Wednesday, July 11, 2007

Home state blues?

Before everyone goes and declares the John Edwards presidential campaign dead because he has fallen behind in his home state, take a look at the American Research Group poll conducted over the weekend in Illinois. In Barack Obama's home state, he leads Hillary Clinton by only 4 percent, 37-33.

Clinton and Obama are Democratic front-runners 1 and 1a. Their national lead is going to trickle down to the states. I think the North Carolina numbers are more of an indication of the strength of Clinton and Obama than of any home state weakness for Edwards.

For Edwards backers, the only polling that really matters is in Iowa, New Hampshire, and maybe South Carolina. If he wins Iowa, I predict he would bolt ahead in North Carolina polls too.

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