I'm a few days late on this but Daily Kos recently commissioned a poll from Research 2000 on the North Carolina Senate race that showed some pretty startling results.
Kay Hagan's favorable/unfavorable is 44/25. Elizabeth Dole's is 44/41. That is remarkable!
The horse race shows Dole leading Hagan 48-41 and Jim Neal 49-39.
Looking at the demographic breakdown of the poll nothing really stands out as a red flag so if Kay Hagan runs a strong campaign and her race becomes a money priority nationally maybe we'll have a more competitive race this fall than might have been expected.
In the crosstabs it's interesting to note that Hagan's net favorability- 21/43- is better among Republicans than Dole's is among Democrats- 26/64. I'm guessing a lot fewer Democrats will cross over and vote for Dole because she's a 'nice lady' than did in 2002.
The poll shows less good news for Democrats on the Presidential front- John McCain leads Barack Obama 50-41 and Hillary Clinton 51-39.
Sunday, May 4, 2008
Undecided voters
Our polling, even this weekend, is still showing anywhere from 30 to 50 percent undecided in the down ballot races. There are certainly more folks picking a candidate in those contests than there have been in any of our previous polling but plenty still are not.
I'll be interested in looking at the data after the election if those voters ever made a choice in those races, or just voted for President and maybe Governor and just left the rest blank.
I think our polling in races for things like Auditor and Labor Commissioner is reliable- to the extent that polling of any race showing such a high level of undecideds is reliable- I guess we'll see soon enough.
I'll be interested in looking at the data after the election if those voters ever made a choice in those races, or just voted for President and maybe Governor and just left the rest blank.
I think our polling in races for things like Auditor and Labor Commissioner is reliable- to the extent that polling of any race showing such a high level of undecideds is reliable- I guess we'll see soon enough.
Saturday, May 3, 2008
No bomb from Moore?
When I woke up yesterday I was sure that Richard Moore would drop his final bomb on Bev Perdue. Nothing.
When I woke up today I was even more sure that Richard Moore would drop his final bomb on Bev Perdue. Still nothing.
It could be that his campaign is waiting to do something until it's really too late for Perdue to respond effectively. But it's probably also too late for something at this point to cause enough damage in 48 hours to make up a double digit deficit.
The lack of a final bomb combined with the lack of a real victory party would seem to indicate that the Moore campaign knows it's over. I haven't seen anything in the numbers yet this weekend to the contrary.
But maybe they'll surprise me.
When I woke up today I was even more sure that Richard Moore would drop his final bomb on Bev Perdue. Still nothing.
It could be that his campaign is waiting to do something until it's really too late for Perdue to respond effectively. But it's probably also too late for something at this point to cause enough damage in 48 hours to make up a double digit deficit.
The lack of a final bomb combined with the lack of a real victory party would seem to indicate that the Moore campaign knows it's over. I haven't seen anything in the numbers yet this weekend to the contrary.
But maybe they'll surprise me.
Misconceptions about runoffs
Folks still seem to think there are going to be runoffs in the Republican races for Governor and Lieutenant Governor. They're not looking at the numbers carefully enough- it's not going to happen.
For there to be a runoff in the race for Governor, Bill Graham, Bob Orr, and Elbie Powers would have to combine for at least 22% of the vote and Fred Smith and Pat McCrory would have to tie at 39% each.
Let's look at the polls:
-SurveyUSA earlier this week showed McCrory and Smith combining for 68%, Orr and Graham combining for 12%, and 20% undecided. For Graham and Orr to combine for 22% they would have to get the votes of 50% of the undecideds. Why would they they get 50% of the undecideds when they currently are receiving the votes of only 15% of those who have made up their minds, and when they don't have the resources for final efforts to turn out their voters?
I would be absolutely shocked if there is a runoff, and the reporters and pundits who keep discussing it not just as a possibility, but as a probability aren't paying close enough attention.
Of course I will eat my words if I turn out to be wrong.
Discussing the WRAL Republican Lieutenant Governor poll, a local professor said earlier this week, 'you're probably looking at a runoff on both sides.'
In that poll Robert Pittenger had 25% with the other candidates at 9, 8, and 8 percent respectively. Going from there Pittenger, the only person running with any money, would need just 30% of the undecideds to avoid a runoff when he currently has the votes of 50% of those who have made up their minds. No logical analysis of that poll would lead you to conclude a runoff is likely.
I'll go ahead and tease on Monday's tracking poll- even with 45% or so still undecided in the Republican LG race Pittenger is polling at about 35% so far this weekend. In other words he is getting almost twice as much support as his three opponents combined. No way is a runoff in the future in that race.
For there to be a runoff in the race for Governor, Bill Graham, Bob Orr, and Elbie Powers would have to combine for at least 22% of the vote and Fred Smith and Pat McCrory would have to tie at 39% each.
Let's look at the polls:
-SurveyUSA earlier this week showed McCrory and Smith combining for 68%, Orr and Graham combining for 12%, and 20% undecided. For Graham and Orr to combine for 22% they would have to get the votes of 50% of the undecideds. Why would they they get 50% of the undecideds when they currently are receiving the votes of only 15% of those who have made up their minds, and when they don't have the resources for final efforts to turn out their voters?
I would be absolutely shocked if there is a runoff, and the reporters and pundits who keep discussing it not just as a possibility, but as a probability aren't paying close enough attention.
Of course I will eat my words if I turn out to be wrong.
Discussing the WRAL Republican Lieutenant Governor poll, a local professor said earlier this week, 'you're probably looking at a runoff on both sides.'
In that poll Robert Pittenger had 25% with the other candidates at 9, 8, and 8 percent respectively. Going from there Pittenger, the only person running with any money, would need just 30% of the undecideds to avoid a runoff when he currently has the votes of 50% of those who have made up their minds. No logical analysis of that poll would lead you to conclude a runoff is likely.
I'll go ahead and tease on Monday's tracking poll- even with 45% or so still undecided in the Republican LG race Pittenger is polling at about 35% so far this weekend. In other words he is getting almost twice as much support as his three opponents combined. No way is a runoff in the future in that race.
Friday, May 2, 2008
The things that drive pollsters crazy
Apparently Walter Dalton has hit the airwaves with an ad attacking Hampton Dellinger. I haven't seen it and can't speak to its veracity but it makes sense- yesterday's WRAL poll made it clear that Dalton has a decent chance to win the primary without a runoff and going after Dellinger now could conceivably be the knockout punch. That's why you fire the first (well funded) bomb when you're in the lead.
As a pollster it makes me nuts! If Hillary Clinton or Richard Moore starts running a new ad on Friday night four days before the election who cares. The voters pretty much know who the candidates in those races are and have their opinions about them made up. That's not going to have a great impact on our weekend polling. But this is a whole new stage for the LG race and it makes it hard to poll the race because when we talk to folks tomorrow they probably won't have seen it yet but it's quite possible that by Monday they will have- and it could put them in the Dalton camp because they believe it, in the Dellinger camp because they think he's being targeted unfairly, or into the Besse or Smathers camp because they're seen as above that fray.
It doesn't matter externally as much in this particular race because we're not polling it publicly but if these sorts of race altering things happen with any of the other down ballot contests we're going to have to consider doing an extra poll Monday to try to nail down the races that are close and had potentially number moving events during the weekend.
As a pollster it makes me nuts! If Hillary Clinton or Richard Moore starts running a new ad on Friday night four days before the election who cares. The voters pretty much know who the candidates in those races are and have their opinions about them made up. That's not going to have a great impact on our weekend polling. But this is a whole new stage for the LG race and it makes it hard to poll the race because when we talk to folks tomorrow they probably won't have seen it yet but it's quite possible that by Monday they will have- and it could put them in the Dalton camp because they believe it, in the Dellinger camp because they think he's being targeted unfairly, or into the Besse or Smathers camp because they're seen as above that fray.
It doesn't matter externally as much in this particular race because we're not polling it publicly but if these sorts of race altering things happen with any of the other down ballot contests we're going to have to consider doing an extra poll Monday to try to nail down the races that are close and had potentially number moving events during the weekend.
Wrapping up the WRAL poll
WRAL finally put up the full results from its poll.
The thing that most caught my attention was the crosstabs by race in the Democratic race for Governor. They had Bev Perdue leading 46-35 with white voters and 44-32 with black voters. Our polls and those of SurveyUSA have shown the race much closer with white voters, but Perdue with a significantly larger margin with black voters. Are Moore's ads of late starting to resonate with blacks, but turn off whites? I think it's more likely that their small sample size- 400- means that the individual crosstabs have a large margin of error. But it's certainly something I'll be following this weekend.
The favorable/unfavorable ratings in that race are interesting as well. Perdue's is 46/13, Moore's is 28/18. That's quite a different story from a January WRAL poll that showed Perdue's negatives higher than Moore's. Partially it's because that was a general election poll rather than a primary one- but I wouldn't be surprised if the way each candidate has chosen to wage their campaign in the last three weeks has something to do with it as well. Particularly since respondents had a 57/18 favorable view of Perdue's media campaign, whereas it was 34/32 for Moore.
In the Senate race they have Kay Hagan leading Jim Neal 42-17. I really don't know why our polls have so consistently shown Neal lower than everyone else's. Maybe he'll do better this weekend. Either way it doesn't particularly matter - Hagan's got it on lock.
In the Lieutenant Governor's race Walter Dalton is ahead at 23% followed by Hampton Dellinger with 17%, Pat Smathers with 9% and Dan Besse with 5%. One thing I found interesting there was Dellinger trailing by more- 11 points- with black voters than with the population at large even though he cleaned up on the endorsements of black political organizations across the state. It will be interesting to see if those groups turn their members out on his behalf or not- a lot of that may not show yet in polling more than a few days before the election.
I don't see their Republican poll up yet but if they post it I will have some analysis.
The thing that most caught my attention was the crosstabs by race in the Democratic race for Governor. They had Bev Perdue leading 46-35 with white voters and 44-32 with black voters. Our polls and those of SurveyUSA have shown the race much closer with white voters, but Perdue with a significantly larger margin with black voters. Are Moore's ads of late starting to resonate with blacks, but turn off whites? I think it's more likely that their small sample size- 400- means that the individual crosstabs have a large margin of error. But it's certainly something I'll be following this weekend.
The favorable/unfavorable ratings in that race are interesting as well. Perdue's is 46/13, Moore's is 28/18. That's quite a different story from a January WRAL poll that showed Perdue's negatives higher than Moore's. Partially it's because that was a general election poll rather than a primary one- but I wouldn't be surprised if the way each candidate has chosen to wage their campaign in the last three weeks has something to do with it as well. Particularly since respondents had a 57/18 favorable view of Perdue's media campaign, whereas it was 34/32 for Moore.
In the Senate race they have Kay Hagan leading Jim Neal 42-17. I really don't know why our polls have so consistently shown Neal lower than everyone else's. Maybe he'll do better this weekend. Either way it doesn't particularly matter - Hagan's got it on lock.
In the Lieutenant Governor's race Walter Dalton is ahead at 23% followed by Hampton Dellinger with 17%, Pat Smathers with 9% and Dan Besse with 5%. One thing I found interesting there was Dellinger trailing by more- 11 points- with black voters than with the population at large even though he cleaned up on the endorsements of black political organizations across the state. It will be interesting to see if those groups turn their members out on his behalf or not- a lot of that may not show yet in polling more than a few days before the election.
I don't see their Republican poll up yet but if they post it I will have some analysis.
New NC Presidential polls
I feel like I've been blogging less as the election approaches, which I regret, but we do need to make some money at PPP and the weeks before the election in the state where you are located is the biggest time to do that. So I've been spending most of my time on client work.
Lots of new NC Presidential polls, enough to make your head spin:
-Rasmussen says Obama +9. One interesting thing in their poll is they've upped the black percentage to 36%, I assume based on the early voting trends. That's something we'll be thinking about between now and our final poll(s) as well.
-ARG has Obama up 52-41, pretty similar to their previous poll in the state.
-Zogby has Obama up 50-34. That's an interestingly high level of folks who haven't chosen either Clinton or Obama yet. They have Obama within ten points among white voters, which would certainly be a strong performance for him.
-Late yesterday a McClatchy/Research 2000 poll showed Obama up 51-44. This is totally insider pollster stuff but it's interesting McClatchy teamed up with Research 2000 because they had been doing polls with Mason Dixon the rest of the cycle. Interesting that it changed. I'm pretty sure this decision was made on high at McClatchy rather than Raleigh, given what happened the list time R2K did a poll for the News&Observer.
Lots of new NC Presidential polls, enough to make your head spin:
-Rasmussen says Obama +9. One interesting thing in their poll is they've upped the black percentage to 36%, I assume based on the early voting trends. That's something we'll be thinking about between now and our final poll(s) as well.
-ARG has Obama up 52-41, pretty similar to their previous poll in the state.
-Zogby has Obama up 50-34. That's an interestingly high level of folks who haven't chosen either Clinton or Obama yet. They have Obama within ten points among white voters, which would certainly be a strong performance for him.
-Late yesterday a McClatchy/Research 2000 poll showed Obama up 51-44. This is totally insider pollster stuff but it's interesting McClatchy teamed up with Research 2000 because they had been doing polls with Mason Dixon the rest of the cycle. Interesting that it changed. I'm pretty sure this decision was made on high at McClatchy rather than Raleigh, given what happened the list time R2K did a poll for the News&Observer.
Thursday, May 1, 2008
Obama and North Carolina's neighbors
Barack Obama won three of the primaries in our surrounding states here in North Carolina- South Carolina, Georgia, and Virginia. And in all three of those states the polling vastly underestimated him:
In all three cases Obama won by double digits more than the average preelection poll suggested, and no one got within seven points of the correct margin in any of the states.
Things are going much worse for Obama right now than they were when any of those three states voted but North Carolina is relatively similar demographically to them- a large black population, plenty of college educated liberals, etc. It will be interesting to see if Obama manages to outperform the polls in our corner of the South once again.
| State | Final Real Clear Politics Average | Actual tally | Closest Poll |
| | Obama +12 | Obama +28 | Obama + 20 (PPP) |
| | Obama +18 | Obama +29 | Obama +22 (Survey |
| | Obama +18 | Obama +36 | Obama +22 (Strategic Vision) |
In all three cases Obama won by double digits more than the average preelection poll suggested, and no one got within seven points of the correct margin in any of the states.
Things are going much worse for Obama right now than they were when any of those three states voted but North Carolina is relatively similar demographically to them- a large black population, plenty of college educated liberals, etc. It will be interesting to see if Obama manages to outperform the polls in our corner of the South once again.
Lieutentant Governor's Race
We are getting a lot of queries as to why we have not released numbers in the Democratic contest for Lieutenant Governor recently. The reason is that we have a paying client in the race. There is good news though- WRAL apparently had Mason Dixon poll in the race as part of its survey and I believe they are announcing the LG numbers on the news this evening.
WRAL Poll
If you'd told me two or three weeks ago that I would be more worried about picking the Republican candidate for Governor wrong than the Democratic candidate I don't think I would have believed it. But yesterday's WRAL polls are further confirmation that's where we are.
They show Fred Smith leading Pat McCrory 32-31. Survey USA and PPP still show McCrory leading by four and five points respectively but the WRAL data is fresher and the trend has been in Smith's direction so they may be right. We might have to consider even doing an extra Monday poll after our standard weekend poll if this races remains too close to call.
On the Democratic side WRAL pretty much confirms that Bev Perdue has somewhere around a low double digit lead. The three polls this week have shown it at 9, 11, and 14.
In the Presidential race they show Obama's lead in the state slipping to seven. I find that entirely plausible considering the kind of week Obama is having. It would not be surprising if we find similar slippage in our polling this weekend.
WRAL doesn't seem to have the full data from these polls anywhere on its website or if they do I'm missing it. I really appreciate the fact that WTVD partners with Survey USA and puts everything out there- if you're going to invest in polling you should make as much of the information available to your viewers as possible.
They show Fred Smith leading Pat McCrory 32-31. Survey USA and PPP still show McCrory leading by four and five points respectively but the WRAL data is fresher and the trend has been in Smith's direction so they may be right. We might have to consider even doing an extra Monday poll after our standard weekend poll if this races remains too close to call.
On the Democratic side WRAL pretty much confirms that Bev Perdue has somewhere around a low double digit lead. The three polls this week have shown it at 9, 11, and 14.
In the Presidential race they show Obama's lead in the state slipping to seven. I find that entirely plausible considering the kind of week Obama is having. It would not be surprising if we find similar slippage in our polling this weekend.
WRAL doesn't seem to have the full data from these polls anywhere on its website or if they do I'm missing it. I really appreciate the fact that WTVD partners with Survey USA and puts everything out there- if you're going to invest in polling you should make as much of the information available to your viewers as possible.
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