Friday, May 2, 2008

Wrapping up the WRAL poll

WRAL finally put up the full results from its poll.

The thing that most caught my attention was the crosstabs by race in the Democratic race for Governor. They had Bev Perdue leading 46-35 with white voters and 44-32 with black voters. Our polls and those of SurveyUSA have shown the race much closer with white voters, but Perdue with a significantly larger margin with black voters. Are Moore's ads of late starting to resonate with blacks, but turn off whites? I think it's more likely that their small sample size- 400- means that the individual crosstabs have a large margin of error. But it's certainly something I'll be following this weekend.

The favorable/unfavorable ratings in that race are interesting as well. Perdue's is 46/13, Moore's is 28/18. That's quite a different story from a January WRAL poll that showed Perdue's negatives higher than Moore's. Partially it's because that was a general election poll rather than a primary one- but I wouldn't be surprised if the way each candidate has chosen to wage their campaign in the last three weeks has something to do with it as well. Particularly since respondents had a 57/18 favorable view of Perdue's media campaign, whereas it was 34/32 for Moore.

In the Senate race they have Kay Hagan leading Jim Neal 42-17. I really don't know why our polls have so consistently shown Neal lower than everyone else's. Maybe he'll do better this weekend. Either way it doesn't particularly matter - Hagan's got it on lock.

In the Lieutenant Governor's race Walter Dalton is ahead at 23% followed by Hampton Dellinger with 17%, Pat Smathers with 9% and Dan Besse with 5%. One thing I found interesting there was Dellinger trailing by more- 11 points- with black voters than with the population at large even though he cleaned up on the endorsements of black political organizations across the state. It will be interesting to see if those groups turn their members out on his behalf or not- a lot of that may not show yet in polling more than a few days before the election.

I don't see their Republican poll up yet but if they post it I will have some analysis.

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