Three days ago we said Barack Obama was up four in Colorado. Today Rasmussen says John McCain is up a point. I don't know who's right but I can tell you one reason for the difference in our polls.
Rasmussen's numbers are based on 500 interviews conducted Wednesday night.
We did 500 interviews last Tuesday night in Colorado, and based on those McCain was up by a point as well. But we also called everyone in the sample who we didn't reach Tuesday night again Wednesday morning, Wednesday afternoon, Wednesday night, and Thursday afternoon. We got almost another 500 respondents and they went for Obama by a good amount, pushing him to a four point lead.
As far as I can tell Rasmussen just makes calls until they get 500 respondents. When we buy a sample we attempt to reach every number in it at least four times over a period of several days and go with whatever number of respondents we get based on that. And we almost always find that the further into conducting the poll we go, the better Obama does. I don't know if it's that his supporters are harder to get on the line or what, but we're finding that trend in nearly every state we poll.
I'm not saying that one way or another is better- Rasmussen has an outstanding track record- just pointing out that differences in the way we conduct our polls may help explain some of the differences in the numbers we produce. It's not as simple as just saying Rasmussen is Republican and PPP is Democratic.
Thursday, August 14, 2008
Jumping the Gun
Going on the air now if he can't stay on straight through the election is a mistake for Pat McCrory.
He need look no further than several examples already in this cycle:
-Elizabeth Dole made a large ad buy in June, and it did improve her numbers significantly. But after a month off her numbers are right back where they were before. It didn't have any long term impact for her and now that money's gone.
-Richard Moore went on more than three months prior to the primary, but then had to go off for a while. During that period Bev Perdue stayed on. Her lead expanded into the 20s in both PPP and Survey USA's polls.
Going on for the next ten days may give McCrory a temporary boost. In fact if Perdue stays off during that period I wouldn't even be shocked if McCrory is tied or has a small lead in our next poll.
But this $150,000 expenditure reflects more than 20% of McCrory's COH through the end of June. Surely he's raised a lot more money since then but that doesn't change the fact that he's at a significant fundraising deficit relative to her. When October comes around and Perdue's spending him out of the water, whatever bonus he gets from this Olympic media buy is going to be long forgotten.
I think he would have been better off saving the money for the stretch run. But campaigns get panicky and that's just part of the game.
By the way, the gold medal for spending discipline this year goes to Janet Cowell. David Young went on tv a few weeks earlier than her in April and took the lead after Cowell had held it since the field was settled. Cowell held back and did a lot of media the last week, and coasted to a victory with a healthy margin.
He need look no further than several examples already in this cycle:
-Elizabeth Dole made a large ad buy in June, and it did improve her numbers significantly. But after a month off her numbers are right back where they were before. It didn't have any long term impact for her and now that money's gone.
-Richard Moore went on more than three months prior to the primary, but then had to go off for a while. During that period Bev Perdue stayed on. Her lead expanded into the 20s in both PPP and Survey USA's polls.
Going on for the next ten days may give McCrory a temporary boost. In fact if Perdue stays off during that period I wouldn't even be shocked if McCrory is tied or has a small lead in our next poll.
But this $150,000 expenditure reflects more than 20% of McCrory's COH through the end of June. Surely he's raised a lot more money since then but that doesn't change the fact that he's at a significant fundraising deficit relative to her. When October comes around and Perdue's spending him out of the water, whatever bonus he gets from this Olympic media buy is going to be long forgotten.
I think he would have been better off saving the money for the stretch run. But campaigns get panicky and that's just part of the game.
By the way, the gold medal for spending discipline this year goes to Janet Cowell. David Young went on tv a few weeks earlier than her in April and took the lead after Cowell had held it since the field was settled. Cowell held back and did a lot of media the last week, and coasted to a victory with a healthy margin.
DSCC on point
Nothing drives me more crazy than when a campaign runs a series of seemingly disconnected attack ads on its opponent without any overall theme or message. Voters just don't pay enough attention to absorb those one shot attacks unless it's on something that's devastatingly effective. Richard Moore's campaign against Bev Perdue in the spring is a good example of this- one week she was corrupt, the next week she was racist, and ultimately it seemed the voters just decided he was petty.
The DSCC is not falling into that trap in its efforts against Elizabeth Dole. Their early message is that she hasn't been effective in Washington, and both their ads have reflected that. There's already some indication that Dole's numbers are being driven down, and I think the newest ad is an outstanding one. Sinister voice over ads have their place, but I like the creativity and humor in this one and think it's a lot more likely to catch the attention of viewers because it doesn't look like a campaign ad. That's a sure fire way to cut through the glut.
Dole's effectiveness is a good issue to get her on and so far the campaign has been well executed. There should be at least three new polls on this race in the next week and a half (with ours going into the field the latest) and it will certainly be interested to see how much of an impact this stuff continues to have.
The DSCC is not falling into that trap in its efforts against Elizabeth Dole. Their early message is that she hasn't been effective in Washington, and both their ads have reflected that. There's already some indication that Dole's numbers are being driven down, and I think the newest ad is an outstanding one. Sinister voice over ads have their place, but I like the creativity and humor in this one and think it's a lot more likely to catch the attention of viewers because it doesn't look like a campaign ad. That's a sure fire way to cut through the glut.
Dole's effectiveness is a good issue to get her on and so far the campaign has been well executed. There should be at least three new polls on this race in the next week and a half (with ours going into the field the latest) and it will certainly be interested to see how much of an impact this stuff continues to have.
Wednesday, August 13, 2008
SurveyUSA: Hagan on the move
SurveyUSA has its newest numbers for North Carolina out and the big story is Kay Hagan moving up considerably against Elizabeth Dole. Dole's lead is now just 46-41 after being 54-42 in SUSA's previous survey.
The negative ads on Dole's effectiveness must be making a difference, and this is another indication that Dole's June tv buy may have been a little panicky and of low long term impact. Full results here.
The numbers for President are ho hum, more of the same, like pretty much all North Carolina polling since Barack Obama became the presumptive nominee. John McCain leads 49-45. Obama still has work to do nailing his party down, as McCain receives the support of 25% of self identified Democrats. Full results here.
I was most curious with this poll to see whether Survey USA would find Bev Perdue making the same large gain she did in our poll a few weeks ago but for now they show her lead just increasing from one point to three. One reason we showed Perdue with such a big advantage the other week is that she was doing better with Democrats than Pat McCrory was with Republicans but this has McCrory up 82-13 with his party while Perdue leads just 73-19 with hers. I'll be interested to see Civitas' numbers in the near future, and we'll be back in the field in North Carolina next week. Full results here.
The negative ads on Dole's effectiveness must be making a difference, and this is another indication that Dole's June tv buy may have been a little panicky and of low long term impact. Full results here.
The numbers for President are ho hum, more of the same, like pretty much all North Carolina polling since Barack Obama became the presumptive nominee. John McCain leads 49-45. Obama still has work to do nailing his party down, as McCain receives the support of 25% of self identified Democrats. Full results here.
I was most curious with this poll to see whether Survey USA would find Bev Perdue making the same large gain she did in our poll a few weeks ago but for now they show her lead just increasing from one point to three. One reason we showed Perdue with such a big advantage the other week is that she was doing better with Democrats than Pat McCrory was with Republicans but this has McCrory up 82-13 with his party while Perdue leads just 73-19 with hers. I'll be interested to see Civitas' numbers in the near future, and we'll be back in the field in North Carolina next week. Full results here.
Tuesday, August 12, 2008
Hillary Spammers
PPP has received two e-mails today, both blind carbon copied, asking us to start polling Hillary Clinton against John McCain to show that she is the stronger candidate than Barack Obama. They say this will show she should be nominated at the convention.
Does anyone know who's behind this? They're pasted below:
From: TIL [mailto:bxr818@yahoo.com]
Sent: Tue 8/12/2008 7:06 PM
To: self
Subject:
Dear Pollster,
Since Barack Obama has been performing weakly in the polls against John McCain, and also considering the fact that almost two-thirds of
Americans want a Democrat for president, I ask you to please place
Hillary Clinton's name in your presidential polls from now until at
least the convention.
As neither of the two Democratic candidates have the minimum delegate numbers, there is currently still no certified
nominee. It is not too late for the party to re-evaluate (or validate)
their choice with a viable comparison. Perhaps it is time for the pulse
of the American people to be taken again?
Hillary was way ahead of McCain when the polls were done soon after she suspended her campaign.
It would also be of great interest to know how Hillary still polls versus the other Democratic candidate and John McCain in important big states like Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Michigan.
Thank you for your consideration in this matter. I remain,
Sincerely yours,
Teresa Lim
____________________
From: Jessi [mailto:jessi_lc@yahoo.com]
Sent: Tue 8/12/2008 1:47 PM
Subject: Polling on Sen. Clinton...
I've read all your latest polls on Barack Obama vs. John McCain, Would you consider doing some polling as to what would happen if Sen. Clinton were the nominee against McCain? After all, there is no democratic nominee yet, only a presumptive nominee.
Thanks! it would be very interesting.
Jessi LC
Does anyone know who's behind this? They're pasted below:
From: TIL [mailto:bxr818@yahoo.com]
Sent: Tue 8/12/2008 7:06 PM
To: self
Subject:
Dear Pollster,
Since Barack Obama has been performing weakly in the polls against John McCain, and also considering the fact that almost two-thirds of
Americans want a Democrat for president, I ask you to please place
Hillary Clinton's name in your presidential polls from now until at
least the convention.
As neither of the two Democratic candidates have the minimum delegate numbers, there is currently still no certified
nominee. It is not too late for the party to re-evaluate (or validate)
their choice with a viable comparison. Perhaps it is time for the pulse
of the American people to be taken again?
Hillary was way ahead of McCain when the polls were done soon after she suspended her campaign.
It would also be of great interest to know how Hillary still polls versus the other Democratic candidate and John McCain in important big states like Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Michigan.
Thank you for your consideration in this matter. I remain,
Sincerely yours,
Teresa Lim
____________________
From: Jessi [mailto:jessi_lc@yahoo.com]
Sent: Tue 8/12/2008 1:47 PM
Subject: Polling on Sen. Clinton...
I've read all your latest polls on Barack Obama vs. John McCain, Would you consider doing some polling as to what would happen if Sen. Clinton were the nominee against McCain? After all, there is no democratic nominee yet, only a presumptive nominee.
Thanks! it would be very interesting.
Jessi LC
Colorado: Undecideds
With the race for President in Colorado close, it seems worth taking a look at who the undecided voters in the state are at this point:
-They are mostly independents (54%) with some Republicans (27%) and Democrats (18%) sprinkled in. This may seem like a no brainer but it shows that the possible trends of Democrats who supported Hillary not picking Obama and disaffected conservatives not choosing McCain are not really in play here.
-Demographically they are more female, more Hispanic, and younger than the population at large. 60% of them are female compared to 53% overall, 28% are Hispanic compared to 15% overall, and just 11% are over 65 while 19% are under 30 compared to 15% for both of those groups as a whole.
-It's hard to discern much about their general political leanings from their responses to other questions on the survey. They support Bob Schaffer over Mark Udall by a small amount, but they also give Ken Salazar a higher net approval rating than he gets with the general population.
The bottom line: these are all demographics favorable to Barack Obama, but he will need to convince these folks to choose him. The Hispanic vote, both who gets it and how much of it there is, could well decide who wins Colorado. Obama has a solid advantage there right now, but he also has a lot of room to improve.
Keep in mind of course that this analysis is based on the 75 respondents who reported as undecided for President in the survey, so not a huge sample owing to the fact that most voters have made a choice already.
-They are mostly independents (54%) with some Republicans (27%) and Democrats (18%) sprinkled in. This may seem like a no brainer but it shows that the possible trends of Democrats who supported Hillary not picking Obama and disaffected conservatives not choosing McCain are not really in play here.
-Demographically they are more female, more Hispanic, and younger than the population at large. 60% of them are female compared to 53% overall, 28% are Hispanic compared to 15% overall, and just 11% are over 65 while 19% are under 30 compared to 15% for both of those groups as a whole.
-It's hard to discern much about their general political leanings from their responses to other questions on the survey. They support Bob Schaffer over Mark Udall by a small amount, but they also give Ken Salazar a higher net approval rating than he gets with the general population.
The bottom line: these are all demographics favorable to Barack Obama, but he will need to convince these folks to choose him. The Hispanic vote, both who gets it and how much of it there is, could well decide who wins Colorado. Obama has a solid advantage there right now, but he also has a lot of room to improve.
Keep in mind of course that this analysis is based on the 75 respondents who reported as undecided for President in the survey, so not a huge sample owing to the fact that most voters have made a choice already.
State of the Senate race
I've had several people ask me: 'Why is the DSCC spending so much money on Kay Hagan? Isn't Elizabeth Dole unbeatable?'
They're saying that because Dole is up by a good amount in the polls right now. But what they're forgetting is that she only regained her solid standing after a large and very early media buy during the month of June. Before that Hagan had cut the lead to less than five points in most polls.
You might think her poll numbers in early May, coming right off of an active primary campaign, could have been the peak for Hagan. But remember that Elizabeth Dole was not getting bloodied up at all then- Hagan moved up based entirely on a campaign that accentuated her positives.
There are plenty of good lines of attack on Dole, and I think the early ad talking about her #93 effectiveness ranking was one of the better on air efforts of the political season. Now Hagan's up, a good three months before the election.
It's pretty darn unusual to knock off an incumbent without running a strong negative campaign, and third parties are starting to do that on her behalf. Given that Hagan showed she could be competitive with Dole in May polls even before the heat was turned up on her opponent, I think the DSCC's investment is a wise one.
Another thing I've heard: 'well sure there will be negative ads against Dole, but won't there be against Hagan too?' There probably will be, but when you have the name recognition gap Hagan does relative to Dole I think this is a case where really all publicity will be good publicity for the challenger.
Should be interesting to watch...there's enough going on that I'm ready for us to go back to weekly NC tracking polls! But we will probably wait until September for that.
They're saying that because Dole is up by a good amount in the polls right now. But what they're forgetting is that she only regained her solid standing after a large and very early media buy during the month of June. Before that Hagan had cut the lead to less than five points in most polls.
You might think her poll numbers in early May, coming right off of an active primary campaign, could have been the peak for Hagan. But remember that Elizabeth Dole was not getting bloodied up at all then- Hagan moved up based entirely on a campaign that accentuated her positives.
There are plenty of good lines of attack on Dole, and I think the early ad talking about her #93 effectiveness ranking was one of the better on air efforts of the political season. Now Hagan's up, a good three months before the election.
It's pretty darn unusual to knock off an incumbent without running a strong negative campaign, and third parties are starting to do that on her behalf. Given that Hagan showed she could be competitive with Dole in May polls even before the heat was turned up on her opponent, I think the DSCC's investment is a wise one.
Another thing I've heard: 'well sure there will be negative ads against Dole, but won't there be against Hagan too?' There probably will be, but when you have the name recognition gap Hagan does relative to Dole I think this is a case where really all publicity will be good publicity for the challenger.
Should be interesting to watch...there's enough going on that I'm ready for us to go back to weekly NC tracking polls! But we will probably wait until September for that.
Monday, August 11, 2008
Colorado Senate 2010
Ken Salazar Approval:
Approve 39
Disapprove 36
Salazar 49
Tom Tancredo 37
Salazar 46
Mike Coffman 38
Ken Salazar's approval rating continues to languish below 40%, but he does pretty well in match ups against possible 2010 foes Tom Tancredo and Mike Coffman.
Tancredo has been the most open about possibly running in 2010, but he will have some hurdles to climb. He only leads Salazar 66-19 among GOP voters, an indication that he may be a little far out even for some members of his own party. And not surprisingly given his outspokenness on immigration he has a 67-21 gap against Salazar among Hispanics, a voting block that becomes more and more important with each passing Colorado election.
Last month PPP looked at how Salazar might do against Bill Owens and John Elway.
Full results here.
Approve 39
Disapprove 36
Salazar 49
Tom Tancredo 37
Salazar 46
Mike Coffman 38
Ken Salazar's approval rating continues to languish below 40%, but he does pretty well in match ups against possible 2010 foes Tom Tancredo and Mike Coffman.
Tancredo has been the most open about possibly running in 2010, but he will have some hurdles to climb. He only leads Salazar 66-19 among GOP voters, an indication that he may be a little far out even for some members of his own party. And not surprisingly given his outspokenness on immigration he has a 67-21 gap against Salazar among Hispanics, a voting block that becomes more and more important with each passing Colorado election.
Last month PPP looked at how Salazar might do against Bill Owens and John Elway.
Full results here.
Colorado Senate
Mark Udall 47
Bob Schaffer 41
There has been a narrowing trend in this race's polling over the last month or so, and this survey continues that. Although Udall still has a solid lead, it is down from nine points in PPP's poll of the state last month.
The movement in the race over the last month seems to have been among white voters, with what had been a seven point lead for Udall with that group turning into a tie.
Full results here.
Bob Schaffer 41
There has been a narrowing trend in this race's polling over the last month or so, and this survey continues that. Although Udall still has a solid lead, it is down from nine points in PPP's poll of the state last month.
The movement in the race over the last month seems to have been among white voters, with what had been a seven point lead for Udall with that group turning into a tie.
Full results here.
Colorado President
Barack Obama 48
John McCain 44
Barack Obama maintains the same four point lead he showed in PPP's July poll of Colorado.
The key for Obama is that he has held McCain to a one or two point lead among white voters in each of the polls. If he is able to do that in November he will take the state easily because of his dominance with the state's Hispanic voters, with whom he leads 51-36.
Colorado is not a state where Obama is having more trouble holding Democratic voters in the fold than McCain is with Republicans. They each get 84-85% of their party's own support, with Obama holding a 50-35 advantage with independents.
Obama has the edge with every age group except senior citizens.
Full results here.
John McCain 44
Barack Obama maintains the same four point lead he showed in PPP's July poll of Colorado.
The key for Obama is that he has held McCain to a one or two point lead among white voters in each of the polls. If he is able to do that in November he will take the state easily because of his dominance with the state's Hispanic voters, with whom he leads 51-36.
Colorado is not a state where Obama is having more trouble holding Democratic voters in the fold than McCain is with Republicans. They each get 84-85% of their party's own support, with Obama holding a 50-35 advantage with independents.
Obama has the edge with every age group except senior citizens.
Full results here.
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