Tuesday, August 24, 2010

The Chiles Effect?

When Bud Chiles first got into the race for Florida Governor it seemed like just another piece of bad news for an Alex Sink campaign that didn't seem to be going anywhere. She was already trailing Bill McCollum in the polls and it seemed like Chiles, as the son of a popular former Democratic Governor, would just pull even more votes from Sink.

It hasn't exactly worked out that way though. Instead general election numbers we'll release tomorrow show that most of Chiles' support is coming from Republicans. If Rick Scott is the GOP nominee 47% of Chiles voters are Republicans and 30% are Democrats. If Bill McCollum is the nominee 46% of Chiles voters are Republicans and 42% are Democrats. It seems what his candidacy is actually doing is providing a landing spot for Republican voters who dislike one of their primary choices so much they won't support them in the general if they get the nomination. Of course whether that holds after there's been some time to heal remains to be seen.

We'll have those general election numbers out for Governor tomorrow.


Anonymous said...

I beg to differ with you Tom, but I see Bud Chiles being far more of a problem for Alex Sink, than what he would have been had Bill McCullum been the Republican nominee. I foresee Rick Scott, in the coming weeks, opening up a somewhat comfortable lead over Sink, as Chiles fades into relative obscurity. Scott, I surmise, will win in November - going away.

Arnold E. Gibbs said...

I am not sure what a comment is worth from someone that won't identify themselves, but I think they are totally wrong. I think the polling is the most accurate I have seen so far. As a 67 year old, third generation Native Floridian, with No Party Affiliation, who has followed Florida politics all his life, I don't beleive that Floridians are going to let a rich, shady, upstart that knows nothing about the history of this State,who has contributed nothing to the betterment of this State, buy the Governor's Mansion.

Dustin Ingalls said...

I suppose our crosstabs from today's results will somewhat change your mind. With Scott as the nominee, Chiles actually takes slightly more of the GOP vote than he does of the Democratic vote, and a little more of the independent vote than against McCollum (with Sink leading indies by 9 regardless). Had McCollum won, Chiles would have polled much stronger, getting even proportions of both Democrats and Republicans.

Al Pippin said...

Arnold E. Gibbs,
Up until now, I hadn't realized that posting my name, or not, made my comments any more or less worthy or credible. I've always considered those comments as having no relevance whatsoever to any specific name or identity - one way or the other. I would think and hope that the REAL "worth" of one's opinion - mine or otherwise, would or should be based soley upon the credible merits of that opinion - and nothing more. Whether one agrees or disagrees is clearly a choice for each individual to make.

As for you being a third generation native Floridian, with no party affiliation - All that that means to me is that you're devoid of any and all ideologically defined values or principles, with little if any discernable convictions - who also happens to be from Florida.

Have a good day.

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