It doesn't look like Washington is going to be in the swing state column this coming election cycle- Barack Obama has solid approval numbers in the state and leads all of his potential Republican opponents by double digits.
52% of voters in the state approve of the job Obama is doing to 43% who disapprove. It's a rare place where there are more Republicans (11%) who approve of the job Obama's doing than there are Democrats (5%) who disapprove. That allows Obama to overcome the fact that he is on slightly negative ground with independents at 44% approving to 47% who think he's doing a poor job.
With a 9 point positive approval spread Obama would be favored to win Washington handily again on his own merits. What makes him even stronger is the incredible weakness of the Republican field in the state. Mitt Romney is the most 'popular' of the Republicans we tested who are still in the picture but only 34% of voters have a positive opinion of him to 47% with a negative one. Newt Gingrich breaks down at 26/59 and Sarah Palin is at 29/65.
Because all of the potential GOP nominees are so unpopular Obama leads them by wider margins than his own approval spread. He's up 11 points on Romney at 51-40, 18 on Gingrich at 54-36, and 23 on Palin at 57-34. Republicans wouldn't have been any better off with Mike Huckabee who trailed 53-39 on this poll and Donald Trump who trailed 58-31, both of whom announced they wouldn't run after the survey had already been conducted.
Republicans aren't likely to actually win Washington next year but Romney's numbers against Obama can be considered somewhat encouraging. John McCain lost the state by 17 points in 2008 so for Romney to be outrunning that performance by 6 points just a couple weeks after the death of Osama bin Laden bodes well for his potential to make it competitive nationally.
Full results here
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8 comments:
Will you release another poll for NY-26 ?
I thought you were polling Ron Paul against Obama this time, given that Trump and Huckabee aren't even in the race any more. What happened?
Sure, if you don't poll Obama against Ron Paul, he is very safe.
This poll has no credibilty ,since the person polling to beat obama is Ron Paul!! Ron Paul vs obama republicans and obama! bottom line if we do not get Ron Paul we get obama!!
"I thought you were polling Ron Paul against Obama this time, given that Trump and Huckabee aren't even in the race any more. What happened?"
Huh? When did we ever say that?
"Sure, if you don't poll Obama against Ron Paul, he is very safe."
Paul was down 10 nationally last time we polled him against Obama, and it'd be even more in WA.
Ron Paul has never had a strong base of support in Washington barely registering in polls where he is included.
Obama looks safe in this poll and is probably safer still. Looking at the polls internals, they skew a little older than the usual demographic breakdown in a presidential race. That is probably because there is no cell only component and Washington is a 25-30% cell only state.
Kenny, the only reason Obama is doing so well is because MOST of the GOP candidates are putrid at best, with Code Pink's best friend Ron Paul being the worst
Looks like there's no contest!!
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