuse us of not thinking outside the box.
Thursday, October 8, 2009
Deeds, Corzine, and the Obama Coalition
There's been a lot of discussion about whether Barack Obama's key demographics- particularly African Americans and young people- will turn out in Virginia and New Jersey this year. Polls in both states have shown a 2009 electorate that voted for John McCain at a rate higher than the actual percentage of the vote he got last year, reflecting decreased interest from Obama supporters.
The underlying assumption in that discussion is that if those folks do turn out they will definitely vote for Creigh Deeds and Jon Corzine. But is that true? In each state the Democratic nominee is having trouble consolidating support with Obama supporters in one of those groups.
For Creigh Deeds it's African Americans. While Obama's approval rating with them continues to be 88%, Deeds is earning only 75% of their votes. Put another way he is polling at 81% with blacks who approve of Obama. That's pretty good but in a race that he's trailing Deeds really can't afford for that to be much under 95%. We'll see if he's able to close strongly with those voters in the last month. That will be pivotal to his having any chance to pull it out.
For Corzine the issue is voters under 30. Obama's approval rating with them is still a strong 56% but our last poll there found the Democratic nominee at just 22% with them, trailing Chris Christie and Chris Daggett who were each at 33%. A fresher SurveyUSA poll out today finds Corzine continuing to trail with that group, although only 44-40. Obama's appeal to young people doesn't quite seem to be translating into support for Corzine's reelection and improvement there would go a long way toward his winning in November.
We'll certainly be tracking these trends over the final 26 days.
The underlying assumption in that discussion is that if those folks do turn out they will definitely vote for Creigh Deeds and Jon Corzine. But is that true? In each state the Democratic nominee is having trouble consolidating support with Obama supporters in one of those groups.
For Creigh Deeds it's African Americans. While Obama's approval rating with them continues to be 88%, Deeds is earning only 75% of their votes. Put another way he is polling at 81% with blacks who approve of Obama. That's pretty good but in a race that he's trailing Deeds really can't afford for that to be much under 95%. We'll see if he's able to close strongly with those voters in the last month. That will be pivotal to his having any chance to pull it out.
For Corzine the issue is voters under 30. Obama's approval rating with them is still a strong 56% but our last poll there found the Democratic nominee at just 22% with them, trailing Chris Christie and Chris Daggett who were each at 33%. A fresher SurveyUSA poll out today finds Corzine continuing to trail with that group, although only 44-40. Obama's appeal to young people doesn't quite seem to be translating into support for Corzine's reelection and improvement there would go a long way toward his winning in November.
We'll certainly be tracking these trends over the final 26 days.
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