There's a couple ways to look at that. One is that polling frequently underestimates Democratic performance with black voters further out from an election and that 90% of them will vote Democratic as they usually do. If that's the case polls right now are underestimating the party's candidates across the board and Democrats won't do as poorly in November as the current conventional wisdom. The other way to look at it is that black voters, like other voters, are less enthused with the Democrats than they are in the average election cycle and will indeed support them at a lower rate than usual.
If I had to guess I'd say Democratic candidates will end up doing a lot better with black voters than they are currently, but that the level of support they receive will not quite be at its usual lofty levels. Democratic support from African Americans may more often this year end up in the 80% plus or minus 5 points range instead of the 90% plus or minus 5 points range.
Here's the data comparing Obama's approval with blacks to the support level of Democratic Senate and Gubernatorial candidates with them in states where the black population is at least 10%:
| Race | Obama Approval w/Blacks | Democrat w/Blacks (Dropoff) |
| Illinois Governor | 88% | Pat Quinn 41% (47) |
| Florida Senate | 79% | Kendrick Meek 48% (31) |
| Texas Governor | 90% | Bill White 62% (28) |
| Pennsylvania Governor | 80% | Dan Onorato 56% (24) |
| North Carolina Senate | 87% | Elaine Marshall 67% (20) |
| Florida Governor | 79% | Alex Sink 60% (19) |
| Illinois Senate | 88% | Alexi Giannoulias 69% (19) |
| Delaware Senate | 82% | Chris Coons 63% (19) |
| Michigan Governor | 74% | Virg Bernero 57% (17) |
| Pennsylvania Senate | 80% | Joe Sestak 64% (16) |
| Ohio Senate | 84% | Lee Fisher 68% (16) |
| Missouri Senate | 78% | Robin Carnahan 67% (11) |
| Ohio Governor | 84% | Ted Strickland 79% (5) |
On average the Democratic nominees are running 21 points behind Obama's approval with black voters. Closing that gap is going to be key to winning these races or in some cases even making them competitive.
This is the consequence of publicly dismissing the President's accomplishments--it's the same lukewarm support that we saw with Coakley in MA and Deeds in VA.
ReplyDeleteTom- What do you mean by "support level" for each Dem among blacks? I'm just curious as to what measure you used to determine this. Is it approval for the Dem or some sort of intent to vote measure? I assume approval but just wanted to make sure! Thanks.
ReplyDeleteIt's their % of the black vote in the horse races.
ReplyDeleteWe owe it all to Michael Steele's fantastic work in the last two years, fo shizzle. :)
ReplyDeleteFolks,
ReplyDeleteUnemployment rate among blacks is 16.3%. Unemployment rate among teens in black community is 45%. This election is going to have historical low turnout among blacks. That means, lot of races like NY senate, California senate will go to the republican column.
Wait. Isn't this normal in midterms? Did this happen in 2009 midterms in NJ/VA?
ReplyDelete"That means, lot of races like NY senate, California senate will go to the republican column."
ReplyDeleteUnlikely either of those do. CA's moving back Boxer's way, and we'll see what we find if we do end up doing NY, but it's unlikely Gillibrand wins by less than 10 even in a depressed-Dem-turnout year.
"This election is going to have historical low turnout among blacks. That means, lot of races like NY senate, California senate will go to the republican column."
ReplyDeleteI agree with Dustin that those two (esp. NY) seem in the bag. I think that low black turnout will hurt Dems a LOT more in races like PA-Sen, GA-Gov, OH-Gov/Sen, NC-Sen, KY-Sen, TX-Gov, MO-Sen, FL-Gov/Sen, MD-Gov just to name a few. These are all states with close races and moderate to high black populations. If African-Americans decide to stay home because of their disappoint with Obama (or for any other reason), it could cost the Dems more than a couple of seats.