For the first time since December PPP finds Democrats leading on the generic Congressional ballot, albeit by the insignificant margin of 43-41.
The biggest reason for the shift is that the party is becoming more unified. Democratic voters are planning to support their candidates by a 76 point margin, 84-8. That represents an 11 point increase from March when it was just 65 points at 80-15.
Compared to that March survey, when the GOP had a 46-43 generic ballot advantage, Democrats are also seeing some good news with independents. They still lean toward the Republicans by a 36-21 margin but that 15 point deficit is smaller than the 44-26 gap that existed previously. Perhaps more important 43% of independents are now in the undecided column compared to just 30% back in the winter. That's an indication those voters are at least back up for grabs for Democrats to win.
The approval numbers of Congressional Democrats are still abysmal but seeing some improvement. 35% of voters think they're doing a good job with 54% disapproving. Back in March it was a 31/56 spread. The big movement, like on the generic ballot, has come with the party's own members. They give their leaders in Washington a 68/19 approval now where it was previously 57/27.
The health care debate caused a big divide within the Democratic Party and may have driven down both the generic ballot standing of the party earlier this year and the poll numbers of its candidates in individual races. With that issue in the rear view mirror the party's voters are much more on the same page and as a result the numbers are getting better.
Congressional Republicans continue to be as unpopular as can be, with only 20% of voters approving of them to 62% disapproving. Most staggering are their numbers with independents- only 11% think they're doing a good job to 66% who believe they aren't.
Democrats are not out of the woods by any means- it's still going to be a very tough year- but things are looking a lot better than they did six months ago for the party.
Full results here
2010 won't be a D+9 party ID advantage either, so you should at least give that disclaimer in your post.
ReplyDeleteTom, please clarify if this is with registered voters or with likely voters. Thanks
ReplyDeleteRepublicans do better with likely voters:
ReplyDeleteDemocracy Corps (D)
Likely voters Obama approval negative (46-49)
Likely voters are more cool towards The Democratic Party and The Democratic Congress and Democratic incumbents and Barack Obama... and more warm towards Republican incumbents and pro-life groups.
Likely voters favor Republicans 46-43 on generic ballot.
This sample of likely voters is also more likely to believe the economy has started to improve (they have more room to be disappointed).
http://www.gqrr.com/articles/2450/5706_dcor051810fq5%20PUBLIC%20WEB.pdf
Independents are closer to Republicans on the need for a change in Congress, rather than settling for the incumbents we have now. Even Democrats aren't very enthusiastic about the incumbents.
ReplyDelete"82% of Republicans – and 77% of voters not affiliated with either party – say it would be better for the country if most congressional incumbents were defeated. But perhaps more surprisingly, despite their party’s control of Congress, Democrats are evenly divided on the question." (Rasmussen)