The Dems' Bad Midwest

There's little doubt that the Midwest is the Democrats' toughest region this year. If the election was today the party would almost certainly lose the Governorships it holds in Iowa, Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. It's also more than likely at this point to lose the Senate seats it has in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Indiana, miss out on a once promising pick up opportunity in Ohio, and quite possibly lose their seat in Illinois as well. And there are too many House seats the party could lose in the region to count.

The question then is: what's going on in the Midwest? Here are four of the main reasons:

-Unpopular Democratic Governors.

Our last Ohio poll found Ted Strickland with a 34% approval rating and 52% of voters disapproving of him. That makes him the most popular Democratic Governor in the region:

State	Governor	Approval
Ted Strickland	Ohio	34/52
Jim Doyle	Wisconsin	29/62
Jennifer Granholm	Michigan	29/63
Chet Culver	Iowa	28/56
Ed Rendell	Pennsylvania	27/63
Pat Quinn	Illinois	23/53

When voters think the Democrats they have now are doing such a bad job they're not particularly inclined to keep the ones running for reelection or to replace the retiring ones with other Democrats.

-An Unusual Souring on Obama

Nationally we find 88% of the people who voted for Barack Obama in 2008 are still happy with the job he's doing. But significantly larger portions of his voters have become disenchanted throughout the Midwest:

State	% of Obama voters still approving
Illinois	87
Ohio	82
Iowa	82
Michigan	79
Pennsylvania	78
Wisconsin	78

Obviously the more unhappy Obama's voters are the more likely they are to support Republicans this year and that's a trend we're seeing throughout the region.

-The Biggest Enthusiasm Gaps

Democrats are having problems turning out their base everywhere but perhaps because voters in the region are down on Obama and their Democratic Governors that's turning out to be a particularly dramatic problem in the Midwest:

State	2010 Electorate	2008 Vote	Gap
Illinois	Obama +9	Obama +25	16 pts
Michigan	Obama +1	Obama +16	15 pts
Wisconsin	Even	Obama +14	14 pts
Pennsylvania	McCain +1	Obama +10	11 pts
Iowa	Even	Obama +10	10 pts
Ohio	McCain +3	Obama +4	7 pts

Obama won these states by double digits but the 2010 electorate would make all of them except Illinois into toss ups...and there's a lot more Obama voters choosing Republicans this time than the other way around. There is perilously low interest in the midterm election among Midwestern Democrats.

A Collapse with Independents

Independents are leaning toward the GOP everywhere but the trend is particularly dramatic in the Midwest:

Race	Republican Lead w/Independents
Michigan Governor	40
Pennsylvania Governor	32
Iowa Senate	30
Pennsylvania Senate	27
Illinois Governor	25
Illinois Senate	16
Iowa Governor	16
Ohio Senate	13
Wisconsin Governor	12
Ohio Governor	11
Wisconsin Senate	11

There are more Democrats than Republicans in most of these states but not enough to make up for these kinds of gaps with independents.