Friday, July 13, 2007

Room to grow

Crosstab analysis of our latest poll should give Democrats even more reason to be optimistic about their chances against Elizabeth Dole. The Democratic candidate will have much more room to grow his/her support.

When Dole was matched-up against Grier Martin, 22% of Democrats were undecided but only 13% of Republicans. Maybe more importantly a third of unaffiliateds were undecided. Against Kay Hagan 35% of Democrats and 45% of unaffiliateds were undecided, compared to 18% of Republicans.

The poll crosstabs also indicate African-Americans were not fully behind the Democrats either. In the Martin match-up 23% of blacks were undecided and 31% were for Dole. For Hagan it was 38% undecided and 29% for Dole. I see no reason why the African-American community would not support the Democrat in 2008 with their usual 80-90% support. Some of the support for Dole can probably be explained by name recognition and celebrity status.

If you add up the support a Democrat should expect from Democrats, African-Americans and some unaffiliateds, then this race looks even closer to a tie.

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