Monday, October 12, 2009

12% black turnout

I think the most interesting thing that few are paying attention to about last week's Washington Post Virginia poll is that it projects just 12% black turnout in a 20% black state.

I had written last week that I thought African American turnout could go as low as 13 or 14% there but it's still a remarkable finding, and scary for Democrats.

What that basically boils down to is whites turning out at a rate 20 points higher than blacks- i.e. 50% of white voters turn out and only 30% of African American ones do.

Let's put it this way- if that's where black turnout is next year, Glenn Nye and Tom Perriello can probably say goodbye to their Congressional seats. But maybe they'll do a better job of motivating the black community than Creigh Deeds has so far. Either way there are going to be a lot of southern Congressional districts Democrats are going to have a world of trouble in if black voters aren't engaged to a greater extent than what the Post is finding in Virginia.

It's going to be very difficult for Deeds to win unless the black percentage of the electorate is in the high teens. At 12% his chances are zero unless Bob McDonnell is caught with Edwin Edwards' proverbial 'dead girl or live boy.'

If I was the Deeds campaign getting black people excited about the election would probably be my #1 goal for the last three weeks- I don't know if it can be done but the chances of victory without it are close to nil.


Anonymous said...

Not surprising. No Obama on the ticket, Sheila Johnson endorsing McDonnell and Douglas Wilder not endorsing Deeds.

Along with Deeds being a conservative Democrat from Bath County where just 6% of the population is Black, why would they turn out?

Anonymous said...

Why should black voters be motivated? Obama hasn't kept one promise, and ya only get to elect the first "black" president once. That wave has passed. The ship has sailed. The horse is out of the barn. 15% turnout at best.

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