Voters nationally are evenly divided on Barack Obama's job performance at 48% approving and 48% disapproving. Despite the mixed feelings toward him he leads Mitt Romney by 7 at 49-42, Newt Gingrich by 14 at 51-37, and Sarah Palin by 17 at 54-37 in hypothetical match ups. That's because even if voters are ambivalent about him, they don't like the Republican alternatives. Romney's favorability is 35/48, Palin's is 30/63, and Gingrich's is a remarkably bad 19/64.
All of these numbers are pretty much par for the course in our national Presidential polling this year except for one thing: Gingrich has completely tanked with Republican voters, providing real confirmation that his campaign rollout has been a total disaster. Only 38% of GOP voters have a favorable opinion of him and there are now more, at 45%, with an unfavorable one. I doubt anyone has ever been nominated for President who ever had negative favorability numbers within their own party less than a year out from the primary season.
That's the serious stuff and we did a national President poll two weeks ago and we'll do another one in two weeks. The real reason we did this extra one is to figure out how big of a political game changer the rapture would be.
First off- no one really believed the Rapture was going to happen last weekend, or at least they won't admit it. Just 2% of voters say they thought that was coming on Saturday to 98% who say they did not. It's really close to impossible to ask a question on a poll that only 2% of people say yes to. A national poll we did in September 2009 found that 10% of voters thought Barack Obama was the Anti-Christ, or at least said they thought so. That 2% number is remarkably low.
11% of voters though think the Rapture will occur in their lifetimes, even if it didn't happen last weekend. 66% think it will not happen and 23% are unsure. If the true believers who think the Rapture will happen in their lifetime are correct- and they're the ones who had the strongest enough faith to get taken up into heaven- then that's going to be worth a 2-5 point boost to Obama's reelection prospects. That's because while only 6% of independents and 10% of Democrats think the Rapture will happen during their lifetime, 16% of Republicans do. We always talk about demographic change helping Democrats with the rise of the Hispanic vote, but if the Rapture occurs it would be an even more immediate boost to Democratic electoral prospects.
Obama's lead over Romney is 7 points with all voters, but if you take out the ones who think the Rapture will occur in their lifetime his advantage increases to 9 points. That's because the Rapture voters support Romney by a 49-35 margin. Against Gingrich Obama's 14 point lead overall becomes a 17 point one if you take out take the 'Rapturers' because they support Gingrich 50-37. And Obama's 17 point lead over Palin becomes a 22 point spread without those voters because they support Palin 54-37.
Palin is the only person we tested on this poll who is actually popular with people who think the Rapture is going to happen. She has a 53/38 favorability with them, compared to 33/41 for Romney, 26/48 for Gingrich, and a 31/58 approval for Obama. Palin's problem is that her favorability with everyone who doesn't think the Rapture will happen is 27/66.
While few voters think the Rapture is coming, they're pretty darn confident that they're going up to Heaven if it does. 66% think they would be taken up to only 13% who think they'd be stuck down here and 21% who are unsure. It would really change the political landscape if everyone who thought they were going to be Raptured was correct. With the 34% of voters remaining here on earth Obama leads Romney 53-35, Gingrich 56-31, and Palin 61-26. You're talking a blowout of epic proportions next year with the third of voters that would remain.
Of course that's assuming Obama would still be here if the Rapture happened. We gave poll respondents an opportunity to play God and give us their opinions about whether Obama and Palin would be taken up if indeed the Rapture occurred. 44% of voters think he would be, 26% think he would not, and 30% are unsure. So if these voters are right there's a pretty good chance he wouldn't be around to enjoy the easy reelection the post-Rapture electorate would provide for him anyway. Obama can't even get any credit from Republicans for the after life. Just 23% of them think he would go up in the Rapture to 42% who think he would not. Voters are more divided about Palin's Rapture chances- 35% think she would go up, 32% think she would stay down, and 34% are not sure.
I know everyone was wondering last weekend what the electoral ramifications of the Rapture would be, so there, we told you. And we'll have Republican primary numbers delving into the same issues tomorrow.
Full results here
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11 comments:
Dude, like 11% of voters believed that rapture nonsense and you revolve a whole column around that? Why?
Always fun to see the polls with a sense of humor!
I like the polls with a sense of humor, but you don't need to inject that into an entire post of analysis as well...
The best part of your sense of humor polls is people who get angry at them.
Your poll is clearly flawed, since 67% of Americans don't even belong to sects of Christianity that accept the rapture. So either people who don't believe in the rapture believe they'll be raptured, or ?
And what year is it where you are?
"The Wall Street Journal ranked PPP as one of the top swing state pollsters in the country last year. (11-6-08 WSJ)"
We gave poll respondents an opportunity to play God and give us their opinions about whether Obama and Palin would be taken up if indeed the Rapture occurred. 44% of voters think he would be, 26% think he would not, and 30% are unsure. So if these voters are right there's a pretty good chance he wouldn't be around to enjoy the easy reelection the post-Rapture electorate would provide for him anyway.
This makes no sense. There's a pretty good chance he wouldn't be around if which voters are right? If the voters who think he'll be raptured are right, there's a 100% chance he won't be around, and if the voters who think he won't be raptured are right there's a 100% chance he will be around. If the "don't knows" are right, well, they can't be right, since they don't know.
I don't know why everyone is complaing about this poll, or the seriously-done analysis that went with it.
Everybody needs a hobby...
With numbers like 19/64 I don't see how Gingrich can continue his Presidential campaign in any kind of seriousness... There's just no way a person who is that disliked is ever going to be President.
PPP is the polling company for mindless morons and Kos clueless types. There is nothing honest in your methodology and your silly games are an insult to the intelligence of every American voter.
Ask if voters believe the world will end in 2012
First of all polls are like predicting the weather. My only local paper has a online poll, If you vote and try to vote again it says you already voted. OK so i got this feeling hours later to vote again, To my dismay and attempts of timing you can vote every 15 minutes. In which the time cycle of voting you could at your ip address vote 50 times every topic. Needless to say i was patronized, requested correction denied, asked to put an ad in the paper they hesitated until i said i would put it in the state paper. The Critical poll at the time was 50 votes for. after i spent my own money for an add the next day it jumped to 50 against a 100 vote swing in one day. And the main Editer blamed the city councillers for manipulating the poll. As for the rapture, when it does happen and it will, Christs church will be gone from this Earth and many will be looking for comfort just in the sake of survival and a leader will emerge, But woe to those who will follow this leaders miracles of helping you to survive but temperary. For after three and a half years you will have to make that choice too take the number of This leaders name and sell your soul or die for Christ to be with him. Now you can beleive that or call me crazy like most that know me maybe even my psyc. Doctor. But then i really dont care. But make no mistake i do have a spiritual partially developed mind of Christ that can see......
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