Thursday, May 1, 2008

Obama and North Carolina's neighbors

Barack Obama won three of the primaries in our surrounding states here in North Carolina- South Carolina, Georgia, and Virginia. And in all three of those states the polling vastly underestimated him:


Final Real Clear Politics Average

Actual tally

Closest Poll

South Carolina

Obama +12

Obama +28

Obama + 20 (PPP)


Obama +18

Obama +29

Obama +22 (Survey USA)


Obama +18

Obama +36

Obama +22 (Strategic Vision)

In all three cases Obama won by double digits more than the average preelection poll suggested, and no one got within seven points of the correct margin in any of the states.

Things are going much worse for Obama right now than they were when any of those three states voted but North Carolina is relatively similar demographically to them- a large black population, plenty of college educated liberals, etc. It will be interesting to see if Obama manages to outperform the polls in our corner of the South once again.


Anonymous said...

In those early primaries, I think a lot of the pollsters underestimated the power of Obama's ground game. That ground game, furthermore, was unchallenged by Clinton's team (even in Virginia, though she was starting to catch on by then).

Furthermore, I think Clinton was focused on other states back then, and now she knows to try to contest every state.

And as you mentioned, Obama has been taking a beating in the press.

So for those reasons, I think the pollsters, and the polls, will be closer this time around. I'm still hoping to see Obama beat expectations.

Anonymous said...

Won't happen.

Anonymous said...

As of tomorrow, May 5th, the Clinton's will have made 71 campaign stops in NC to Obama's 12.

Obama will not outperform polls in NC.

Anonymous said...

71 stops versus 12 should tell you something shouldn't it?

Rasmus said...

Yep, that Obama has already won NC and the Primary Season and knows that.

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