The last two months have not been good for Alexi Giannoulias, and Mark Kirk now leads him 37-33 in his bid to be the next Senator from Illinois.
A PPP survey taken a week and a half before the primary found Giannoulias up 42-34 on Kirk. But the closing stretch of the campaign did not go well for the Democratic nominee, with the attacks on him resulting in a final margin of victory that was a good deal less than what he had shown in earlier polls. Since then most of the news for him has been bad.
The main reason Giannoulias is behind is that he's getting only 54% of the Democratic vote while Kirk is winning 77% of the Republican vote. It's not that a lot of Democrats are planning to cross over and vote for Kirk, but 36% of them are undecided right now compared to just 16% of Republicans. That suggests Democratic voters don't really know what to make of Giannoulias' problems right now so they're just taking a wait and see approach to the race.
It's clear that the movement in Kirk's direction over the last two months has nothing to do with him and everything to do with Giannoulias. A majority of voters in the state have no opinion of Kirk and his favorability spread of 24/23 is almost identical to the 27/22 he sported in late January. Giannoulias has seen his favorability drop from 31% to 21% and his unfavorability increase from 19% to 28% in that period of time.
Also not helping Giannoulias is that President Obama is not nearly as popular in the state as he once was. 50% of voters approve of the job he's doing to 42% who disapprove. His 7% approval rating with home state Republicans is just as bad as it is with them nationally and his 81% standing with Democrat is about par for the course. He does continue to be more popular with independents in Illinois than he is in most states, with 51% of them approving of his job performance to 38% disapproving. Voters in the state express support for his health care plan by only a 46/43 margin.
The large mass of undecided Democrats are the critical bloc of voters in this race. If they come home to Giannoulias he'll probably still win- this continues to be a very Democratic state. But if they- unhappy with both Giannoulias and Pat Quinn- decide to just stay home or even worse to vote Republican Kirk has a pretty decent shot at winning this. There may not be a state in the country where Democrats have a weaker top of the ticket at this point than Quinn and Giannoulas.
Full results here
Tuesday, April 6, 2010
Toomey has small lead on Specter
More Pennsylvania voters are unhappy with Barack Obama's job performance than content with it, and that's a big part of why Pat Toomey currently holds a 46-43 lead over Arlen Specter in his bid to be the state's next Senator.
50% of voters in the state give Obama poor marks while 46% think he's doing a good job. 76% of Democrats like the job he's doing but only 12% of Republicans do, and independents are split against him by a 52/42 margin as well.
With voters who like the job Obama is doing Specter leads the Senate race 79-8. But with voters who are unhappy with Obama Toomey has the 81-10 advantage. Given those numbers it seems a good bet that if Obama's approval was still in positive territory Specter would be leading the race.
Specter does have very bad approval numbers, as 52% of voters disapprove of him to just 34% who like how he's doing. Republicans don't like him any more than they like Barack Obama- 12% approve of him while 78% disapprove. The biggest thing hurting his numbers though is a lack on enthusiasm for him from his own party- just 53% of Democrats give him good marks while 30% disapprove.
A year after his party switch it's clear that move made Republicans dislike him more than it made Democrats like him. But he's still competitive in the horse race despite his atrocious approval because most of those Democrats who don't approve of him will still vote for him in the fall if he's the party nominee.
Toomey leads Joe Sestak by a slightly larger margin, 42-36. Sestak and Toomey are both blank slates to most voters in the state- 65% have no opinion of Sestak and 58% have no opinion of Toomey.
The issue of health care is not doing Democrats in Pennsylvania any favors. 49% of voters are opposed to the bill that was passed last month with only 42% supportive. And an equal 49% express support for repealing the bill to 44% who are opposed to such a move.
This race is basically a toss up at this point. The big question is whether this represents the low water mark for Democrats in this election cycle. There are a couple of paths to reelection for Specter despite his unpopularity. If Obama's numbers go back up he'll more than likely bring Specter along for the ride.
And if that doesn't happen Specter still has an opportunity to define Toomey to the 58% of voters who have no opinion of him right now in a very negative way. Specter's already doing better with independents than most Democrats are across the country, trailing by only three points. If he can convince those folks he's a lesser evil than Toomey he might be able to buck the national trends. It certainly appears this will be one of the tightest and most expensive races in the country.
Full results here
50% of voters in the state give Obama poor marks while 46% think he's doing a good job. 76% of Democrats like the job he's doing but only 12% of Republicans do, and independents are split against him by a 52/42 margin as well.
With voters who like the job Obama is doing Specter leads the Senate race 79-8. But with voters who are unhappy with Obama Toomey has the 81-10 advantage. Given those numbers it seems a good bet that if Obama's approval was still in positive territory Specter would be leading the race.
Specter does have very bad approval numbers, as 52% of voters disapprove of him to just 34% who like how he's doing. Republicans don't like him any more than they like Barack Obama- 12% approve of him while 78% disapprove. The biggest thing hurting his numbers though is a lack on enthusiasm for him from his own party- just 53% of Democrats give him good marks while 30% disapprove.
A year after his party switch it's clear that move made Republicans dislike him more than it made Democrats like him. But he's still competitive in the horse race despite his atrocious approval because most of those Democrats who don't approve of him will still vote for him in the fall if he's the party nominee.
Toomey leads Joe Sestak by a slightly larger margin, 42-36. Sestak and Toomey are both blank slates to most voters in the state- 65% have no opinion of Sestak and 58% have no opinion of Toomey.
The issue of health care is not doing Democrats in Pennsylvania any favors. 49% of voters are opposed to the bill that was passed last month with only 42% supportive. And an equal 49% express support for repealing the bill to 44% who are opposed to such a move.
This race is basically a toss up at this point. The big question is whether this represents the low water mark for Democrats in this election cycle. There are a couple of paths to reelection for Specter despite his unpopularity. If Obama's numbers go back up he'll more than likely bring Specter along for the ride.
And if that doesn't happen Specter still has an opportunity to define Toomey to the 58% of voters who have no opinion of him right now in a very negative way. Specter's already doing better with independents than most Democrats are across the country, trailing by only three points. If he can convince those folks he's a lesser evil than Toomey he might be able to buck the national trends. It certainly appears this will be one of the tightest and most expensive races in the country.
Full results here
Monday, April 5, 2010
Previewing Tomorrow's Polls
We've got Illinois and Pennsylvania on deck this week, starting tomorrow with Senate numbers.
The money finding in Illinois? 36% of Democrats are undecided while only 16% of Republicans are. That would seem to be an indication Democratic voters just don't know what to think with all of the controversy related to Alexi Giannoulias swirling around right now. If those folks come home the party will probably win but if they don't Mark Kirk has a really good chance.
Pennsylvania's another state where it appears to be all about Obama right now. Arlen Specter's up 71 with folks who approve of him. Pat Toomey's up 71 with folks who disapprove of him. Very simply that means if Obama's approval is in positive territory there Specter's winning right now and if his approval is in negative territory there Toomey's winning right now. Which is it? Answers coming tomorrow.
The money finding in Illinois? 36% of Democrats are undecided while only 16% of Republicans are. That would seem to be an indication Democratic voters just don't know what to think with all of the controversy related to Alexi Giannoulias swirling around right now. If those folks come home the party will probably win but if they don't Mark Kirk has a really good chance.
Pennsylvania's another state where it appears to be all about Obama right now. Arlen Specter's up 71 with folks who approve of him. Pat Toomey's up 71 with folks who disapprove of him. Very simply that means if Obama's approval is in positive territory there Specter's winning right now and if his approval is in negative territory there Toomey's winning right now. Which is it? Answers coming tomorrow.
That Time of the Month...
It's time for our monthly national and North Carolina polls so that means we're taking your suggestions on three things:
-Who should we include as the 4th Republican tested along with Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin, and Mitt Romney in our 2012 poll? We've already looked at Ron Paul, John Thune, Tim Pawlenty, Mitch Daniels, and David Petraeus so they're all out. Beyond that we're open to your nominations for the next 24 hours and we'll choose finalists and put it to a vote starting tomorrow. Personally I don't understand the point in looking at folks like Thune and Daniels who have zero national name recognition- I can pretty much tell you they're going to be down 12 to Obama with 70% or more of the country saying they have no opinion of them. But if someone like that wins, that's who we'll poll.
-Always looking for creative questions to ask on these national polls- not the stuff that every other pollster in the country is asking. What should we take a look at that there's not much or any data out there on?
-It's also North Carolina week. Anything beyond the basic stuff we do on every poll that we should be looking at?
-Who should we include as the 4th Republican tested along with Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin, and Mitt Romney in our 2012 poll? We've already looked at Ron Paul, John Thune, Tim Pawlenty, Mitch Daniels, and David Petraeus so they're all out. Beyond that we're open to your nominations for the next 24 hours and we'll choose finalists and put it to a vote starting tomorrow. Personally I don't understand the point in looking at folks like Thune and Daniels who have zero national name recognition- I can pretty much tell you they're going to be down 12 to Obama with 70% or more of the country saying they have no opinion of them. But if someone like that wins, that's who we'll poll.
-Always looking for creative questions to ask on these national polls- not the stuff that every other pollster in the country is asking. What should we take a look at that there's not much or any data out there on?
-It's also North Carolina week. Anything beyond the basic stuff we do on every poll that we should be looking at?
Obama Approval Shifts
I was a little surprised when we polled Alabama last week to find that Barack Obama's approval rating there was slightly higher than the percentage of the vote he received in the state, the first place where we'd found that to be the case in months. There's an easy explanation though- Obama's approval rating is falling slower in states with heavy black populations because those voters are much more likely to have stuck with him than whites.
When Obama's national approval rating peaked in our polling last May he had the support of 91% of African Americans and 48% of whites. In our poll last month he was still at 90% with blacks but had seen a decline to only 37% with whites.
Given that it's no surprise that 6 of the 8 states we've polled since December where Obama's seen the smallest decrease from his 2008 performance had black populations above the national average- Alabama, South Carolina, Arkansas, North Carolina, Georgia, and Florida. The other two were Alaska and South Dakota.
The states where Obama's seen the largest decline in his support- New Mexico, Nevada, Ohio, Texas, and Wisconsin- all have average or below average black populations.
Here's the full data:
When Obama's national approval rating peaked in our polling last May he had the support of 91% of African Americans and 48% of whites. In our poll last month he was still at 90% with blacks but had seen a decline to only 37% with whites.
Given that it's no surprise that 6 of the 8 states we've polled since December where Obama's seen the smallest decrease from his 2008 performance had black populations above the national average- Alabama, South Carolina, Arkansas, North Carolina, Georgia, and Florida. The other two were Alaska and South Dakota.
The states where Obama's seen the largest decline in his support- New Mexico, Nevada, Ohio, Texas, and Wisconsin- all have average or below average black populations.
Here's the full data:
| State | Approval | 2008 Vote | Difference | Black Pop. |
| | 42 | 39 | +3 | 26 |
| | 46 | 45 | +1 | 29 |
| | 38 | 39 | -1 | 16 |
| | 37 | 38 | -1 | 4 |
| | 46 | 50 | -4 | 22 |
| | 43 | 47 | -4 | 30 |
| | 41 | 45 | -4 | 1 |
| | 46 | 51 | -5 | 16 |
| | 43 | 49 | -6 | 12 |
| | 35 | 41 | -6 | 8 |
| | 54 | 61 | -7 | 10 |
| | 47 | 54 | -7 | 4 |
| | 46 | 56 | -10 | 6 |
| | 33 | 44 | -11 | 12 |
| | 40 | 51 | -11 | 12 |
| | 44 | 55 | -11 | 8 |
| | 45 | 57 | -12 | 3 |
Friday, April 2, 2010
Little Change in the NC Political Landscape
Although plenty has happened in politics both nationally and in North Carolina over the last six months, there's been virtually no change in the major indicators that will predict what happens in this fall's elections.
In September Republicans had a 43-42 lead on the generic legislative ballot. In March it was a 42-42 tie. The GOP continues to have its best chance since 1994 of reclaiming control of the General Assembly, thanks in particular to a continual strong advantage with independents. But Democrats are looking better here than they are in a lot of other states and still maintain a large degree of support.
Feelings about Barack Obama will go a long way this fall toward determining both Richard Burr's fate and the balance of power in Raleigh, and his numbers are pretty static as well. In September his approval rating was 45% and now it's 46%. The prospects of North Carolina Democrats for this year took a nosedive over the course of last summer but the bleeding stopped in the fall and things have remained pretty much unchanged since then.
In North Carolina's premier race for this year, Richard Burr's approval rating stood at 38% in September and is pretty much unchanged now at 35%. Burr's fate may end up being determined more by Obama's approval numbers than his own. If the majority of North Carolina voters continue to disapprove of the President, it's unlikely the state is going to elect a Democratic Senator this year. But if Obama gets back in positive territory or can just break even the prospects of the eventual Democratic nominee will be pretty good.
Stability is the story in the North Carolina political landscape right now.
In September Republicans had a 43-42 lead on the generic legislative ballot. In March it was a 42-42 tie. The GOP continues to have its best chance since 1994 of reclaiming control of the General Assembly, thanks in particular to a continual strong advantage with independents. But Democrats are looking better here than they are in a lot of other states and still maintain a large degree of support.
Feelings about Barack Obama will go a long way this fall toward determining both Richard Burr's fate and the balance of power in Raleigh, and his numbers are pretty static as well. In September his approval rating was 45% and now it's 46%. The prospects of North Carolina Democrats for this year took a nosedive over the course of last summer but the bleeding stopped in the fall and things have remained pretty much unchanged since then.
In North Carolina's premier race for this year, Richard Burr's approval rating stood at 38% in September and is pretty much unchanged now at 35%. Burr's fate may end up being determined more by Obama's approval numbers than his own. If the majority of North Carolina voters continue to disapprove of the President, it's unlikely the state is going to elect a Democratic Senator this year. But if Obama gets back in positive territory or can just break even the prospects of the eventual Democratic nominee will be pretty good.
Stability is the story in the North Carolina political landscape right now.
Thursday, April 1, 2010
Indistinguishable Senate Delegations
One of the things I found interesting about our Alabama poll was how indistinguishable Jeff Sessions and Richard Shelby's approval numbers are. Shelby's at a positive 44/34 spread and Sessions is at 41/34. It's really not that surprising though- unless you are an avid follower of the Senate, what is the difference between Sessions and Shelby? They're both conservative Republicans who don't draw a whole lot of national media attention.
Alabama's one of five states we've polled in the last six months where voters felt pretty much the same way about both of their Senators. The others are:
-New Mexico, where Jeff Bingaman and Tom Udall's numbers are literally identical at 48/36 each.
-Maine, where Olympia Snowe's at 51/36 and Susan Collins is at 48/30.
-Georgia, where Saxby Chambliss is at 38/43 and Johnny Isaskon's at 36/38
-New Jersey, where Frank Lautenberg's at 36/45 and Bob Menendez is at 34/45.
Alabama's one of five states we've polled in the last six months where voters felt pretty much the same way about both of their Senators. The others are:
-New Mexico, where Jeff Bingaman and Tom Udall's numbers are literally identical at 48/36 each.
-Maine, where Olympia Snowe's at 51/36 and Susan Collins is at 48/30.
-Georgia, where Saxby Chambliss is at 38/43 and Johnny Isaskon's at 36/38
-New Jersey, where Frank Lautenberg's at 36/45 and Bob Menendez is at 34/45.
Missouri Politician Approval Ratings
-The health care debate seems to have taken a serious toll on Claire McCaskill's approval ratings. 38% of voters in the state say they like the job she's doing while 51% disapprove. The key finding- 85% of folks who oppose the health care bill passed last week disapprove of McCaskill. That's an indication that feelings about the bill and feelings about McCaskill have become practically one and the same.
Potential 2012 McCaskill opponent Jim Talent is viewed favorably by 38% of voters in the state while 32% see him unfavorably. 30% have no opinion about him, a reminder about how quickly politicians can be forgotten once they're out of the public eye.
It's a good thing for McCaskill that she's not up for reelection this year but considering this may be somewhat of a low point for Democrats I'm not sure these numbers are worth panicking over yet. But clearly McCaskill is likely to have a tough fight for reelection, and Talent/McCaskill pt. 2 might be just as close as the first time.
-There's a lot of ambivalence toward Jay Nixon but that's somewhat of a victory in a time when voters are not very high on politicians. 37% of voters approve of him, 29% disapprove, and 34% aren't sure. Nixon is the only big state Governor (one with more than 10 electoral votes) that we've found with a positive approval rating so far in 2010.
The early Republican front runner to take on Nixon in 2012, Lieutenant Governor Peter Kinder, is a blank slate to most Missourians. 60% of voters have no opinion about him with 22% seeing him favorably and 18% unfavorably. It's way too early to make a guess at how a Nixon/Kinder contest might play out.
-Kit Bond's approval rating is 44% with 35% of voters disapproving of him. 18 months ago those seemed like mediocre numbers, and that may have played some role in Bond's decision not to seek reelection. Now those are a good deal above what we're finding for the average Senator. Given the fact that Roy Blunt is ahead of Robin Carnahan with personal favorability numbers that are considerably inferior to those of Bond, it seems like a safe bet that he would have been reelected had he chosen to make another run. But that's elementary at this point.
Full results here
Potential 2012 McCaskill opponent Jim Talent is viewed favorably by 38% of voters in the state while 32% see him unfavorably. 30% have no opinion about him, a reminder about how quickly politicians can be forgotten once they're out of the public eye.
It's a good thing for McCaskill that she's not up for reelection this year but considering this may be somewhat of a low point for Democrats I'm not sure these numbers are worth panicking over yet. But clearly McCaskill is likely to have a tough fight for reelection, and Talent/McCaskill pt. 2 might be just as close as the first time.
-There's a lot of ambivalence toward Jay Nixon but that's somewhat of a victory in a time when voters are not very high on politicians. 37% of voters approve of him, 29% disapprove, and 34% aren't sure. Nixon is the only big state Governor (one with more than 10 electoral votes) that we've found with a positive approval rating so far in 2010.
The early Republican front runner to take on Nixon in 2012, Lieutenant Governor Peter Kinder, is a blank slate to most Missourians. 60% of voters have no opinion about him with 22% seeing him favorably and 18% unfavorably. It's way too early to make a guess at how a Nixon/Kinder contest might play out.
-Kit Bond's approval rating is 44% with 35% of voters disapproving of him. 18 months ago those seemed like mediocre numbers, and that may have played some role in Bond's decision not to seek reelection. Now those are a good deal above what we're finding for the average Senator. Given the fact that Roy Blunt is ahead of Robin Carnahan with personal favorability numbers that are considerably inferior to those of Bond, it seems like a safe bet that he would have been reelected had he chosen to make another run. But that's elementary at this point.
Full results here
Shelby Safe
It shouldn't come as much of a surprise in what's looking like a strong year for Republicans, but Alabama Senator Richard Shelby appears to be safe for reelection this fall.
55% of voters in the state say they'll vote for Shelby compared to just 37% who are inclined to vote Democratic. Shelby has a 54-29 advantage among independents and wins 93% of the Republican vote.
Shelby would probably be safe under any circumstances, but GOP prospects in Alabama this year are likely to be buoyed by Barack Obama's unpopularity in the state. Only 42% of voters approve of the job he's doing to 55% giving him bad marks. That actually makes this a rare state where Obama's popularity now is about the same as it was on election day in 2008. That's because Alabama has a heavy black population and his popularity with them has remained pretty steady even as it's gone downhill with whites. 96% of African Americans but only 23% of whites think Obama's doing a good job.
Opposition to the health care bill is strong, as is support for repealing it. 56% of voters say they don't like the bill that was passed last week to only 39% who express approval of it. 54% of voters think it should be repealed with 40% opposed.
Shelby and Jeff Sessions have virtually identical approval numbers. Shelby's approval spread is 44/34 and Sessions' is 41/34. Under normal circumstances those would be pretty mediocre, but in a political climate when voters are down on politicians to an unusual extent those represent above average ratings for Senators.
Full results here
55% of voters in the state say they'll vote for Shelby compared to just 37% who are inclined to vote Democratic. Shelby has a 54-29 advantage among independents and wins 93% of the Republican vote.
Shelby would probably be safe under any circumstances, but GOP prospects in Alabama this year are likely to be buoyed by Barack Obama's unpopularity in the state. Only 42% of voters approve of the job he's doing to 55% giving him bad marks. That actually makes this a rare state where Obama's popularity now is about the same as it was on election day in 2008. That's because Alabama has a heavy black population and his popularity with them has remained pretty steady even as it's gone downhill with whites. 96% of African Americans but only 23% of whites think Obama's doing a good job.
Opposition to the health care bill is strong, as is support for repealing it. 56% of voters say they don't like the bill that was passed last week to only 39% who express approval of it. 54% of voters think it should be repealed with 40% opposed.
Shelby and Jeff Sessions have virtually identical approval numbers. Shelby's approval spread is 44/34 and Sessions' is 41/34. Under normal circumstances those would be pretty mediocre, but in a political climate when voters are down on politicians to an unusual extent those represent above average ratings for Senators.
Full results here
Burr and Repeal
It's safe to say that Richard Burr's backing down on full repeal of the health care bill is not going to play well with the Republican base in North Carolina.
Our polling since the bill passed has found that almost 90% of voters who were opposed to it now want to see it repealed. Given that 84% of North Carolina Republicans said they were opposed to the bill on our last poll, it's a safe bet that at least 75% of them support repeal.
None of the guys running against Burr have had a real strong angle for taking votes from him, but he's given them some room now to 'out conservative' him (which he said in February was impossible) by being unambiguously supportive of full repeal. They still aren't likely to get much traction without some serious money behind that message, but given the broad interest in this issue on the right perhaps one of them could use this to good effect for fundraising. Receiving anything less than 75% of the primary vote would raise some serious doubts about the enthusiasm of the Republican base for Burr.
Our polling since the bill passed has found that almost 90% of voters who were opposed to it now want to see it repealed. Given that 84% of North Carolina Republicans said they were opposed to the bill on our last poll, it's a safe bet that at least 75% of them support repeal.
None of the guys running against Burr have had a real strong angle for taking votes from him, but he's given them some room now to 'out conservative' him (which he said in February was impossible) by being unambiguously supportive of full repeal. They still aren't likely to get much traction without some serious money behind that message, but given the broad interest in this issue on the right perhaps one of them could use this to good effect for fundraising. Receiving anything less than 75% of the primary vote would raise some serious doubts about the enthusiasm of the Republican base for Burr.
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