Tuesday, August 31, 2010

Chiles' Impact

What impact does Bud Chiles dropping out have in Florida? You can argue it either way.

Those planning to vote for Chiles on our poll last week:

-Voted for John McCain by a 62/33 margin in 2008
-Disapprove of Barack Obama by a 69/31 margin
-Were 47% Republican, 30% Democratic, and 23% independent

Contrary to conventional wisdom the Chiles voters were Republican and conservative leaning folks quite unhappy with the Democrats. So you might expect his dropping out to actually benefit Rick Scott.

The only problem with that- 60% of them have an unfavorable opinion of Scott while only 15% see him favorably. Chiles was a landing spot for folks who didn't like Scott or the Democrats. With him out those folks are going to have to make a lesser of two evils choice- does it bother us more to vote for a guy we dislike or to vote for a Democrat? My guess is it ends up being a wash and having no real effect on the race.


Anonymous said...

Tom, with making a clown poll for Grayson (D-FL-8) that gives 23% for some other candidate, you're ruining your company! None of internal pollsters cook the books that far!

Anonymous said...

But it does show that even in a twisted internal poll, Grayson couldn't put himsef above 40%, He's probably headed for a crushing defeat a la Hostetler in '06 by Brad Ellsworth.

Anonymous said...

I have a question. You said Scott's fav/unfav among Bud Chiles supporters was 15%/60%. What are Alex Sink's fav/unfav numbers among Bud Chiles supporters????????

Zornorph said...

Sink will get some good press out of it as I imagine Chiles will endorse her, but then the numbers will slowly move back to the GOP. Scott has enough money to get his favorables back up a bit and to take Sink's down. Without a third candidate in the race, I see more people holding their nose and voting for Scott than Sink. That's how it looks down here in FL, anyway. Curious to see a new poll, now.

Anonymous said...

If Chiles could have raised the money and picked right Lt. Gov. , such as Al Lawson, he would have won.

Dustin Ingalls said...

"If Chiles could have raised the money and picked right Lt. Gov. , such as Al Lawson, he would have won."

If the dog hadn't stopped to take a crap in the woods....

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