I’m going to do a little profile about each of the pollsters who are doing work in North Carolina. I think it’s fun and informative to know a bit more about the people behind the numbers.
First up is Tel Opinion Research. They do the polling for the Civitas Institute.
Tel Opinion started in 1995 and is based in Alexandria, Virginia. It’s run by Barry Zeplowitz and Bill Lee, two long time Republican pollsters and strategists.
Barry Zeplowitz is based in Buffalo, NY and has done polling in numerous states for political and market research. He has also been a major player in New York State Assembly Campaigns for the Republican Party. Zeplowitz runs his own polling firm in NY in addition to being VP for Tel Opinion. I'm not sure if Tel Opinion's calls are actually made in NY, but that's a possibility.
Bill Lee, based in Virginia, has worked for four Republican Presidential campaigns, was the first Chairman of the National Association of Republican Campaign Professionals, and he has worked for major Republican committees, professional associations and corporations.
Some of Tel Opinion’s notable clients are American Airlines, Virginia Foxx, Walter Jones, Patrick McHenry, Leo Daughtry, Phil Berger, the Greater Raleigh Chamber of Commerce, Neal Hunt, the John Locke Foundation, the NRCC, the RNC, the RGA, and the NC Senate Republican Caucus.
Tel Opinion played an interesting role in the 2006 Wake County School Bond campaign. In April of 2006 they conducted a poll for the John Locke Foundation that found that a $994 million school bond would fail 32% to 63%. In September of 2006, they were hired by the pro-bond campaign, Friends of Wake County, and that poll found that the bond would pass 56% to 37%.
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6 comments:
regarding this paragraph of your article:
Tel Opinion played an interesting role in the 2006 Wake County School Bond campaign. In April of 2006 they conducted a poll for the John Locke Foundation that found that a $994 million school bond would fail 32% to 63%. In September of 2006, they were hired by the pro-bond campaign, Friends of Wake County, and that poll found that the bond would pass 56% to 37%.
it is theoretically possible that both polls were correct at the time they were taken.
were you able to determine if either, or both, polls were accurate or inaccurate when they were conducted?
regarding this paragraph of your article:
"Tel Opinion played an interesting role in the 2006 Wake County School Bond campaign. In April of 2006 they conducted a poll for the John Locke Foundation that found that a $994 million school bond would fail 32% to 63%. In September of 2006, they were hired by the pro-bond campaign, Friends of Wake County, and that poll found that the bond would pass 56% to 37%."
it is theoretically possible that both polls were correct when they were conducted.
were you able to determine if either, or both, polls were accurate or inaccurate at the time they were taken?
Theoretically both polls could be correct. PPP conducted similar polls on the school bond in May and October. The May poll showed the bond passing 48-41. The October poll had the bond passing 49-41.
So our results in the Spring were very different.
Any idea about differences in question format?
I have no idea about the question wording, but you're right that thats the most likely culprit for the disparity.
^^ nice blog!! ^@^
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