Wednesday, May 11, 2011

Kaine has slight lead on Allen

The Virginia Senate race continues to be about as evenly matched as it could possibly be with two well known and highly polarizing candidates duking it out. Tim Kaine leads George Allen 46-44 this time around. Here are some of the findings that show just how evenly matched the candidates are:

-10% of Democrats have a favorable opinion of Allen to 69% with an unfavorable opinion. 10% of Republicans have a favorable opinion of Kaine to 69% with an unfavorable one. We don't often see two candidates with identical favorability numbers across party lines.

-Likewise 7% of Democrats say they would vote for Allen if the election was today while 6% of Republicans say they would vote for Kaine. Neither is going to have much crossover support.

With both candidates having their parties largely united behind them Kaine has the slight overall lead because of a 45-40 advantage with independents. Voters are closely divided in their feelings about both candidates- 42% have a favorable opinion of Kaine to 41% with an unfavorable one, while 36% have a favorable opinion of Allen to 42% with an unfavorable one. Because both candidates are so well known and feelings about them are so evenly divided it's hard to imagine this race ever straying more than 3 or 4 points in one direction or the other barring some sort of huge shift in the national political climate.

George Allen's issues with the Tea Party seem likely to be pretty minimal but if by some chance Jamie Radtke does win the Republican nomination that would be good news for Democrats in line with what happened in Nevada and Delaware last year- Kaine leads Radtke by 16 points at 49-33. Allen would likewise benefit if he somehow ended up not having to face his presumptive opponent- he would start out with a 44-39 lead over Bobby Scott were Scott to knock off Kaine in the primary. And in what would be one of the more unexpected general election match ups in the history of the US Senate, Scott would lead Radtke 39-34. I think your chances of winning the lottery are probably better than the chances of that match up coming to fruition.

Full results here


Anonymous said...

Do you think the fact that Kaine's doing slightly worse in VA compared to Obama is more of a factor of Allen's relative strength (vs. the Republican presidential field), or Kaine's weakness as a candidate for some reason?

Dustin Ingalls said...

Probably a little of both, but mostly the former.

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