We're going to have a ton of stuff out next week:
*NC-8: We'll look at the Republican House runoff between Tim D'Annunzio and Harold Johnson as well as the general election match ups with Larry Kissell both head to head and including Wendell Fant as a third party candidate. We started this poll last night and I've never seen such a huge disparity between how two potential opponents fared against an incumbent...Republican leaders are absolutely correct that Johnson is viable for the fall and D'Annunzio is not.
*Illinois: We're looking at the races for Governor and Senate with a particular focus on how much attention the voters are paying to the controversy about Mark Kirk's military record. For fun we're gaging the approval ratings of Lou Piniella, Ozzie Guillen, and Tony LaRussa with their teams' partisans.
*Louisiana: The main focus here is obviously the oil spill. We're asking a bunch of stuff about about how Obama's handled it, how Bush handled Katrina, who they think did a better job, what they think about offshore drilling, etc. And we'll also take a look at one of the most infrequently polled potentially competitive Senate races in the country between David Vitter and Charlie Melancon.
Looking forward I'm interested in doing a Virginia poll next week...the state has seen virtually no polling since the change in administration. I'm interested in seeing how Bob McDonnell and Ken Cuccinelli have held up, looking at how voters feel about Jim Webb and George Allen, etc. Virginians let's crowdsource this poll- what do we need to be asking?
We'll do at least one and maybe two 2010 race polls next weekend as well...what states should we look toward next? Have a good weekend!
New Mexico. The primary is over, the attack ads have begun and polling shows it is a close race.
ReplyDeleteCalifornia governor, NYS AG and Comptroller, PA Gov/Senate, and Florida Gov and AG
ReplyDeleteWhile the Utah GOP Senate primary isn't that big a deal, the winner will win in November, it is the next big race on June 22. You could also look at approval ratings for Hatch and Chaffetz and maybe put them together.
ReplyDeleteOregon, Wisconsin, Missouri, New Hampshire.
It's time someone besides Rasmussen polled the Missouri senate race. While you're at it, take a look at MO-4, where 17-term Rep. Ike Skelton tries to hold onto an R+14 district.
ReplyDeleteOHIO, two major tier one headline races and a lot of other competitive statewides
ReplyDeletePoll these Virginia matchups:
ReplyDeleteSenate 2012: James Webb vs George Allen
Senate 2012: James Webb vs Kenneth Cuccinelli
President 2012: Barack Obama vs Robert McDonnell
Senate 2014: Mark Warner vs Robert McDonnell
Washington! Wisconsin maybe too!
ReplyDeleteCan you poll the Maine governor's race? All that's out right now is Rasmussen.
ReplyDeleteWisconsin please.
ReplyDelete1. Nevada
ReplyDelete2. Wisconsin
3. Florida
All Senate, please.
poll the sc gov race in the general (haley and barret vs. sheheen) and alvin greene vs. demint
ReplyDeleteNH-Sen should be surveyed because there is not a reliable poll that has been released since it was revealed that the NRSC's hand-picked candidate, Kelly Ayotte was faulted for not prosecuting a multi-million dollar ponzi scheme or the fact that she trashed her state records before quiting her government job to run for Senate. The NH statewide polls are generally not reliable and are overly generic.
ReplyDeleteHow could you possibly ask a Wendell Fant question as a head to head?
ReplyDeleteAssuming he even shows his face after his ethics violations, it's still Kissell (D), D'Annunzio (R) or Johnson (R) versus Hill (L), if Wendell shows his face as an (I).
Don't make me come up to Raleigh and teach PPP how to poll.
Nevada. The only ones with a post-primary poll out on the Senate race is Rasmussen, whose veracity is, mildly put, disputed.
ReplyDeleteAsk about don't ask, don't tell. Jim Webb was a Democrat who opposed it.
ReplyDeleteBe sure to ask about the approvals about Mark Warner.
Poll at least Obama vs Generic R Matchup in Virginia (this will be a close state again, you don't have any reason not to do this)
Poll Webb vs someone besides Allen in 2012
Ask about a generic state legislative ballot. Democrats must control at least one body to have any part in redistricting. (which will gerrymander Nye and VA-05)
Ask about healthcare repeal and Cuccinelli
Ask about the amount of conservative Democrats in the state (and how they lean)
How about Georgia? The primary is 7/20 and the Democratic primary for Gov is competitive, as is the Barrow-Thomas primary in GA12.
ReplyDeleteIt is time, as mentioned above, that someone other than rasmussen poll Missouri or Nevada. (I am absolutely sure Reid is not -11 to Angle).
ReplyDeleteIt is also time PPP start looking at congressional districts besides ones in NC. Try looking at WV-01 (a good state to see the Rust Belt factor in 2010), MO-04, (is Skeleton really in trouble?), or IL-11 (Some people say Halvorson in this suburban Chicago district might be vulnerable) Try and clear up how these members are doing.
Otherwise, poll Delaware (you haven't been there in a while!), or Georgia where Barnes appears to provide Democrats with a place to maybe win.
Jensen, poll favorable/unfavorable for Carol Mosley Braun in Illinois
ReplyDeletePoll on offshore drilling. McDonnell was elected with a platform dependent heavily on offshore drilling to pay for transportation projects and it was widely popular. How much has support for offshore drilling in Virginia dropped after the BP spill?
ReplyDeletePoll Indiana Senate. Please, please, we Hoosier dems are going crazy!
ReplyDeletePennsylvania.
ReplyDeleteWe've polled SC twice in the last month, including a Haley/Sheheen matchup in May (Haley led 44-34).
ReplyDeleteMaryland. Rasmussen has the race tied 45-45.
ReplyDeletePat
Missouri-SEN! Missouri-SEN! Missouri-SEN! and South Carolina Gov and Sen.
ReplyDeleteSo many Senate races to choose from. I wanted to see Washington and Wisconsin polls last week to see how the entry of Rossi and Johnson affected those races. Of course I would also be interested in polls in Nevada, Kentucky, and/or Florida to see how recent events affected those states.
ReplyDeletePlease TEXAS governor and Chet Edwards. All we get is Rasmussen B.S.
ReplyDeleteOk, seriously, the lack of polling here is diabolical. Tom, if you have any humanity, quench my thirst and poll Indiana senate! No one knbows what is going on here.
ReplyDeleteYou should poll the Maine gubernatorial race, so we can see how closely it aligns with Rasmussen
ReplyDeleteIndiana would be a great place to poll. The senate race, the third district,the eighth and the ninth districts, state house and senate, Mike Pence and Mitch Daniels, two possible presidential candidates, should have their favorabilities checked. And obviously the senate race, which may very well be the most underpolled close race in America. Also the second district.
ReplyDeletePlease poll Virginia Lieutenant Governor Bill Bolling's approval ratings. He is probably the odds on favorite to receive the Republican nomination for governor of Virginia in 2013. He also might run for US Senate at some point. Virginia also has 4 House districts that are at least somewhat competitive, the 2nd, 5th, 9th, and 11th. Some time ago, you polled New Mexico and along with the governor's race there, you polled all of its House races. I would like for you to do the same for at least some of the competitive Virginia House races. Also, please poll the favorability or approval ratings (not sure if there is a difference) for Terry McAuliffe and Chap Petersen. Both of them have run as Democrats statewide, albeit they did not receive their party's nominations (McAuliffe for Governor and Petersen for Lieutenant Governor). With more seasoning, both might run statewide in 2013.
ReplyDeleteFor the posters who want Indiana polled, Tom has said a couple of times and once within the last week that Indiana can't be realistically polled by PPP because it only allows random digit dialing polling under restrictive circumstances.
Virginia: poll the support for De-Funding ObamaCare. Plenty of polls on repeal, no poll yet on de-funding
ReplyDeleteI don't know if this is possible because of cost, but I would love to see a poll of the Alaska Senate race. As far as I know, we haven't had any public poll of that race since 2008, and I'd like to see if a)Murkowski has taken any hits to her popularity like other senators b)how vulnerable she is to her Palin-endorsed teabagger challenge c)what general election prospects look like for Vondersaar in either case
ReplyDeleteIf you are polling George Allen v. Jim Webb, you should poll Cucinelli and Bolling v. Webb. From what I hear from some VA Republicans, they would love to dump Allen and have Bolling or Cucinelli go against Webb and then the other run for Governor. Either is more electable than George Allen and it prevents a bloody primary in 2013. Also if you have time, maybe some Illinois congressional races.
ReplyDeleteDustin,
ReplyDeleteDid you guys not poll the 2012 primary nationally or the primary in North Carolina?
Poll Tom Davis against Webb, when he decided to not run against Warner, he mentioned that Webb looked pretty vulnerable, sounds like he was hinting at a run. Also poll Warner's ratings, last Virginia poll showed him far ahead other Democrats, is that still true?
ReplyDeleteIndiana is full of gret data to be reaped. Daniels popularity and approval,several cool races as well as the vastly under polled senate race. Maybe poll the favorability of Bayh and Lugar. And maybe test some 2012 presidential and gubernatorial numbers. This state begs to be polled by an awesome pollster.
ReplyDelete1) OHIO (both Senate and Governor's race)
ReplyDelete2) Indiana Senate
3) Kentucky Senate
It would also be great to poll OH-1 (Driehaus) and other congressional districts where other polls have previously claimed extreme incumbent vulnerability.
Definitely Washington and Wisconsin. Nothing against Rasmussen, but like any pollster, he needs to be checked and no other credible pollster has polled either race in the past few months.
ReplyDelete"Did you guys not poll the 2012 primary nationally or the primary in North Carolina?"
ReplyDeleteThe national GOP presidential primary numbers are coming out Monday. We didn't poll it in NC, however.
Ohio or Missouri or Georgia. They're all equal to me. And, I should like to mention, everybody here is complaining about rasmussen. I agree, and I know it is erly in the cycle, but i wish another pollster polled as regularly as they do.
ReplyDeleteMissouri would be a great place to do a comprehensive poll.
ReplyDeleteOhio is the way to go. Senate, governor and several house seats.
ReplyDeleteGeorgia's races should be polled. I'm interested in all the obvious races, but also legislature wuld be great. If Georgia is polled, a must poll: those who are voting for Roy Barnes and Mike Thurmond, and vice versa. Lets see if there's a massive difference.
ReplyDeleteif you going to poll virginia then you should also poll new jersey and also NJ-6 NJ-12 and NJ-3
ReplyDeleteOhio tom, Ohio! Its one of the few true barnburners this early in the cycle. But i'd also like to see Georgia polled. Conflicted!
ReplyDeletePlease do Missouri.
ReplyDeletePoll Gerogia, and all of its interesting races.
ReplyDeleteArizona's 8th congressional district looks like it might be an interesting race. The New Hampshire congressional races might also be interesting, both primary and general.
ReplyDeleteWashington. Wasn't yet done by PPP this cycle, No clear picture on race from very few pollsters, Rasmussen had Murray with small lead, SUSA had Rossi leading, R2k (which went under) had Murray with big lead, University of Washington had a very unclear and weird poll.
ReplyDeleteWisconsin can use a poll too. Senate race cleared up pretty much. Good GOP pickup opportunity in governorship.
ReplyDeleteCongratulations on your expansion and publicity! I see that you doubled your Twitter followers from before your well-publicized accurate MA-SEN poll in January. Over 4,000 folowers! Keep it up!
ReplyDeleteGeorgia really needs a good polling. Thurmond at least somewhat changes the dynamics for both the governor's race and the senate race.
ReplyDeleteMurray-Rossi
ReplyDeleteFor me the more interesting poll about Louisiana would be a poll for LA-02 district.
ReplyDeleteVirginia 2012? nothing for poll about 2010 elections?
Someone should poll:
ME-Gov
VT-Gov
WI-Gov
NH-Sen
HI-01
Ok, tom, you need to make sure you poll Virginia 5 with Hurt, and then Hurt and the consrevative independent.
ReplyDeleteOregon. I would like to see someone besides Rasmussen poll that state, and also include Congressional districts 1 and 5 as well.
ReplyDeleteOregon. Someone besides Rasmussen should poll the Kitzahber vs. Dudley race, and should include OR-1 and OR-5 also.
ReplyDeleteI would like to see Washington polled also, as well as Wisconsin.
For Virginia, perhaps you could poll potential Webb 2012 matchups, as well as the four congressional districts that are actively contested.