Wednesday, September 2, 2009

Virginia Potpourri

The second part of our Virginia poll contains a variety of stuff:

-49% of likely voters for this fall say they oppose Barack Obama's plans for health care, while just 38% are in support. This generally tracks PPP's polling on the issue both nationally and in Colorado and North Carolina, two states that he won last fall along with Virginia. His overall approval rating in the state is 47% with 49% of voters disapproving.

The important thing to remember with these numbers is that they're among the likely electorate for this fall's race for Governor, rather than all voters in the state. If we were polling the same universe that voted in the 2008 election, the numbers suggest Obama's approval rating would be 52-53%. His standing is basically what it was on election day- 91% of those who voted for him like the job he's doing while only 11% who didn't vote for him express approval. If he had to stand for reelection today he would still more than likely take Virginia.

-Could a George Allen comeback be in the future? 50% of voters in the state have a favorable opinion of him to 38% unfavorable. Compared to the other politicians on this poll that makes him less popular than Mark Warner and Bob McDonnell, but more popular than Barack Obama, Tim Kaine, and Jim Webb. 31% of the electorate says they would definitely vote for Allen if he made a future run for office, while 36% say they definitely would not. 31% said they would consider it depending on the circumstances. So he's not overwhelmingly popular, but it looks like he would have a shot if he decided he wanted to get back into the game.

-Only 25% of voters in the state are familiar with the issues surrounding Delegate Phil Hamilton right now, but among those who are 65% think he should resign while only 16% say he should not. Interestingly the spread of Republicans saying he should resign (+46) is higher than among Democrats (+43), an indication that his fate is not playing out with the voters as much of a partisan issue. More than half of voters in Hampton Roads are familiar with his troubles and the numbers on his resignation there largely track the rest of the state- 64% in support, 19% opposed.

-Tim Kaine's approval rating breaks down 47/38. That is actually quite good for a big state Governor right now, and especially for a big state Democratic Governor. By comparison our most recent poll on Bev Perdue in North Carolina had her approval in the 20s. Mark Warner continues to be one of the most popular Senators in the country at 54/30, and Jim Webb's rating of 47/40 is the best PPP has ever found it, perhaps an indication of good will earned by positive coverage of his recent trip to Asia.

Full results here


Anonymous said...


You haven't answered the question. Is it possible that the 2008 electorate no longer exists?

Think about it. You show Obama at 47/49 with a D/R/I split of 38/31/31. That's as favorable a D/R/I split for Obama as it was on November 4th, if not more.

Ian Lazaran said...

Also Tom,

Your poll shows 52/39 split between Kaine and Kilgore when the actual vote was 51/46.

Do you really still believe Obama's numbers are higher than what you show considering such a gap?

Brandon said...

I have to agree with anonymous. Why is it not possible that the partisan makeup as it existed in November 2008, no longer exists in September 2009?

You speak of alternate universes where Obama's approval numbers are rationally two different sets of numbers. It's similar to saying, "Bush's approval rating in January 2007 are really bad given the electorate that month, but actually quite good given the electorate from January 2005." I feel like you could make an equivalent argument for nearly every recent President's approval rating. Sounds a lot like spin to me - but hey, we're all guilty of it, aren't we?

Anonymous said...

"If he [Obama] had to stand for reelection today he would still more than likely take Virginia."

That's a bold statement, and if it were legal to do so (and if I had any money) I'd bet ya he wouldn't. The mask is off Obama, and it ain't very pretty.

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