Response to Civitas

Over at Red Clay Citizen, Civitas takes some shots at our polling methodology and some recent polls we have conducted for clients. I’m not going to get into a pissing match calling their polls biased and our polls unbiased. But I will respond to a few specific points they made.

I left in the "press 1 on your keypad" part of the quote to let readers know that Public Policy Polling has no way to verify if their respondents are 5-year-olds, 15-year-olds, much less who they claim they are. But I digress...

Apparently, our respondents have grown from 12-year-olds to now 15-year-olds. I’ve discussed that point here and here. This seems to be the standard complaint from people who don’t like our results. It’s a form of “attack the messenger, instead of the message.”

The most egregious bias in this is that it frames the question in such a way as to suggest any county has EVER ONCE suggested that transfer taxes would be an alternative to property taxes.

That, in fact, is the case in many fast growing counties in North Carolina. In Wake County, for example, school construction needs in the next decade are estimated to cost at least $4.5 billion. That’s just for school construction, which has nothing to do with new teachers and classroom needs, nor does it account for roads, parks or any other infrastructure costs.

Wake County cannot pay for those billions of dollars without raising revenue. Right now, the only option is property taxes, because the state government doesn’t give the county the authority to use the transfer tax, sales tax, or impact fees.

Revenues are going to have to be raised, if not transfer taxes (which is the only other option on the table right now), then it will have to be property tax increases.

The other misleading aspect of this is that it repeats "one-time". But the fact is: you will pay the tax every time you sell your home.

How many times can you sell your home? Only once. Then it’s not yours anymore. You pay property taxes every year.

Here's a comparable question from June's Civitas Poll:

"A transfer tax is a tax assessed against the seller of a home or property at the time of the sale. Do you support a 1 percent transfer tax on homeowners selling their home to help local government pay for the costs associated with growth?"

That’s not the issue before the legislature. The legislature is debating whether to give counties the authority to have a referendum in order to establish a transfer tax. Voters in each county that decides it wants to have a referendum are free to vote no. Right now the legislature won’t let citizens even put it to a vote.

If Wake County decides to have a transfer tax referendum, I'm sure PPP will poll on it. Our polls on elections and referenda have been extremely accurate and fair.

Could Dole be ready to break from Bush on Iraq?

Republicans in the US Senate continue to block attempts to establish any sort of timetable for withdrawal from the War in Iraq. North Carolina’s Senators Elizabeth Dole and Richard Burr were among the obstructionist Republicans. According to the latest Civitas Poll, they don’t have the support of North Carolina voters behind them. From the Civitas Poll:

Do you support or oppose Congress passing legislation that would set a timetable for the withdrawal of American troops from Iraq within the next year and also provide full funding for the troops presently fighting in Iraq?

Support 57%
Oppose 33%
Not sure 10%

Former Raleigh Mayor and current Dole campaign consultant, Tom Fetzer spoke at the Civitas luncheon on Wednesday. He stated that two-thirds of the Republican senators up for reelection in 2008 have expressed some break with the President over his Iraq strategy. Fetzer went on to say that he would expect even more Republican defections by the end of the quarter.

I assume Elizabeth Dole is not one of the senators who have broken from the President on Iraq already. Is Fetzer forecasting something to come from Senator Dole?

More on the Civitas Poll

In light of responses to the previous post concerning Civitas, here are some more of the results from their poll, which had been promised anyway.

The question about donating the money given to people by Jim Black to charity was not worth mentioning because its such an over simplification of the issue. Just because Jim Black gave money to other candidates doesn't mean that money is tainted as well. And of course when you mention donating money to charity in a question there will be a lot of support. I really don't think donating money to charity that was given illegally reflects well on people's intentions. I also don't care either way if the money is donated to charity or not, its not a bad idea in principle. The problem is that the real issue isn't what to do with the money, but dealing with ways to stop corruption in the first place, regardless of party. Giving the money to charity isn't going to solve anything, therefore, its not a useful issue. One more thing. Only 4% of people in this poll listed "Government corruption" as "the most important issue facing...North Carolina." That's another reason I didn't mention that result in my previous post that hit on the major parts of the poll.

Another question that asked about global warming as a state or national/international issue was very poorly worded in my view. Here's what the question asked:

Do you think state government should enact new laws to control global warming in North Carolina or is it a problem that can best be solved through national and international action?

I think that is it a problem that can be solved through national and international action but I also believe that NC should enact some laws to help control it. I'm sure a lot more people feel that way as well and there was no way for people to voice that opinion. Had the question asked if NC should enact laws or if it should not do anything and leave the issue for national/international action, the results might have been different.

A question was asked about "a state program that would provide clean needles to illegal drug users using taxpayer dollars." I don't see why this question was included in the survey because its not really an issue. Provisions like this are added to bills in the legislature by the hundreds, its a fact of how of government works. The only reason the question is in the poll is to stir up the conservative base, while the majority of voters are ambivalent about it.

There were also several questions concerning health care costs. One asked about mandates that require coverage for counseling and alcohol and drug abuse that raise insurance premiums. People overwhelming support tailoring their own needs in order to reduce health care costs, but what the question did not mention is that that would result in extremely high rates for people who did need insurance to cover their needs. The same concept comes up in the question about a high risk insurance pool for the chronically ill. Though it would reduce costs for most people, the chronically ill would have to pay an inordinate amount for health care. The point is that our system works on the fact that everyone sacrifices in order to help those who need it, which some people don't agree with in principle. However, the questions didn't address the lower cost of health coverage at the expense of others, which is something to consider.

One last point. Jack Hawke made a big deal about how Congress' approval is lower than President Bush's but people still say they would vote for a Democrat is the the congressional election were held today. He seemed baffled by why that was, even though its painfully obvious. People aren't mad at the Democrats in the leadership, they're mad because the Republicans won't allow the Congress to vote to get out of Iraq. That is really the only issue that people are giving any credence to right now. An overwhelming majority of the state and the nation wants us to leave Iraq, and all people see is the effort to which Republicans in Congress are going to stop that from happening, and they hate them for it. That is why Congress has such low approval ratings. The fact that Republicans at Civitas are unwilling to see that is alarming and shows just how blinded by ideology they are. They are too busy hating everything Democrats do to see what's really going on: people are abandoning their party because they hate the War, plain and simple. Until the War ends in any real fashion, any other issue will take a back seat.

North Carolinians want to vote on proposed transfer tax

Complete results here.

Press release:

According to a recent survey conducted by Public Policy Polling (PPP),North Carolinians want the opportunity to vote on whether or not their county can use a transfer tax by a margin of nearly 10 to 1. The survey was commissioned by the Partnership for North Carolina’s Future.

Eighty four percent of those surveyed agreed that “voters in each North Carolina county should be able to vote on whether or not their counties can use a one time transfer tax to pay for communities needs…”, while only 8% were opposed.

“People want the same right to vote on the transfer tax that other counties have and they would be more likely (62-14) to vote for legislators who support giving them that vote,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.

When given a choice of how to pay for schools, safe, clean water, better roads, open spaces and housing for seniors, those surveyed preferred a 1% transfer tax to a 10% property tax increase 75% to 25%. On average a 1% transfer tax would be equal to about a 10% property tax increase in most counties.

Survey respondents also favored (82%-18%) an impact fee charged to developers for each newly built home or business and a large majority (62%-38%) supported a tax on realtor commissions to help pay for community needs.

Additionally, 79% felt that realtors were being hypocritical by saying that a 1% transfer tax would prevent people from buying a home when those realtors charge a 6% commission.

In the last election the realtors and homebuilders made more than $900,000 in contributions to legislative candidates. According to the survey, 70% of likely North Carolina voters said they would be less likely to vote for legislators who received large contributions from realtors and homebuilders.

PPP surveyed 517 likely North Carolina voters on July 17. The survey has a margin of error of ± 4.3%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

Complete results are attached and include crosstabs breaking down the results by gender, party affiliation, race, and age. If you have questions about this release or would like an interview regarding this release, please contact Dean Debnam at (888) 621-6988 or 919- 880-4888.

New Civitas Poll

The Civitas Institute issued a new poll today on the Presidential and statewide primaries as well as some health care issues. Here are some of the interesting results:

Bush Approval
17% Strongly Approve
20% Somewhat Approve
14% Somewhat Disapprove
46% Strongly Disapprove

NC Legislature Approval
45% Approve
38% Disapprove

Congress passing legislation setting a timetable for withdrawl from Iraq
57% Support
33% Oppose

Is global warming a threat to NC?
63% Yes
29% No

Most of the questions concerning health care are not worth mentioning because they're so ridculous. There will be more to come on this poll, including more commentary. Stay tuned.

Scooter Libby Poll Results

We released a new poll today, the complete results of which can be found here, dealing with the Scooter Libby fiasco. Here are some highlights.

Not surprispingly, most people think that the punishment handed to Libby was fair. We found that 60% of people thought his punishment was correct OR too lenient and only 35% think it was too harsh. Unfortunately, 45% of people think Bush should have pardoned or commuted him, and 50% think he should have just stayed out of it. Even in a conservative state like NC, I thought more than 50% of people would be unhappy with Bush's handling. It seems like his base it still supportive for whatever reason.

We also asked people if they think Bush had some kind of roll in the leak scandal. 48% think he had nothing to do with it, but 28% think he did something illegal and 17% think he did something unethical. Obviously, if people held a better view of Bush and his ratings were higher, more than half the state would support him on this. It just irks me that the Republicans continue to support him without a valid reason. However, that many people thinking he did something illegal is nothing to be happy about, and it does show the split between those who still love W and those who hate him.

When it comes to Cheney, people seem to have a lower opinion. We found that 52% of people think he was involved in a cover-up to prevent prosecutors from finding out who really leaked the name; 37% think he wasn't involved in a cover-up. Also of note, 50% of the state, thinks this scandal indicates low ethics in the Bush Administration, which might be the most important finding of the poll. Though that opinion was largely confined to Democrats, a growing number of Republicans are beginning to distrust this administration and its disregard for law, oversight, and ethics. Maybe that will help the Democrats make some gains in NC in 2008.

Take a look at the entire survey and report and let us know what you think.

Room to grow

Crosstab analysis of our latest poll should give Democrats even more reason to be optimistic about their chances against Elizabeth Dole. The Democratic candidate will have much more room to grow his/her support.

When Dole was matched-up against Grier Martin, 22% of Democrats were undecided but only 13% of Republicans. Maybe more importantly a third of unaffiliateds were undecided. Against Kay Hagan 35% of Democrats and 45% of unaffiliateds were undecided, compared to 18% of Republicans.

The poll crosstabs also indicate African-Americans were not fully behind the Democrats either. In the Martin match-up 23% of blacks were undecided and 31% were for Dole. For Hagan it was 38% undecided and 29% for Dole. I see no reason why the African-American community would not support the Democrat in 2008 with their usual 80-90% support. Some of the support for Dole can probably be explained by name recognition and celebrity status.

If you add up the support a Democrat should expect from Democrats, African-Americans and some unaffiliateds, then this race looks even closer to a tie.

NCCVE: Bush and Clinton Out-Poll … Bush and Clinton?

The NC Center for Voter Education released more of their statewide poll today. Earlier results are mentioned here. Today's results focus on the popularity of Presidents George H.W. Bush, Bill Clinton and George W. Bush, and also, Hillary Clinton. It appears that North Carolinians like the former presidents better than the current President and presidential candidate.

President GWB

43% Favorable
55% Unfavorable

Senator Clinton

46% Favorable
49% Unfavorable

The survey was conducted June 12-13 among 600 registered voters by American Viewpoint.

Dole Attacks!

Apparently PPP has inspired the wrath of Elizabeth Dole's campaign. Mark Stephens, Elizabeth Dole’s campaign honcho and former ED of the NRSC, took issue with our most recent poll. He attacked our methodology as unsound, spouting the usual complaints about 12-year-olds answering our surveys – yada, yada, yada. We’ve heard that one before.

They got a WRAL news story amended to include a line about how “A polling firm that works with Dole questioned Public Policy's methodology.” Read the comments for more of Stephens’ complaints and my response. The fact is that there is no evidence of any the problems he mentioned. And his complaint ignores the imperfections of traditional telephone surveys.

We’ve have been running these match-up polls for months and have never seen this reaction out of the Dole camp. Bottom line: Something got them spooked.

Update: Even John Hood likes our methodology! (Scroll down)

Home state blues?

Before everyone goes and declares the John Edwards presidential campaign dead because he has fallen behind in his home state, take a look at the American Research Group poll conducted over the weekend in Illinois. In Barack Obama's home state, he leads Hillary Clinton by only 4 percent, 37-33.

Clinton and Obama are Democratic front-runners 1 and 1a. Their national lead is going to trickle down to the states. I think the North Carolina numbers are more of an indication of the strength of Clinton and Obama than of any home state weakness for Edwards.

For Edwards backers, the only polling that really matters is in Iowa, New Hampshire, and maybe South Carolina. If he wins Iowa, I predict he would bolt ahead in North Carolina polls too.