Democratic Governor
Democratic President
Republican President
Tuesday, October 9, 2007
Monday, October 8, 2007
NC Primary Tracking
Results from our October tracking polls are out. Click here for complete results.
Democratic President
Clinton 32%
Edwards 31%
Obama 20%
This is Clinton's second consecutive month in the lead over John Edwards. Obama was doing better in the spring, but has fallen into a clear third.
Republican President
Thompson 31%
Giuliani 20%
McCain 11%
Romney 11%
Giuliani closed the gap between him and Fred Thompson by 7% in the last month. Maybe North Carolina voters are picking up on the dud that is Fred Thompson’s campaign. McCain also went up 4 points, following a national trend.
Democratic Governor
Perdue 39%
Moore 29%
Perdue formally announced her candidacy on October 1 and we polled two days later. 39% is the highest she has been in our poll, but she has lead by 10 percent before. Not clear if this is a bump or a trend.
Republican Governor
Graham 19%
Smith 17%
Orr 11%
Is this the start of something? Fred Smith clearly gained a few points this month. This is the first time we have seen ANY movement in this race. There are still way too many undecided voters to determine anything.
Democratic Lt. Governor
Dalton 12%
Smathers 8%
Dellinger 7%
Besse 6%
Democratic Superintendent
Atkinson 32%
Davis 15%
Democratic Treasurer
Cowell 14%
Young 14%
Weisel 5%
Republican Treasurer
Daughtridge 20%
Folwell 13%
Democratic President
Clinton 32%
Edwards 31%
Obama 20%
This is Clinton's second consecutive month in the lead over John Edwards. Obama was doing better in the spring, but has fallen into a clear third.
Republican President
Thompson 31%
Giuliani 20%
McCain 11%
Romney 11%
Giuliani closed the gap between him and Fred Thompson by 7% in the last month. Maybe North Carolina voters are picking up on the dud that is Fred Thompson’s campaign. McCain also went up 4 points, following a national trend.
Democratic Governor
Perdue 39%
Moore 29%
Perdue formally announced her candidacy on October 1 and we polled two days later. 39% is the highest she has been in our poll, but she has lead by 10 percent before. Not clear if this is a bump or a trend.
Republican Governor
Graham 19%
Smith 17%
Orr 11%
Is this the start of something? Fred Smith clearly gained a few points this month. This is the first time we have seen ANY movement in this race. There are still way too many undecided voters to determine anything.
Democratic Lt. Governor
Dalton 12%
Smathers 8%
Dellinger 7%
Besse 6%
Democratic Superintendent
Atkinson 32%
Davis 15%
Democratic Treasurer
Cowell 14%
Young 14%
Weisel 5%
Republican Treasurer
Daughtridge 20%
Folwell 13%
Friday, October 5, 2007
Charges of push polling in Durham
Sorry, I'm about a week late on this story. Durham Mayor Bill Bell has accused challenger Thomas Stith of conducting a push poll, linking Bell to a conflict of interest. See here and here. The poll was conducted by TelOpinion Research, which also conducts polling for the Civitas Institute. Stith was formerly the Vice President of the Civitas Institute.
I think this is a good time to remind people of the definition of a push poll. A push poll, is not a poll at all, but a tactic to spread dirt about a candidate under the guise of a poll. Instead of trying to poll a sample of voters, a push poll should try to go to as many people as possible.
If everybody in Durham got "polled" then I would agree that this was a push poll. But I doubt that's the case. It is more likely a poll that includes some leading questions designed to figure out what negative messages decrease Bell's support the most. In other words, what dirt sticks. This is a common campaign tactic.
Now, whether or not Stith's "dirt" on Bell is truthful is another matter.
I think this is a good time to remind people of the definition of a push poll. A push poll, is not a poll at all, but a tactic to spread dirt about a candidate under the guise of a poll. Instead of trying to poll a sample of voters, a push poll should try to go to as many people as possible.
If everybody in Durham got "polled" then I would agree that this was a push poll. But I doubt that's the case. It is more likely a poll that includes some leading questions designed to figure out what negative messages decrease Bell's support the most. In other words, what dirt sticks. This is a common campaign tactic.
Now, whether or not Stith's "dirt" on Bell is truthful is another matter.
Polls! Raleigh City Council
Results here. Survey of 653 likely Raleigh voters, 165 in District A and 117 in District B. The margins of error on the district surveys can go up to +/-8%.
At-Large First Choice, Second Choice
Stephenson 33, 16%
Baldwin 24, 16%
Anderson 18, 13%
Williams 8, 2%
Tart 2,9%
Best 1,4%
District A
McFarlane 48%
Craven 46%
District B
Taliaferro 40%
Koopman 40%
Menendez 8%
At-Large First Choice, Second Choice
Stephenson 33, 16%
Baldwin 24, 16%
Anderson 18, 13%
Williams 8, 2%
Tart 2,9%
Best 1,4%
District A
McFarlane 48%
Craven 46%
District B
Taliaferro 40%
Koopman 40%
Menendez 8%
Polls! Cary Town Council
Results here. Survey of 156 likely Cary voters. Note that the margin of error is up to +/-8%.
Mayor
Weinbrecht 59%
McAlister 33%
At-large
Portman 59%
Byrd 24%
Mayor
Weinbrecht 59%
McAlister 33%
At-large
Portman 59%
Byrd 24%
Polls! Wake County School Board
PPP Survey: 1147 likely voters in Wake County, 159 in District 3 and 178 in District 6. Results here.
District 3
LaVance 28%
Hill 20%
Wilson 13%
District 6
Clark 49%
O'Brien 16%
Armogida 10%
Zal 3%
The following questions were asked countywide: How would you rate the current school board?
Excellent 9%
Good 29%
Fair 26%
Poor 30%
Would you support a .4% transfer tax increase for school construction?
Support 44%
Oppose 48%
Should Wake County school be allowed to provide voluntary sex education?
Favor 64%
Oppose 30%
District 3
LaVance 28%
Hill 20%
Wilson 13%
District 6
Clark 49%
O'Brien 16%
Armogida 10%
Zal 3%
The following questions were asked countywide: How would you rate the current school board?
Excellent 9%
Good 29%
Fair 26%
Poor 30%
Would you support a .4% transfer tax increase for school construction?
Support 44%
Oppose 48%
Should Wake County school be allowed to provide voluntary sex education?
Favor 64%
Oppose 30%
Wednesday, October 3, 2007
McHenry Polling Primary Possibilities
Thanks to Anglico at BlueNC for finding this.
Congressman Patrick McHenry released a poll yesterday that found he had an 80% approval rating among Republicans in his district. It also showed him defeating two other prominent Republicans if they were matched in a primary campaign.
The two Republicans named in the poll were confused and angry over why they were included in the poll. I'm not sure either. Go read the article, it's quite interesting and bizarre.
Congressman Patrick McHenry released a poll yesterday that found he had an 80% approval rating among Republicans in his district. It also showed him defeating two other prominent Republicans if they were matched in a primary campaign.
The two Republicans named in the poll were confused and angry over why they were included in the poll. I'm not sure either. Go read the article, it's quite interesting and bizarre.
Tuesday, October 2, 2007
Elon Poll: Transfer Tax, Smoking Ban, Immigration, Stem Cell Research
More data from the Elon Poll is out. News release here and data here.
Mark Binker just about nails all the thoughts I had on this data, especially his thoughts on polling taxes. So just go read his thoughts instead of me ripping them off.
Mark Binker just about nails all the thoughts I had on this data, especially his thoughts on polling taxes. So just go read his thoughts instead of me ripping them off.
Republican disconnect on the war?
Mark Binker takes a closer look at the Elon Poll questions on the Iraq War, specifically support for timetables for withdrawal. The Elon Poll showed strong support for timetables (more than 60%).
Binker goes on to look at the party affiliation breakdowns, showing some drop-off in support between Democrats and Republicans. Yet still, 44% of Republicans support a timetable by 2008, and 56% support a timetable by 2009.
The Elon Poll finds much stronger support for timetables than a PPP survey taken last month. Our poll found only 49% of North Carolinians favored Congress setting a timetable for withdrawal within the next year. Why the difference?
The other option we posed to respondents, besides a timetable, was to follow the President until the job is finished. When asked that way, Republicans stayed with the President and did not support a timetable. In our question, only 24% of Republicans supported timetables and 70% wanted Congress to support the President.
What does that mean? I think there is a slight disconnect between Republicans’ policy preferences and their allegiance to the President. While their support for continuing the war might be weak, they still want to follow President Bush’s lead.
Binker goes on to look at the party affiliation breakdowns, showing some drop-off in support between Democrats and Republicans. Yet still, 44% of Republicans support a timetable by 2008, and 56% support a timetable by 2009.
The Elon Poll finds much stronger support for timetables than a PPP survey taken last month. Our poll found only 49% of North Carolinians favored Congress setting a timetable for withdrawal within the next year. Why the difference?
The other option we posed to respondents, besides a timetable, was to follow the President until the job is finished. When asked that way, Republicans stayed with the President and did not support a timetable. In our question, only 24% of Republicans supported timetables and 70% wanted Congress to support the President.
What does that mean? I think there is a slight disconnect between Republicans’ policy preferences and their allegiance to the President. While their support for continuing the war might be weak, they still want to follow President Bush’s lead.
Monday, October 1, 2007
Elon Poll: An Unpopular War
The N&O is reporting more results from the recent Elon Poll. 65% of North Carolina residents disapprove of President Bush’s handling of the War in Iraq. Only 38% approve of his overall job performance.
Also reported:
- 67 percent support a timetable to withdraw some U.S. troops from Iraq by the beginning of 2009, and 64 percent said that they would support a timetable to withdraw some troops by the summer of 2008.
- About 50 percent said the war with Iraq was not worth fighting, with 53 percent saying the United States should no longer be in Iraq.
- 41 percent think that the war has made the nation less safe from terrorism, down from 50 percent five months earlier. 37 percent said they believe the nation is safer, and 15 percent said it is about the same.
- 56 percent felt the nation is more at risk for terrorist attacks, another drop from April, when the figure stood at 61 percent.
On the implications on electoral politics, Hunter Bacot, director of the Elon University Poll, said “more telling is that a majority of people now believe we should not be there and two-thirds want to see troops start coming home by the beginning of next year. Such findings in a 'military friendly' state point to the potential political costs this issue poses for both this administration and the Republican Party over the next year.”
Update: Click here for the news release and here for the results (PDF).
Also reported:
- 67 percent support a timetable to withdraw some U.S. troops from Iraq by the beginning of 2009, and 64 percent said that they would support a timetable to withdraw some troops by the summer of 2008.
- About 50 percent said the war with Iraq was not worth fighting, with 53 percent saying the United States should no longer be in Iraq.
- 41 percent think that the war has made the nation less safe from terrorism, down from 50 percent five months earlier. 37 percent said they believe the nation is safer, and 15 percent said it is about the same.
- 56 percent felt the nation is more at risk for terrorist attacks, another drop from April, when the figure stood at 61 percent.
On the implications on electoral politics, Hunter Bacot, director of the Elon University Poll, said “more telling is that a majority of people now believe we should not be there and two-thirds want to see troops start coming home by the beginning of next year. Such findings in a 'military friendly' state point to the potential political costs this issue poses for both this administration and the Republican Party over the next year.”
Update: Click here for the news release and here for the results (PDF).
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