PPP's looks ahead to the 2012 Republican Presidential nomination fight continue to find good news for Mitt Romney: he leads in the big states of California and Michigan. Mike Huckabee has the edge in West Virginia.
In California Romney's ahead with 24% to 21% for Newt Gingrich, 18% for Sarah Palin, and 17% for Mike Huckabee. His numbers there are reminiscent of what we saw in our most recent national poll: he's able to lead despite running behind with the conservatives who dominate Republican primary electorates because of an overwhelming lead with moderates. Among conservatives Gingrich is the leader with 24% to 21% for Palin and 20% for Romney. But Romney gets 36% with moderates with none of the others exceeding even 14% and that fuels his overall lead.
In Michigan, where Romney has strong family ties, his large lead is no surprise. He's at 30% with the other three top contenders in more or less a three way tie- Palin gets 17%, Gingrich 16%, and Huckabee 14%. Romney leads with both moderates and conservatives there but the margin is only 8% with conservatives while it expands to 22% with moderates. One thing interesting in these numbers is that Palin actually leads Romney 26-21 with voters who consider themselves to be members of the 'Tea Party.' But in Michigan only 27% of Republicans do identify with that label and Romney leads her 34-14 with the ones who don't.
In West Virginia Huckabee at 27% and Palin at 24% show the highest degree of strength with Gingrich at 16% and Romney at 13% polling further back. Huckabee leads with both moderates and conservatives there.
Full results here
None of these retreads will be the GOP nominee. Try polling Chris Christie and/or Mike Pence next time. Or better yet, hold your fire until mid-2011.
ReplyDeleteNo polls this week?
ReplyDeleteThere is no clear front runner that is for sure. Are you guys going to have any new 2010 polls out this week? if so, what states?
ReplyDeleteGo Mitt! http://s920.photobucket.com/albums/ad43/mittfan12/?action=view¤t=mitt.jpg
ReplyDeleteWe'll have NC and Illinois numbers this week. Illinois starting tomorrow, NC maybe today or maybe tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteChris Christie won't run. Mike Pence, it may depend on his personal ambitions. I think he'd be content where he is. As for all these names being "re-treads", that's who wins nominations. Reagan, Bush I, Dole, McCain, going all the way back to Nixon. Bush II was sort of an anomaly, as was Ford. My money is on (and with) Romney.
ReplyDeleteGo Romney Go!
ReplyDeleteStephen, Have you not seen what the Tea Party voters have done to the GOP establishment this cycle? The GOP appears to be done nominating candidates just because it is their "turn." Romney in particular is toast given his support for Romneycare--which neutralizes one of the major general election campaign issues.
ReplyDeleteI think these polls are valuable to see a snapshot of the race, but they don't reflect how things will be in January of 2012 when the Iowa caucuses occur, or how the race will be shaped from there.
ReplyDeleteMoney, momentum, gaffes, personal politics in Iowa and New Hampshire, are very hard to predict. Maybe less so on the GOP side, recently, but even Huckabee was a surprise in 2008.
I continue to think, however, that you should add Thune and Pawlenty to your regular polls, since they are clearly running.
"I continue to think, however, that you should add Thune and Pawlenty to your regular polls, since they are clearly running."
ReplyDeleteWe could, but the few times we have polled them, even in politically in-tune NH, they only got about 1 or 2% each. That's why we have the "someone else" option now. I'm sure as the race shapes up early next year, we'll begin clarifying the field and honing it to the actually declared candidates.
Romney continues to win the polls because the GOP wants a serious, experienced candidate that they can rally behind to topple Obama. One they know can run an effective campaign, who speaks/debates well, is not divisive and has a clear, wide-encompassing "Free and Strong" message to take to voters against the Democrats. They continue to send a united message: We want Romney!
ReplyDeleteI don't know if this is feasible but I think it would be really interesting to ask for 1st AND 2nd choices. It would be interesting to see who primary voters switch to when their candidates drop out.
ReplyDeleteIt's much too early to be projecting who might be the top GOP Presidential nominee for 2012. At this point it's more about name recognition or lack thereof than it is popularity or favorable ratings. Of your list, I suspect that (possibly) only Mike Huckabee will be left as part of the last 3 or 4 viable candidates.
ReplyDeleteOther possibilities might be Tim Pawlenty, Mike Pence, Mitch Daniels and Rick Santorum. But only time will tell.
A recent Marist poll showed Pawlenty polling at 6% nationwide, which is the same as you recently polled Paul. So if you can poll Paul, you can poll Pawlenty.
ReplyDeleteWhere is Ron Paul? Like him or not, but the guy has a huge grassroots following. And I'm not debating his policies or ideas, I'm just saying the guy has a bigger following than a lot of folks you guys regularly poll. So I ask sincerely, please include Congressman Ron Paul of Texas in all future upcoming polls because the revolution isn't going anywhere and we'll certainly be pounding the pavement come next year.
ReplyDeleteNot Mitt, the only house Mitt should be in is the dog house.
ReplyDeleteRomney is not the man for the White House. Romney is the worst flip flopper around. He lost last time he will lose again.
ReplyDelete"Where is Ron Paul? Like him or not, but the guy has a huge grassroots following. And I'm not debating his policies or ideas, I'm just saying the guy has a bigger following than a lot of folks you guys regularly poll. So I ask sincerely, please include Congressman Ron Paul of Texas in all future upcoming polls because the revolution isn't going anywhere and we'll certainly be pounding the pavement come next year."
ReplyDeleteWe already do always poll Paul in the primary matchup as one of the five we name. Do you read our polls?
It is so clear even the blind can see it.. Romney will be the nominee. Go Mitt!
ReplyDeleteThe only hope to turn the economy around in Mitt Romney. He is so much more than a community organizer. Let's trust someone that knows something about how to run a company and run the nation.
ReplyDeleteMitt Romney is the most qualified candidate around. He was valedictorian of his college class. Got his MBA and law degree at Harvard graduating cum laud. Are you kidding me? His mind is like Bill Clinton's on steroids. The one difference is that he doesn't have any skeletons in his closet like Clinton. We need a president with a sterling character, Hollywood handsome(he even managed to have that old evil cow Joy Behar excited when he came onto The View). We need a turnaround artist to get this economy moving. He's had success at the Olympics, turned around companies like Dominos, Staples, etc. Sarah Palin may be nice, but let's get real, she can't hold a candle to Romney's intellectual firepower! It's time to put an adult in the White House! Just a thought db
ReplyDeleteRomney is by far the most qualified candidate out there. Sarah Palin may seem likeable, but she can't hold a candle to Romney's intellectual firepower. He was valedictorian of his graduating class at BYU, and graduated cumlaude at Harvard in law and an MBA in business. His brain is like Bill Clinton's on steroids. The big difference is that he has a sterling character, Hollywood handsome looks(he even had that old evil cow Joy Behar almost creaming in her pants when he came to the View). He turned around companies like Dominos, Staples, and the debt-ridden Salt Lake City Olympics. Are you kidding me? We are going to elect a moose hunter like Sarah Palin or a religious bigot like Huckabee to the White House with the economy coming down around our ears? It's time to get a grown up in the White House. Oh, by the way you stinking liberals who decry Romney's Mormon faith, I don't hear any of you screaming about your liberal icon Harry Reid and his Mormonism. What a bunch of bull! Just a thought db
ReplyDeleteRomney wasted $42 million plus last time of his own money, plus millions of other peoples money. What a waste. Romney spends on himself, typical elitist; one not needed in the White House.
ReplyDeleteRomney is by far the most qualified candidate out there. Sarah Palin may seem likeable, but she can't hold a candle to Romney's intellectual firepower. He was valedictorian of his graduating class at BYU, and graduated cumlaude at Harvard in law and an MBA in business. His brain is like Bill Clinton's on steroids. The big difference is that he has a sterling character, Hollywood handsome looks(he even had that old evil cow Joy Behar almost creaming in her pants when he came to the View). He turned around companies like Dominos, Staples, and the debt-ridden Salt Lake City Olympics. Are you kidding me? We are going to elect a moose hunter like Sarah Palin or a religious bigot like Huckabee to the White House with the economy coming down around our ears? It's time to get a grown up in the White House. Oh, by the way you stinking liberals who decry Romney's Mormon faith, I don't hear any of you screaming about your liberal icon Harry Reid and his Mormonism. What a bunch of bull! Just a thought db
ReplyDeleteRomney is by far the most qualified candidate out there. Sarah Palin may seem likeable, but she can't hold a candle to Romney's intellectual firepower. He was valedictorian of his graduating class at BYU, and graduated cumlaude at Harvard in law and an MBA in business. His brain is like Bill Clinton's on steroids. The big difference is that he has a sterling character, Hollywood handsome looks(he even had that old evil cow Joy Behar almost creaming in her pants when he came to the View). He turned around companies like Dominos, Staples, and the debt-ridden Salt Lake City Olympics. Are you kidding me? We are going to elect a moose hunter like Sarah Palin or a religious bigot like Huckabee to the White House with the economy coming down around our ears? It's time to get a grown up in the White House. Oh, by the way you stinking liberals who decry Romney's Mormon faith, I don't hear any of you screaming about your liberal icon Harry Reid and his Mormonism. What a bunch of bull! Just a thought db
ReplyDeleteRomney is by far the most qualified candidate out there. Sarah Palin may seem likeable, but she can't hold a candle to Romney's intellectual firepower. He was valedictorian of his graduating class at BYU, and graduated cumlaude at Harvard in law and an MBA in business. His brain is like Bill Clinton's on steroids. The big difference is that he has a sterling character, Hollywood handsome looks(he even had that old evil cow Joy Behar almost creaming in her pants when he came to the View). He turned around companies like Dominos, Staples, and the debt-ridden Salt Lake City Olympics. Are you kidding me? We are going to elect a moose hunter like Sarah Palin or a religious bigot like Huckabee to the White House with the economy coming down around our ears? It's time to get a grown up in the White House. Oh, by the way you stinking liberals who decry Romney's Mormon faith, I don't hear any of you screaming about your liberal icon Harry Reid and his Mormonism. What a bunch of bull! Just a thought db
ReplyDelete