Tuesday, May 24, 2011

Time for another vote...

Time for another poll vote, the options for where we go this weekend are:

-Iowa. Definitely worth a new GOP poll there in the brand new post-Huckabee and Trump world. Pretty sure Romney will be ahead but who else is gaining ground there?

-Massachusetts. Been nearly 6 months since we did a public poll in the state...things are getting worse for Republicans nationally, is the same true for Scott Brown?

-Minnesota. Amy Klobuchar has an opponent now so worth looking to see if she's as solid as she was at the end of last year...also curious whether Republicans in the state are more supportive of Bachmann or Pawlenty, although I think I know the answer...and whether Midwestern voters only dislike their new Republican Governors or if that extends to Democrats like Mark Dayton too.

-Montana. Closely contested Senate seat, open seats for House and Governor, one of few states where Obama lost in 2008 but could potentially win in 2012...there's a lot to work with in Montana.

-New Mexico. This state is becoming like Connecticut earlier in the year- we include it in every one of our votes and it never wins. No harm in keeping it in there though, especially now that we know there will be competitive primary contests for both parties in the effort to replace Jeff Bingaman.

-South Carolina. The only one of the major early Republican contests we haven't polled on in the last couple months...with Huckabee out and Gingrich imploding does Romney now lead in all four of the Iowa/New Hampshire/Nevada/South Carolina early contests? Certainly interested to find out.

Voting's open until roughly 5 PM Wednesday and as always don't stuff the ballot box.


BOSMAN said...

Yeh, I'd like Iowa FIRST, SC Second.

Maybe we could see what kind of BOUNCE TPAW got.

I expect he's still fluttering around in the single digits.

Huntsman is A JOKE GOING No Where SLOW!

But he's got TPAW's back.

Is there anyone left for the "Anyone But Romney Crowd" to pin there hopes on?

What about that guy from NY that likes to DRESS-UP?

Anonymous said...

It would be interesting to see if Pawlenty would do well in Minnesota, and to see how the state is looking at the 2012 marriage amendment.

Frankly, the only state's I see flipping are Colorado, Indiana, and possibly Florida. The other "swing states" are still very strong for Obama and it will take a Minnnesota or something out of left field (or Ohio) to win it for the GOP candidate.

Anonymous said...

Wasn't Iowa just polled a month ago without Huckabee and Trump? I believe the results were: Mitt Romney 25%, Newt Gingrich 15%, Sarah Palin 15%, Ron Paul 15%, Michele Bachmann 10%, Tim Pawlenty 9%, someone else/undecided 11%. Do you really think they'll be very different now.

Anonymous said...

How many states will you poll ?

Only 1 or 2 ?

Anonymous said...

How about finally getting around to Oregon? D:

We may have a ballot measure to repeal the ban on gay marriage in 2012 and I'm curious to see the results considering the recent poll showing Washington state at 46/44/10 legal/illegal/dunno.

Statistikhengst said...

Minnesota (to see what the effect of Wisconsin and the union busting thing is doing) and most definitely:

New Mexico. With such a romping landslide in 2008, I do not see Obama losing this state under any circumstances. Just make sure that the hispanic proportion is correct and not understated (see: NV, CO 2010).

Anonymous said...

You guys should consider polling Indiana one of these days. With NC and VA doing okay for Obama, it'd be interesting to see what Indiana looks like for him (especially with no chance of Daniels). The Senate Campaign in IN could also get interesting with the Medicare vote coming up as well as Lugar's likely primary challenge.

The Interesting Times said...

Honestly, I would consider switching out Huntsman for Santorum.

Santorum is very likely to run, and he could possibly energize the Christian Right. Huntsman is still a maybe yes, maybe no--and on top of that, he's got practically zero enthusiasm. His campaign is probably the biggest yawn of the election season so far.

NRH said...

Anon - they've explained many times that they can't do Indiana unless somebody wants to pony up the cash to pay for having live callers. Indiana bars robocall polling, which is how PPP polls.

Anonymous said...

I'd like to see Texas polled!

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