Tuesday, May 3, 2011

Voting Time

We're up for our monthly national poll this weekend and for a single state poll. Good timing for the national poll, it will be good to see not just any movement in Obama's approval numbers this weekend but also if anything changes in his head to head numbers against all of the leading Republicans.

If you have question suggestions for the national poll please put them here and also let us know who you think we should include as the 'bonus Republican' to be tested against Obama in addition to the usual staples of Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin, Newt Gingrich, and Donald Trump.

Here are the choices for this week's state poll:

-Kentucky. The primary election there is coming up in a couple weeks and it doesn't seem terribly competitive but it would be worth taking a look at that and I'm also interested to see approval numbers for Rand Paul, which we haven't done at all since he took office.

-Montana. Competitive Senate race, open races for House and Governor, plenty to work with there.

-New Mexico. We did a poll on this race in February but it didn't include Hector Balderas and John Sanchez so would be interested to see how they do and of course it's a quasi swing state for President- if Obama's not doing well here he's in a bit of a mess.

-South Carolina. It's been more than three months now since we've looked at how the Republican Presidential race is going here and the Palmetto State's interesting cast of politicians are always worth checking in on.

-Virginia. I'd like to look at one of the really major swing states the weekend post-Osama death and this is the one we've gone the longest without polling. Also curious whether Tim Kaine's official entry into the race has made a difference in one direction or another polling wise.

Voting's open until 4 PM tomorrow, don't cheat or we'll remove the state you're cheating on behalf of from consideration.


Anonymous said...

I think you might need to start regularly polling Huntsman. He could end up being a very competitive candidate. He's got a lot of the flawed candidates' better qualities, and a lot less baggage. This could make him a sleeper pick.

Argo Journal said...

Please include Rudy Giuliani as the 'bonus Republican' to be tested against President Obama in your monthly national poll.

Jeff said...

For the bonus Republican Mitch Daniels may be worth a look. It'll be cool to see if the hype he's getting is translating into real support or not.

Anonymous said...

I'd love to see a gay marriage question in the national poll.

But please, please, PLEASE if you ask it can you NOT have the "civil union but not marriage" option? It skewers the results.

I just think it would be interesting to see how a PPP question about same-sex marriage compares to the 4 other credible national polls that have recently shown majority support for same-sex marriage.

But none of those had the "civil unions but not marriage" option.

BOSMAN said...

I agree with Aron, add Giuliani in the mix.

Anon #1,

Less baggage is baggage in relative to what?

Huntsmann seeking the Democratic nomination, Maybe I wouls agree. Less baggage in that instance ONLY!

Statistikhengst said...

Do New Mexico and Virginia.

And in the next weeks, a sweep poll of the midwest: OH, IN, IL, WI, MN, IA

Republican Candidates:

Trump (I am really sure he is crazy enough to want to run)

forget Huntsman, he is the maybe wanna be darkhorse - ain't gonna happen. Forget it.

Forget Palin, forget Bachmann. Ain't gonna happen.

wt said...

Mitch Daniels is the flavor of the week, but no one really knows who he is just yet.

Other options -- Pawlenty, McCain, Boehner, Rick Perry, and Chuck Norris.

Wesley said...

Might be interesting to poll on where people think the credit for Osama's death should go: Bush, Obama, intelligence agencies, etc.

Bonus Republican: Mitch Daniels. He's being pushed pretty heavily by the mainstream while not being all that mainstream himself.

Anonymous said...

I think you should poll Ron Paul against Obama. This will be right after the debate.

The Interesting Times said...

I'd like to see you do a poll where Obama's approval rating is broken down into Strongly Approve, Somewhat Approve, Somewhat Disapprove, Strongly Disapprove--the way Rasmussen does theirs.

The reason is to see if this methodological difference is translating into an actual difference in approval ratings as measured by the different polls.

(Anyone who has taken a serious, scientific look at the data doesn't buy the "Rasmussen has a right-wing bias" theory.)

Anonymous said...

Ask: Does Obama's handling of bin Laden make you more likely, less likely, or equally as likely to vote for Obama?

Also, I would like to see Washington in the choices of states to vote on sometime soon. It hasn't been polled since the end of July and it has interesting races across the board, especially Governor. I believe it was a choice a couple of months ago and only lost by a couple percent.

NRH said...

Maybe Colin Powell as the 'bonus Republican?' He's not running and he's too old, but he used to be considered a moderate, served under Bush to satisfy the far right, and is the only Republican I know of with any national name recognition who might stand a chance of peeling off minority votes. You'd need to put in a third option there, though, to account for the teabaggers who'd find some excuse to vote against both black men.

Anonymous said...

The bonus Republican should be Tim Pawlenty.

Pawlenty has a fairly decent shot at the nomination in a weak field of candidates. I think you should add him to the list of regularly polled GOP candidates.

Andrew Carden said...

Rudy Giuliani as the bonus Republican, please.

Anonymous said...

JON HUNTSMAN JR, of course!

Check him out on Intrade...
10-15 points today!

NRH said...

Anyone who's taken a serious look at the data? Like, say, respected statistician Nate Silver, who repeatedly found that there was in fact specific evidence of right-wing bias in Rasmussen polling, what with the whole 'regularly predicts Republican overperformance' and 'magically comes into line with other polls in the last couple of weeks after spending all year pushing Republican candidates' things?

Mark Spencer said...

Mitch Daniels for me!

Anonymous said...

Washington- Elway and SUSA polls show things might be closer than expected- what about PPP??

Anonymous said...

Siena has NY-26 as only a 5-point margin for the Republican. Are you planning on polling there before the election?

Anonymous said...

If you do Virginia, please do a generic legislative ballot question. There are elections to the state legislature next year, and it would be nice to see which party starts with a statewide lead. If Democrats are doing well there, it bodes well for them in this key 2012 swing state.

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