Public Policy Polling has conducted a lot of surveys on key North Carolina issues over the last eight years but we've never found as little consensus as we did on this one: there is simply no clear favorite for which school will have the best college football team in the state this year.
24% of respondents picked UNC but nipping right at its heels is the dark horse that has emerged from obscurity over the last decade to an amazing record of success: the mighty Mountaineers of Appalachian State are second with 23%.
In a statistical three way tie for third a little further back are NC State at 16%, East Carolina at 15%, and Wake Forest at 13%. Suffice it to say this poll was conducted before last night's debacle at Carter Finley. If we did the poll again this weekend State would perhaps be competing for the basement with Duke, which had 9%. But let's be honest, that's still a testament to the work David Cutcliffe has done turning the program around- would the Devils have pulled anywhere close to 9% two or three years ago?
The bunched up nature of these numbers is not surprising- Carolina, State, Wake, and ECU have all had their up years and their down years over the last decade, never achieving a consistent level of success and certainly not hitting elite status. App has, but at a lower level of competition.
Of course we have to tie this into politics somehow. Not surprisingly Carolina's lead expands to 36-25 among liberal voters- you know all those arrogant lefties in Chapel Hill had to pick the Tar Heels. But among independents Appalachian is first at 28%, followed by ECU at 19%, an indication those voters are looking beyond the football equivalent of the two party system, the ACC.
When it comes to who voters think will have the worst team in the state it's a landslide, the chances of anyone displacing Duke on that front about as good as the chances of a Republican getting elected to the legislature from Durham County. The Devils gets 40%, with Appalachian and ECU tied well behind at 17%.
Of course this is fun but public opinion never won a football game- now that we have last night's middle school scrimmage out of the way, let the games begin!
Full results here
Friday, September 4, 2009
Thursday, September 3, 2009
On Deck
We're going to have a couple poll releases tomorrow.
One is on what Virginians think about the last five Presidents. We did this question in North Carolina a while back and I think it's really interesting so we're probably going to start doing it more often on our state polls.
A few key points:
-Republicans already claim to dislike Barack Obama more than Bill Clinton- that sure didn't take long!
-Among African Americans 31% say that Clinton is their favorite President since 1980 compared to 58% for Obama. That's a pretty strong statement about Clinton's continuing appeal in the black community- I don't think the primary campaign last year did a whole lot of damage to his long term reputation there.
We're also going to kick off the college football season with a look at who North Carolinians think will have the best and worst teams in the state this year:
-Duke wins the 'worst' honors by a big margin, no suspense there. Did I mention the sky was blue?
-The best honors are far more interesting- it's a toss up between the Tar Heels and a school you might not expect!
We'll have both those out tomorrow.
One is on what Virginians think about the last five Presidents. We did this question in North Carolina a while back and I think it's really interesting so we're probably going to start doing it more often on our state polls.
A few key points:
-Republicans already claim to dislike Barack Obama more than Bill Clinton- that sure didn't take long!
-Among African Americans 31% say that Clinton is their favorite President since 1980 compared to 58% for Obama. That's a pretty strong statement about Clinton's continuing appeal in the black community- I don't think the primary campaign last year did a whole lot of damage to his long term reputation there.
We're also going to kick off the college football season with a look at who North Carolinians think will have the best and worst teams in the state this year:
-Duke wins the 'worst' honors by a big margin, no suspense there. Did I mention the sky was blue?
-The best honors are far more interesting- it's a toss up between the Tar Heels and a school you might not expect!
We'll have both those out tomorrow.
Looking at the Party ID Shift
Three recent data points in Colorado, North Carolina, and nationally give an indication that party id has gone down for Democrats, up for independents, and has stayed static for Republicans over the course of 2009.
Our most recent Colorado poll found 39% Republicans, 36% Democrats, and 26% independents. Our final pre election poll there last fall found the same 39% of Republicans, but was 42% Democrats and only 19% independents.
Similar story in North Carolina. Last poll in November we had 49% Democrats, 38% Republicans, and just 13% independents. Our latest was 44% Democrats, 37% Republicans, and 20% independents.
This is why you don't weight every poll for the next four years after an election to whatever the party id breakdown was in a state on the previous Presidential election day. Party id shifts, and it can shift a fair amount quickly.
What's ironic is that the same conservatives who blasted practically every poll we put out last year because they showed a party ID breakdown more Democratic than had been the case in 2004 would probably rip our heads off in this political climate if we decided to weight every poll to the November 2008 party ID breakdown, even though that's only 10 months in the rear view mirror instead of 4 years.
I'll take a look at the shift we've found nationally and what's causing it tomorrow.
Our most recent Colorado poll found 39% Republicans, 36% Democrats, and 26% independents. Our final pre election poll there last fall found the same 39% of Republicans, but was 42% Democrats and only 19% independents.
Similar story in North Carolina. Last poll in November we had 49% Democrats, 38% Republicans, and just 13% independents. Our latest was 44% Democrats, 37% Republicans, and 20% independents.
This is why you don't weight every poll for the next four years after an election to whatever the party id breakdown was in a state on the previous Presidential election day. Party id shifts, and it can shift a fair amount quickly.
What's ironic is that the same conservatives who blasted practically every poll we put out last year because they showed a party ID breakdown more Democratic than had been the case in 2004 would probably rip our heads off in this political climate if we decided to weight every poll to the November 2008 party ID breakdown, even though that's only 10 months in the rear view mirror instead of 4 years.
I'll take a look at the shift we've found nationally and what's causing it tomorrow.
Baker and Hagan
The 2009 race for the Senate in Arkansas is shaping up very similarly to the 2007 race in North Carolina:
-Elizabeth Dole and Blanche Lincoln both seemed like they should be safe for reelection, but became vulnerable as the national climate turned against their parties.
-Their national parties both saw the opportunities opening there, but had a very hard time convincing any potential candidates with significant name recognition to enter the race.
-In both cases attempts were made to recruit a state senator into the race, who declined, and then ended up changing their minds and getting in when no other suitable candidate signed up to run.
So there are strong parallels in the pre-election year stories of these two contests- but it will be a long time until we find out if Gilbert Baker is the 2010 version of Kay Hagan. One thing's for sure- Blanche Lincoln's spent more time in Arkansas during her time in office than Dole had in North Carolina!
-Elizabeth Dole and Blanche Lincoln both seemed like they should be safe for reelection, but became vulnerable as the national climate turned against their parties.
-Their national parties both saw the opportunities opening there, but had a very hard time convincing any potential candidates with significant name recognition to enter the race.
-In both cases attempts were made to recruit a state senator into the race, who declined, and then ended up changing their minds and getting in when no other suitable candidate signed up to run.
So there are strong parallels in the pre-election year stories of these two contests- but it will be a long time until we find out if Gilbert Baker is the 2010 version of Kay Hagan. One thing's for sure- Blanche Lincoln's spent more time in Arkansas during her time in office than Dole had in North Carolina!
A deeper look at Obama approval shifts
With all this talk of Barack Obama's approval falling apart, I thought it would be interesting to compare where his approval rating was in April and where it is now among some key voter groups to separate out the facts from the myths:
False:
-Health care is causing conservative Democrats to abandon Obama. In April our national polling found his approval with them at 67%, now it's actually at 69%. That doesn't mean they necessarily agree with the President on this issue- they broke down 48/29 in support on our most recent poll- but it's not a deal breaker in overall perceptions of him with most of those voters.
-Liberal voters are unhappy with Obama for not being forceful enough in enacting a progressive agenda. I get this from blog commenters all the time but it's just not broadly true. Five months ago his approval with liberal Democrats was 86%, now we find that up to 94%. One thing the President most certainly does not have is a base problem.
-Obama's lost all of his support from moderate Republicans. His approval with them in April was 34%, and it's still 34%. That's not an enormous amount of favor but it's surely better than George W. Bush's numbers with moderate Democrats for the bulk of his administration.
True:
-Obama's losing favor with conservative leaning independent voters. These seem to be the folks who health care is giving him the hardest time with- only 13% of them say they're with him on that issue and the price to pay for that is a drop in his approval with them from 31% in April to now 16%. The question you have to ask yourself about these folks is whether Obama had any chance of not losing their favor if he actually pursued his policy agenda- maybe he could have kept them happy by doing nothing, but then what's the point of being President?
-He's had a modest decline with moderate independents- from 64% to 57%. This is where I would be most concerned if I was Obama because they may be the group of voters most inclined to swing from election to election. I think the bottom line with these folks is concern for the economy- they're blaming Obama now more so than earlier in the year because they're impatient to see progress in their lives and whether they vote for him again in 2012 is probably dependent on the extent to which things have turned around.
Here's the full data:
False:
-Health care is causing conservative Democrats to abandon Obama. In April our national polling found his approval with them at 67%, now it's actually at 69%. That doesn't mean they necessarily agree with the President on this issue- they broke down 48/29 in support on our most recent poll- but it's not a deal breaker in overall perceptions of him with most of those voters.
-Liberal voters are unhappy with Obama for not being forceful enough in enacting a progressive agenda. I get this from blog commenters all the time but it's just not broadly true. Five months ago his approval with liberal Democrats was 86%, now we find that up to 94%. One thing the President most certainly does not have is a base problem.
-Obama's lost all of his support from moderate Republicans. His approval with them in April was 34%, and it's still 34%. That's not an enormous amount of favor but it's surely better than George W. Bush's numbers with moderate Democrats for the bulk of his administration.
True:
-Obama's losing favor with conservative leaning independent voters. These seem to be the folks who health care is giving him the hardest time with- only 13% of them say they're with him on that issue and the price to pay for that is a drop in his approval with them from 31% in April to now 16%. The question you have to ask yourself about these folks is whether Obama had any chance of not losing their favor if he actually pursued his policy agenda- maybe he could have kept them happy by doing nothing, but then what's the point of being President?
-He's had a modest decline with moderate independents- from 64% to 57%. This is where I would be most concerned if I was Obama because they may be the group of voters most inclined to swing from election to election. I think the bottom line with these folks is concern for the economy- they're blaming Obama now more so than earlier in the year because they're impatient to see progress in their lives and whether they vote for him again in 2012 is probably dependent on the extent to which things have turned around.
Here's the full data:
| Group | April Approval | August Approval |
| Liberal Democrats | 86 | 94 |
| Moderate Democrats | 86 | 85 |
| Conservative Democrats | 67 | 69 |
| Moderate Independents | 64 | 57 |
| Moderate Republicans | 34 | 34 |
| Conservative Independents | 31 | 16 |
| Conservative Republicans | 10 | 5 |
Wednesday, September 2, 2009
Virginia Potpourri
The second part of our Virginia poll contains a variety of stuff:
-49% of likely voters for this fall say they oppose Barack Obama's plans for health care, while just 38% are in support. This generally tracks PPP's polling on the issue both nationally and in Colorado and North Carolina, two states that he won last fall along with Virginia. His overall approval rating in the state is 47% with 49% of voters disapproving.
The important thing to remember with these numbers is that they're among the likely electorate for this fall's race for Governor, rather than all voters in the state. If we were polling the same universe that voted in the 2008 election, the numbers suggest Obama's approval rating would be 52-53%. His standing is basically what it was on election day- 91% of those who voted for him like the job he's doing while only 11% who didn't vote for him express approval. If he had to stand for reelection today he would still more than likely take Virginia.
-Could a George Allen comeback be in the future? 50% of voters in the state have a favorable opinion of him to 38% unfavorable. Compared to the other politicians on this poll that makes him less popular than Mark Warner and Bob McDonnell, but more popular than Barack Obama, Tim Kaine, and Jim Webb. 31% of the electorate says they would definitely vote for Allen if he made a future run for office, while 36% say they definitely would not. 31% said they would consider it depending on the circumstances. So he's not overwhelmingly popular, but it looks like he would have a shot if he decided he wanted to get back into the game.
-Only 25% of voters in the state are familiar with the issues surrounding Delegate Phil Hamilton right now, but among those who are 65% think he should resign while only 16% say he should not. Interestingly the spread of Republicans saying he should resign (+46) is higher than among Democrats (+43), an indication that his fate is not playing out with the voters as much of a partisan issue. More than half of voters in Hampton Roads are familiar with his troubles and the numbers on his resignation there largely track the rest of the state- 64% in support, 19% opposed.
-Tim Kaine's approval rating breaks down 47/38. That is actually quite good for a big state Governor right now, and especially for a big state Democratic Governor. By comparison our most recent poll on Bev Perdue in North Carolina had her approval in the 20s. Mark Warner continues to be one of the most popular Senators in the country at 54/30, and Jim Webb's rating of 47/40 is the best PPP has ever found it, perhaps an indication of good will earned by positive coverage of his recent trip to Asia.
Full results here
-49% of likely voters for this fall say they oppose Barack Obama's plans for health care, while just 38% are in support. This generally tracks PPP's polling on the issue both nationally and in Colorado and North Carolina, two states that he won last fall along with Virginia. His overall approval rating in the state is 47% with 49% of voters disapproving.
The important thing to remember with these numbers is that they're among the likely electorate for this fall's race for Governor, rather than all voters in the state. If we were polling the same universe that voted in the 2008 election, the numbers suggest Obama's approval rating would be 52-53%. His standing is basically what it was on election day- 91% of those who voted for him like the job he's doing while only 11% who didn't vote for him express approval. If he had to stand for reelection today he would still more than likely take Virginia.
-Could a George Allen comeback be in the future? 50% of voters in the state have a favorable opinion of him to 38% unfavorable. Compared to the other politicians on this poll that makes him less popular than Mark Warner and Bob McDonnell, but more popular than Barack Obama, Tim Kaine, and Jim Webb. 31% of the electorate says they would definitely vote for Allen if he made a future run for office, while 36% say they definitely would not. 31% said they would consider it depending on the circumstances. So he's not overwhelmingly popular, but it looks like he would have a shot if he decided he wanted to get back into the game.
-Only 25% of voters in the state are familiar with the issues surrounding Delegate Phil Hamilton right now, but among those who are 65% think he should resign while only 16% say he should not. Interestingly the spread of Republicans saying he should resign (+46) is higher than among Democrats (+43), an indication that his fate is not playing out with the voters as much of a partisan issue. More than half of voters in Hampton Roads are familiar with his troubles and the numbers on his resignation there largely track the rest of the state- 64% in support, 19% opposed.
-Tim Kaine's approval rating breaks down 47/38. That is actually quite good for a big state Governor right now, and especially for a big state Democratic Governor. By comparison our most recent poll on Bev Perdue in North Carolina had her approval in the 20s. Mark Warner continues to be one of the most popular Senators in the country at 54/30, and Jim Webb's rating of 47/40 is the best PPP has ever found it, perhaps an indication of good will earned by positive coverage of his recent trip to Asia.
Full results here
Where Deeds has work to do
I thought perhaps the most interesting factoid on our Virginia poll this week was that while Bob McDonnell was getting 93% of the self identified Jerry Kilgore vote, Creigh Deeds was getting just 76% of the Tim Kaine vote.
Who are those Kaine voters Deeds is missing out on?
-They're disproportionately in Hampton Roads. That's probably a regional pride thing, and it's not going to be easy for Deeds to overcome it with those voters.
-Our poll only included 7 Republicans who said they were going to vote for Deeds this year. But it included 22 Republicans who said they voted for Kaine and now weren't going to pick Deeds. Not sure what to make of that- do they like McDonnell more than Kilgore, do they like Deeds less than Kaine, or do they just think that with their party out of power across the board they'd better support their nominee? Probably a mix of those, but the practical implication is that Deeds is getting basically zero crossover support.
-More than half are moderates- it will be interesting to see if the Deeds campaign is able to effectively use The Thesis to win some of those folks back over.
-And of course 45% of them are independents, and Deeds' struggles with that group are the story of the election right now.
One key thing to note is of the Kaine voters not supporting Deeds 45% say they're voting for McDonnell but 55% are still undecided- you would think he would have the upper hand with those voters and just needs to give them a reason to vote for him- or against McDonnell.
Who are those Kaine voters Deeds is missing out on?
-They're disproportionately in Hampton Roads. That's probably a regional pride thing, and it's not going to be easy for Deeds to overcome it with those voters.
-Our poll only included 7 Republicans who said they were going to vote for Deeds this year. But it included 22 Republicans who said they voted for Kaine and now weren't going to pick Deeds. Not sure what to make of that- do they like McDonnell more than Kilgore, do they like Deeds less than Kaine, or do they just think that with their party out of power across the board they'd better support their nominee? Probably a mix of those, but the practical implication is that Deeds is getting basically zero crossover support.
-More than half are moderates- it will be interesting to see if the Deeds campaign is able to effectively use The Thesis to win some of those folks back over.
-And of course 45% of them are independents, and Deeds' struggles with that group are the story of the election right now.
One key thing to note is of the Kaine voters not supporting Deeds 45% say they're voting for McDonnell but 55% are still undecided- you would think he would have the upper hand with those voters and just needs to give them a reason to vote for him- or against McDonnell.
Tuesday, September 1, 2009
More on liberal voters getting taken for granted
I've been writing a fair amount recently about why Democratic leaders often take liberal voters for granted and instead spend a lot of their energy trying to appease the conservative wing of the party. It's not really my job to say what the party should do, but I'm trying to use our numbers to get a greater understanding of why they do what they do.
Our national Congressional poll today is a good prism into that.
88% of liberal Democrats say that Congressional Democrats are doing a good job. They say they'll vote Democratic next year 91-9.
74% of moderate Democrats say that Congressional Democrats are doing a good job. They say they'll vote Democratic next year 84-9.
Then there are the conservative Democrats. Only 38% of them say that Congressional Democrats are doing a good job. And they only say they'll vote Democratic next year 59-20.
So 80% of Democrats are liberals or moderates and they tend to pretty much be in agreement on issues like the public option, but they're also the most reliably Democratic voters. That quite often causes a lot of officials to spend their energy appeasing that remaining 20% who are a threat to stray, even if it means working against what a significant majority of Democrats overall want. Absent primary challenges there isn't a whole lot frustrated progressives can do about that at the polls in a two party system- the alternative is worse. Persuading party leaders in Congress to do the right thing is the only, but often ineffectual, way to get things done.
It's a lot easier for Republicans to stay on the same page due to the lack of ideological diversity in the party. There was one liberal Republican in this survey (she doesn't like either Congressional Democrats or Republicans, but says she's voting GOP next year.) 73% are conservatives, and they're pretty content for the party to be against everything and keep on voting for them- 92% support for the party on the generic ballot.
Our national Congressional poll today is a good prism into that.
88% of liberal Democrats say that Congressional Democrats are doing a good job. They say they'll vote Democratic next year 91-9.
74% of moderate Democrats say that Congressional Democrats are doing a good job. They say they'll vote Democratic next year 84-9.
Then there are the conservative Democrats. Only 38% of them say that Congressional Democrats are doing a good job. And they only say they'll vote Democratic next year 59-20.
So 80% of Democrats are liberals or moderates and they tend to pretty much be in agreement on issues like the public option, but they're also the most reliably Democratic voters. That quite often causes a lot of officials to spend their energy appeasing that remaining 20% who are a threat to stray, even if it means working against what a significant majority of Democrats overall want. Absent primary challenges there isn't a whole lot frustrated progressives can do about that at the polls in a two party system- the alternative is worse. Persuading party leaders in Congress to do the right thing is the only, but often ineffectual, way to get things done.
It's a lot easier for Republicans to stay on the same page due to the lack of ideological diversity in the party. There was one liberal Republican in this survey (she doesn't like either Congressional Democrats or Republicans, but says she's voting GOP next year.) 73% are conservatives, and they're pretty content for the party to be against everything and keep on voting for them- 92% support for the party on the generic ballot.
Voters extremely unhappy with Congress
In your average election year incumbent members of Congress running for reelection get a share of the vote somewhere in the upper 60s. But our newest national poll finds that if there was an election today, only 47% of voters in the country say they would vote to reelect their current Representative, with 33% saying they would definitely vote for a challenger and 20% unsure.
Those numbers are a reflection of widespread dissatisfaction with both the Democrats and Republicans in Washington. Only 36% of voters approve of the job Congressional Democrats are doing, and for Congressional Republicans that number declines to 32%.
Independent voters are particularly down on both parties, giving each a 25% approval rating. Democratic voters are more happy with their party, giving it a 74% approval rating, than Republicans are with theirs, giving it a 57% approval rating.
When voters are mad at Washington it tends to be the party in power that pays the price and our first look at the generic Congressional ballot for this election cycle reflects that. 45% of voters say they would choose a Republican if there was an election being held today, while 41% say they would vote Democratic.
That result is largely a function of independents saying they would vote Republican by a margin of 40-31. Democrats and Republicans are mostly committed to their parties, as you would expect.
Among voters who are unhappy with both Congressional Democrats and Republicans, the GOP leads on the generic ballot 50-14, a reflection of the fact that even if people don't like you they might turn to you as the alternative when you're the party out of power.
It's a long way until November 2010 but these numbers suggest we could see a whole lot of seats shift next year. That would largely be in a Republican direction, but with the extent to which voters are unhappy with incumbents generally you could see a number of sitting Representatives in both parties go down.
Full results here
Those numbers are a reflection of widespread dissatisfaction with both the Democrats and Republicans in Washington. Only 36% of voters approve of the job Congressional Democrats are doing, and for Congressional Republicans that number declines to 32%.
Independent voters are particularly down on both parties, giving each a 25% approval rating. Democratic voters are more happy with their party, giving it a 74% approval rating, than Republicans are with theirs, giving it a 57% approval rating.
When voters are mad at Washington it tends to be the party in power that pays the price and our first look at the generic Congressional ballot for this election cycle reflects that. 45% of voters say they would choose a Republican if there was an election being held today, while 41% say they would vote Democratic.
That result is largely a function of independents saying they would vote Republican by a margin of 40-31. Democrats and Republicans are mostly committed to their parties, as you would expect.
Among voters who are unhappy with both Congressional Democrats and Republicans, the GOP leads on the generic ballot 50-14, a reflection of the fact that even if people don't like you they might turn to you as the alternative when you're the party out of power.
It's a long way until November 2010 but these numbers suggest we could see a whole lot of seats shift next year. That would largely be in a Republican direction, but with the extent to which voters are unhappy with incumbents generally you could see a number of sitting Representatives in both parties go down.
Full results here
Virginia Race Tightens Up
The race to be the next Governor of Virginia is back in single digits, as Creigh Deeds has pulled to within 49-42 against Bob McDonnell after trailing 51-37 a month ago.
The movement in the race seems to be driven largely by an increase in Democratic enthusiasm for Deeds' candidacy. For instance where Deeds was winning only 64% of the black vote a month ago he's now at 81%, perhaps an indication that radio ads on his behalf from Barack Obama are paying off. And where a month ago Democratic interest in the election was so low that those planning to vote in November had supported John McCain by a 52-41 margin last year even though Obama won the state by six points, we now find that spread at only 49-45 in McCain's favor. So even though the likely electorate is still considerably more conservative than the folks who turned out in 2008, Deeds is at least closing that gap.
Overall McDonnell continues to be in a very solid position though- most eye catching is his 60-29 lead among independent voters, likely an indication that the shift in the national climate benefiting Republicans over the last few months is helping his candidacy as well. McDonnell is earning the votes of 14% of respondents who said they voted for Tim Kaine in 2005, while Deeds is winning only 2% of Jerry Kilgore's supporters.
The attacks against McDonnell appear to be having at least some impact on his negatives. Where a month ago his favorability was 54/26, it's now 53/31. Deeds' name recognition has increased but his net popularity is about the same, going from 43/32 to 47/35.
The big question in the race right now of course is the impact that the revelations from McDonnell's thesis at Regent University will or will not have. Unfortunately we completed 86% of the interviews for this poll on Friday and Saturday so the numbers don't fully reflect any fall out from that story. However it is worth noting that while McDonnell led 50-41 in the two days of polling before the article, Deeds actually led 50-42 in the 83 interviews conducted on Sunday and Monday. That should be taken with a grain of salt since the margin of error on that small a sample is +/-10.8% but it is somewhat unusual for numbers to shift that strongly over the course of a field period and it will be interesting to see the next rounds of polling conducted completely once the story has set in. It's the kind of thing that could get sleepy Democratic voters more engaged to head out to the polls in November.
Republicans continue to hold their leads in the other statewide contests- Bill Bolling is up 46-40 against Jody Wagner to keep his post as Lieutenant Governor, and Ken Cuccinelli has a 48-35 advantage over Steve Shannon for Attorney General.
Full results here
The movement in the race seems to be driven largely by an increase in Democratic enthusiasm for Deeds' candidacy. For instance where Deeds was winning only 64% of the black vote a month ago he's now at 81%, perhaps an indication that radio ads on his behalf from Barack Obama are paying off. And where a month ago Democratic interest in the election was so low that those planning to vote in November had supported John McCain by a 52-41 margin last year even though Obama won the state by six points, we now find that spread at only 49-45 in McCain's favor. So even though the likely electorate is still considerably more conservative than the folks who turned out in 2008, Deeds is at least closing that gap.
Overall McDonnell continues to be in a very solid position though- most eye catching is his 60-29 lead among independent voters, likely an indication that the shift in the national climate benefiting Republicans over the last few months is helping his candidacy as well. McDonnell is earning the votes of 14% of respondents who said they voted for Tim Kaine in 2005, while Deeds is winning only 2% of Jerry Kilgore's supporters.
The attacks against McDonnell appear to be having at least some impact on his negatives. Where a month ago his favorability was 54/26, it's now 53/31. Deeds' name recognition has increased but his net popularity is about the same, going from 43/32 to 47/35.
The big question in the race right now of course is the impact that the revelations from McDonnell's thesis at Regent University will or will not have. Unfortunately we completed 86% of the interviews for this poll on Friday and Saturday so the numbers don't fully reflect any fall out from that story. However it is worth noting that while McDonnell led 50-41 in the two days of polling before the article, Deeds actually led 50-42 in the 83 interviews conducted on Sunday and Monday. That should be taken with a grain of salt since the margin of error on that small a sample is +/-10.8% but it is somewhat unusual for numbers to shift that strongly over the course of a field period and it will be interesting to see the next rounds of polling conducted completely once the story has set in. It's the kind of thing that could get sleepy Democratic voters more engaged to head out to the polls in November.
Republicans continue to hold their leads in the other statewide contests- Bill Bolling is up 46-40 against Jody Wagner to keep his post as Lieutenant Governor, and Ken Cuccinelli has a 48-35 advantage over Steve Shannon for Attorney General.
Full results here
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