We'll have our new Democratic tracking poll Monday.
I don't see any reason things would have changed much in the race for President or Senate from last week. The word from Kay Hagan that she has over a million dollars in the bank is pretty significant for further on down the road. I've said several times that if she does a significant ad buy and Jim Neal doesn't I think she'll win by 20 points or more. This is confirmation she has the cash to do it, now we'll just see if she has a little more sense than Fred Smith with her money.
I'm beyond trying to predict what's going to happen in the Democratic gubernatorial race on a week to week basis. I think the ad Bev Perdue rolled out this week is better than her previous ones. It's a little more on point in its criticisms of Richard Moore and does a good job of tying positive information about her endorsements into the end of the ad as a sort of complement to the negative stuff about Moore.
That said, I still think the Perdue campaign needs to do a better job of showing how Moore's tenure as Treasurer has hurt average North Carolinians (if that's the theme they're trying to project.) There's not much in there to strike folks at a personal level. There aren't that many voters in NC who have a deep and abiding hatred of Wall Street.
Moore's ads continue to be very sharp as well. He's done a good job of staying on this new theme of populism that he has successfully projected over the last month. Accusing Perdue of 'caving into special interests' and producing 'tax cuts for the wealthy' fits in well with previous ads focusing on affordable college tuition, minimum wage, etc. No wonder we found last week that those who like John Edwards like Richard Moore.
I think his ads are more of a stretch factually when he tries to project the whole state budget onto Perdue or talks about investigations into her campaign finances that she was ultimately cleared for. The reality in politics though is that the truth is what you can get people to believe. Moore's ads are accurate enough that the stations aren't pulling them off their air and so far they seem to be effective in painting a pretty sinister picture of Perdue. At least that's what our numbers are saying.
It'll be interesting to see where things stand.
Friday, April 4, 2008
Frustrating Fred Smith
"I am the true conservative in this governor's race," Smith said, garnering an ovation from the crowd.
That's a line from a story in the New Bern Sun Journal on Wednesday, and it's the story of both the promise and the failure of Fred Smith's campaign for Governor.
The race for the Republican nomination has become a two person contest between Smith and Pat McCrory. And Smith has a lot of material to back up the claim that he's the true conservative in the race when he compares himself to McCrory.
The problem is that while hundreds of thousands of likely Republican primary voters across the state heard McCrory tell them he'll hold the line on taxes during commercials of the UNC-Louisville game last weekend, Smith's still only really spreading his message at comparatively small campaign events with Lee Greenwood.
I figured when the barbecue tour ended, Smith would finally start running a real company with significant media buys both touting his conservative credentials and tearing down McCrory as a liberal. Instead it appears he's moved on to the next marginally effective grassroots tour around North Carolina.
Smith's original strategy was great in a race against Bob Orr and Bill Graham. But when McCrory entered the race the whole landscape changed. Smith's game plan hasn't changed with it. And that may just allow McCrory to walk off with the nomination without a runoff.
That's a line from a story in the New Bern Sun Journal on Wednesday, and it's the story of both the promise and the failure of Fred Smith's campaign for Governor.
The race for the Republican nomination has become a two person contest between Smith and Pat McCrory. And Smith has a lot of material to back up the claim that he's the true conservative in the race when he compares himself to McCrory.
The problem is that while hundreds of thousands of likely Republican primary voters across the state heard McCrory tell them he'll hold the line on taxes during commercials of the UNC-Louisville game last weekend, Smith's still only really spreading his message at comparatively small campaign events with Lee Greenwood.
I figured when the barbecue tour ended, Smith would finally start running a real company with significant media buys both touting his conservative credentials and tearing down McCrory as a liberal. Instead it appears he's moved on to the next marginally effective grassroots tour around North Carolina.
Smith's original strategy was great in a race against Bob Orr and Bill Graham. But when McCrory entered the race the whole landscape changed. Smith's game plan hasn't changed with it. And that may just allow McCrory to walk off with the nomination without a runoff.
Thursday, April 3, 2008
Yesterday at PPP
Our Pennsylvania poll yesterday generated 176,063 visitors to the blog and a call from 'Barack Obama.'
The call from Obama was probably the most bizarre incident of the day. It sounded like someone had created some sort of program where you could type words and it would come out in Obama's voice. So Obama, talking the slowest he's probably ever talked in his life, called to thank us for the poll.
We received many vitriolic e-mails and phone calls. That's par for the course but some people are stupid about it. Most people send them from yahoo or gmail accounts that are untraceable. But one person sent a particularly ugly message from his work email at a hospital in Massachusetts. So I looked up the head of the hospital and forwarded the email to him and asked what their policy was about employees using their work time and resources to send such nastiness was.
There is a gender imbalance in the preferred medium for these irate communications from Clinton supporters (and Obama supporters too when they were mad about our Texas poll.) Men call and leave the ugly voice mails. I've never received an unpleasant call from a woman, but I still hear from them. However, they stick to email.
The most frequent question I got from more level headed media folks yesterday was whether we were surprised at the results. Of course we were. Usually this far out from the election, we'll put out a poll based on one night of polling. But we were surprised when Obama led the poll on Monday so we did a second round on Tuesday. It showed the same results and we ran with it.
Several folks have suggested we shouldn't have released the poll because it was an outlier. Well our South Carolina and Wisconsin polls were outliers too, and at the time we released our final Texas poll it was an outlier too before several other polls showing Clinton ahead came out later in the day. Those polls all ended up being pretty good.
I'm very confident that this poll correctly gaged public opinion as it stood in Pennsylvania on Monday and Tuesday. We'll do it weekly from here on out.
Anyway, I'm sure we'll never have a post get 457 comments again. But who knows.
The call from Obama was probably the most bizarre incident of the day. It sounded like someone had created some sort of program where you could type words and it would come out in Obama's voice. So Obama, talking the slowest he's probably ever talked in his life, called to thank us for the poll.
We received many vitriolic e-mails and phone calls. That's par for the course but some people are stupid about it. Most people send them from yahoo or gmail accounts that are untraceable. But one person sent a particularly ugly message from his work email at a hospital in Massachusetts. So I looked up the head of the hospital and forwarded the email to him and asked what their policy was about employees using their work time and resources to send such nastiness was.
There is a gender imbalance in the preferred medium for these irate communications from Clinton supporters (and Obama supporters too when they were mad about our Texas poll.) Men call and leave the ugly voice mails. I've never received an unpleasant call from a woman, but I still hear from them. However, they stick to email.
The most frequent question I got from more level headed media folks yesterday was whether we were surprised at the results. Of course we were. Usually this far out from the election, we'll put out a poll based on one night of polling. But we were surprised when Obama led the poll on Monday so we did a second round on Tuesday. It showed the same results and we ran with it.
Several folks have suggested we shouldn't have released the poll because it was an outlier. Well our South Carolina and Wisconsin polls were outliers too, and at the time we released our final Texas poll it was an outlier too before several other polls showing Clinton ahead came out later in the day. Those polls all ended up being pretty good.
I'm very confident that this poll correctly gaged public opinion as it stood in Pennsylvania on Monday and Tuesday. We'll do it weekly from here on out.
Anyway, I'm sure we'll never have a post get 457 comments again. But who knows.
Wednesday, April 2, 2008
Kos is full of it
Over at Daily Kos, Kos himself calls our Pennsylvania poll 'ridiculous' and predicts a 15 point victory for Clinton.
In Texas, Kos predicted a 12 point victory for Obama, while we said Clinton would win by 6. She won by 4, which made him off by 16 points off and us off by 2 points.
If he's off by 16 points again in Pennsylvania, Obama will win by one, which will put off our poll by one single point.
I think the only thing 'ridiculous' here is Kos so flippantly writing off our poll, when our recent track record is a heck of a lot better than this.
4/24 Update: Since Kos is linking to this post we'd love for you to take the time to look at our track record this cycle. Our Pennsylvania polls obviously were way off and we're learning from it but overall we have done a pretty good job and hope to bounce back quickly.
In Texas, Kos predicted a 12 point victory for Obama, while we said Clinton would win by 6. She won by 4, which made him off by 16 points off and us off by 2 points.
If he's off by 16 points again in Pennsylvania, Obama will win by one, which will put off our poll by one single point.
I think the only thing 'ridiculous' here is Kos so flippantly writing off our poll, when our recent track record is a heck of a lot better than this.
4/24 Update: Since Kos is linking to this post we'd love for you to take the time to look at our track record this cycle. Our Pennsylvania polls obviously were way off and we're learning from it but overall we have done a pretty good job and hope to bounce back quickly.
Implications of our Pennsylvania Poll for NC
If our Pennsylvania poll today showing Barack Obama leading the state is correct and holds true through the primary, it seems a safe bet that the Democratic nomination process will wrap up the next day. That leads to the question of what impact that would have on the primary in North Carolina.
My guess is that we would still get very high turnout. With all of the energy that will have already gone into registering people to vote, and getting out information about when and where to vote, I don't think that many folks will decide to just stay at home because of the nomination contest wrapping up.
Also, given the passion of Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton's supporters, they may want to get out and vote for their candidates regardless of the race's status. It's not like the Presidential race will be taken off the ballot.
And I know Bev Perdue, Richard Moore, Fred Smith, Pat McCrory, and any other candidates running television ads would sure be happy about the air space opening back up.
My guess is that we would still get very high turnout. With all of the energy that will have already gone into registering people to vote, and getting out information about when and where to vote, I don't think that many folks will decide to just stay at home because of the nomination contest wrapping up.
Also, given the passion of Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton's supporters, they may want to get out and vote for their candidates regardless of the race's status. It's not like the Presidential race will be taken off the ballot.
And I know Bev Perdue, Richard Moore, Fred Smith, Pat McCrory, and any other candidates running television ads would sure be happy about the air space opening back up.
Assessing the Runoffs
Based on our most recent polls, if the undecideds were distributed in the same proportion as current candidate support we would only have three statewide runoffs in North Carolina this year.
One would be in the Democratic race for Labor Commissioner. Distributing the undecideds would give John Brooks 27%, Mary Fant Donnan 27%, Ty Richardson 24%, and Robin Anderson 22%. These candidates are all pretty evenly matched and no one is anywhere close to 40%. I expect this race really will see a runoff.
Another is the Republican race for Lieutenant Governor. Right now Greg Dority would have 37%, Robert Pittenger would have 33%, Jim Snyder would have 20%, and Tim Cook would have 11%. I do not expect to see a runoff in this race. Pittenger is well funded but has held back on his money so far. Once he starts spending it he figures to earn a victory with over 40%.
The third is the Democratic contest for Lieutenant Governor. Based on our poll last week Walter Dalton would be at 33%, Dan Besse at 23%, Pat Smathers at 23%, and Hampton Dellinger at 20%. I imagine that once the candidates start really spending their money in this race we'll see some separation but this one is probably headed for a runoff as well.
There are three other races where distributing the undecideds would put the current leader just over 40%. I think two of those are real runoff possibilities.
In the Democratic Treasurer's race, Janet Cowell would be at 43% followed by David Young at 37%, and Michael Weisel at 20%. Weisel has lagged behind in all of our polling, but he does have a considerable war chest. If he turns it into more of a three way tie, it could head to a runoff. Of course in her senate campaign four years ago many folks thought Cowell was headed for one and she pulled off quite an impressive performance with around 50% of the vote.
In the Democratic Senate race Kay Hagan is projecting to 45% followed by Jim Neal at 26%, Marcus Williams at 14%, Duskin Lassiter at 10%, and Howard Staley at 5%. The 19 point margin between Hagan and Neal seems about right to me, especially if Hagan does a pretty strong media buy and Neal doesn't. I don't think Williams, Lassiter, and Staley will really end up combining for 29% of the vote, and my guess is Hagan ends up somewhere in the 50-60 range while Neal finishes somewhere in the 30-40 range.
Finally there is the Republican race for Superintendent. Right now Richard Morgan would have 45%, followed by Eric Smith with 29% and Joe Johnson at 26%. I imagine Morgan will win without a runoff- unless the Pope machine decides to bring him down. A negative independent expenditure would certainly be a new thing for a Superintendent primary but those folks sure don't like Morgan.
We will have at least a bit of a statewide election on June 24th, but right now it doesn't look like the ballot will be very full.
One would be in the Democratic race for Labor Commissioner. Distributing the undecideds would give John Brooks 27%, Mary Fant Donnan 27%, Ty Richardson 24%, and Robin Anderson 22%. These candidates are all pretty evenly matched and no one is anywhere close to 40%. I expect this race really will see a runoff.
Another is the Republican race for Lieutenant Governor. Right now Greg Dority would have 37%, Robert Pittenger would have 33%, Jim Snyder would have 20%, and Tim Cook would have 11%. I do not expect to see a runoff in this race. Pittenger is well funded but has held back on his money so far. Once he starts spending it he figures to earn a victory with over 40%.
The third is the Democratic contest for Lieutenant Governor. Based on our poll last week Walter Dalton would be at 33%, Dan Besse at 23%, Pat Smathers at 23%, and Hampton Dellinger at 20%. I imagine that once the candidates start really spending their money in this race we'll see some separation but this one is probably headed for a runoff as well.
There are three other races where distributing the undecideds would put the current leader just over 40%. I think two of those are real runoff possibilities.
In the Democratic Treasurer's race, Janet Cowell would be at 43% followed by David Young at 37%, and Michael Weisel at 20%. Weisel has lagged behind in all of our polling, but he does have a considerable war chest. If he turns it into more of a three way tie, it could head to a runoff. Of course in her senate campaign four years ago many folks thought Cowell was headed for one and she pulled off quite an impressive performance with around 50% of the vote.
In the Democratic Senate race Kay Hagan is projecting to 45% followed by Jim Neal at 26%, Marcus Williams at 14%, Duskin Lassiter at 10%, and Howard Staley at 5%. The 19 point margin between Hagan and Neal seems about right to me, especially if Hagan does a pretty strong media buy and Neal doesn't. I don't think Williams, Lassiter, and Staley will really end up combining for 29% of the vote, and my guess is Hagan ends up somewhere in the 50-60 range while Neal finishes somewhere in the 30-40 range.
Finally there is the Republican race for Superintendent. Right now Richard Morgan would have 45%, followed by Eric Smith with 29% and Joe Johnson at 26%. I imagine Morgan will win without a runoff- unless the Pope machine decides to bring him down. A negative independent expenditure would certainly be a new thing for a Superintendent primary but those folks sure don't like Morgan.
We will have at least a bit of a statewide election on June 24th, but right now it doesn't look like the ballot will be very full.
Obama takes the lead in Pennsylvania
Barack Obama 45
Hillary Clinton 43
Barack Obama has taken the lead in Pennsylvania, a remarkable turnaround after trailing Hillary Clinton by 26 points in a PPP poll in the state just two and a half weeks ago.
Obama's steep rise could be a reflection of a growing sense among Democratic voters that a continued divisive nomination process will hurt the party's chances of defeating John McCain this fall. An Obama upset in Pennsylvania would be virtually certain to force Clinton out of the race.
Obama has his customary large advantage with black voters (75-17) and is keeping it relatively competitive with white voters (49-38)
He leads across all age groups except senior citizens and balances Clinton's 10 point lead with women with his own 15 point lead with men.
Full results here.
Hillary Clinton 43
Barack Obama has taken the lead in Pennsylvania, a remarkable turnaround after trailing Hillary Clinton by 26 points in a PPP poll in the state just two and a half weeks ago.
Obama's steep rise could be a reflection of a growing sense among Democratic voters that a continued divisive nomination process will hurt the party's chances of defeating John McCain this fall. An Obama upset in Pennsylvania would be virtually certain to force Clinton out of the race.
Obama has his customary large advantage with black voters (75-17) and is keeping it relatively competitive with white voters (49-38)
He leads across all age groups except senior citizens and balances Clinton's 10 point lead with women with his own 15 point lead with men.
Full results here.
Tuesday, April 1, 2008
Movement in the Governors Race
Over at Talking about Politics, Gary Pearce says we have 'everybody confused' with the constant movement in our recent Gubernatorial polls.
I feel pretty good about all four polls we've put out in the last month on the race except for the one that showed Bev Perdue leading by 27 points. I do think she had a lead in the lower 20s at that point, which was in the middle of a period where she was on the air and Richard Moore wasn't, but I doubt it was really 27.
Why are the numbers moving so wildly? It's because voters are getting a lot of exposure to the race right now but they don't have strong feelings about the candidates one way or the other. In our most recent poll 80% of respondents said they had seen television ads for one of the candidates in the last week. 67% said they'd seen ads for both. So voters are seeing a lot of Moore and Perdue.
At the same time, neither of them has particularly solid support. Our poll last week showed that 50% of likely voters said they might change their minds about who to vote for between now and the election.
The combination of high exposure but low passion levels about the candidates I think makes poll respondents entirely likely to say they support one person one week and then say they support the other person the next week. In the most recent weeks they've each been running a variety of different ads and I think that's probably causing some portion of the electorate to move between them based on who had the most compelling message they had last seen.
It's interesting to note that while the Governor's race moved quite a bit between our poll on March 3rd and our poll on March 30th, the numbers in other state races on the ballot remained almost identical. So it's not like all of our figures are all over the place.
I would not be surprised to see the polling for this race remain somewhat volatile for the last five weeks of the campaign. The circumstances surrounding it are just a recipe for that.
I feel pretty good about all four polls we've put out in the last month on the race except for the one that showed Bev Perdue leading by 27 points. I do think she had a lead in the lower 20s at that point, which was in the middle of a period where she was on the air and Richard Moore wasn't, but I doubt it was really 27.
Why are the numbers moving so wildly? It's because voters are getting a lot of exposure to the race right now but they don't have strong feelings about the candidates one way or the other. In our most recent poll 80% of respondents said they had seen television ads for one of the candidates in the last week. 67% said they'd seen ads for both. So voters are seeing a lot of Moore and Perdue.
At the same time, neither of them has particularly solid support. Our poll last week showed that 50% of likely voters said they might change their minds about who to vote for between now and the election.
The combination of high exposure but low passion levels about the candidates I think makes poll respondents entirely likely to say they support one person one week and then say they support the other person the next week. In the most recent weeks they've each been running a variety of different ads and I think that's probably causing some portion of the electorate to move between them based on who had the most compelling message they had last seen.
It's interesting to note that while the Governor's race moved quite a bit between our poll on March 3rd and our poll on March 30th, the numbers in other state races on the ballot remained almost identical. So it's not like all of our figures are all over the place.
I would not be surprised to see the polling for this race remain somewhat volatile for the last five weeks of the campaign. The circumstances surrounding it are just a recipe for that.
Republican Tracking Poll: the Other Stuff
Elizabeth Dole continues to lead Pete DiLauro 83-10.
His past service as House Speaker is only giving Richard Morgan a small lead in the race for Superintendent. He has 17% to 11% for Eric Smith and 10% for Joe Johnson.
It's becoming clear that Greg Dority and Robert Pittenger are ahead of the field for Lieutenant Governor. Dority currently leads with 17% followed by Pittenger at 15%, with Jim Snyder and Tim Cook further behind with 9% and 5% respectively.
Full results here.
His past service as House Speaker is only giving Richard Morgan a small lead in the race for Superintendent. He has 17% to 11% for Eric Smith and 10% for Joe Johnson.
It's becoming clear that Greg Dority and Robert Pittenger are ahead of the field for Lieutenant Governor. Dority currently leads with 17% followed by Pittenger at 15%, with Jim Snyder and Tim Cook further behind with 9% and 5% respectively.
Full results here.
Republican Tracking Poll: Governor
Pat McCrory 35
Fred Smith 23
Bill Graham 7
Bob Orr 7
Elbie Powers 1
Pat McCrory is the only Republican candidate running an aggressive media campaign right now, and that's allowing him to make significant gains in the polls.
The other contenders will need to step up their campaigns soon to have any chance with the primary just five weeks away.
It is curious that Bill Graham was willing to spend thousands out of his own pocket on issue based media campaigns over the last couple years but has not made the same investment yet in his gubernatorial campaign.
Likewise for Fred Smith who made a huge outlay for barbecue but has had a pretty limited tv run.
With McCrory running perilously close to that magic 40% to avoid a runoff the other GOP contenders need to start attacking and doing more to reach the masses than they are doing now if they want to have any chance.
McCrory is now polling over 20% in all but one region of the state, an indication that he's getting his name out there beyond Charlotte.
Full results here.
Fred Smith 23
Bill Graham 7
Bob Orr 7
Elbie Powers 1
Pat McCrory is the only Republican candidate running an aggressive media campaign right now, and that's allowing him to make significant gains in the polls.
The other contenders will need to step up their campaigns soon to have any chance with the primary just five weeks away.
It is curious that Bill Graham was willing to spend thousands out of his own pocket on issue based media campaigns over the last couple years but has not made the same investment yet in his gubernatorial campaign.
Likewise for Fred Smith who made a huge outlay for barbecue but has had a pretty limited tv run.
With McCrory running perilously close to that magic 40% to avoid a runoff the other GOP contenders need to start attacking and doing more to reach the masses than they are doing now if they want to have any chance.
McCrory is now polling over 20% in all but one region of the state, an indication that he's getting his name out there beyond Charlotte.
Full results here.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
