Friday, April 2, 2010

Little Change in the NC Political Landscape

Although plenty has happened in politics both nationally and in North Carolina over the last six months, there's been virtually no change in the major indicators that will predict what happens in this fall's elections.

In September Republicans had a 43-42 lead on the generic legislative ballot. In March it was a 42-42 tie. The GOP continues to have its best chance since 1994 of reclaiming control of the General Assembly, thanks in particular to a continual strong advantage with independents. But Democrats are looking better here than they are in a lot of other states and still maintain a large degree of support.

Feelings about Barack Obama will go a long way this fall toward determining both Richard Burr's fate and the balance of power in Raleigh, and his numbers are pretty static as well. In September his approval rating was 45% and now it's 46%. The prospects of North Carolina Democrats for this year took a nosedive over the course of last summer but the bleeding stopped in the fall and things have remained pretty much unchanged since then.

In North Carolina's premier race for this year, Richard Burr's approval rating stood at 38% in September and is pretty much unchanged now at 35%. Burr's fate may end up being determined more by Obama's approval numbers than his own. If the majority of North Carolina voters continue to disapprove of the President, it's unlikely the state is going to elect a Democratic Senator this year. But if Obama gets back in positive territory or can just break even the prospects of the eventual Democratic nominee will be pretty good.

Stability is the story in the North Carolina political landscape right now.


Brandon K said...

Any chance you guys can poll the IN Senate Primary? It's only a month away and there has been zero public polling on it.

Anonymous said...

Is not today's issue but I wish comment about interesting places for new polls.

As democrat, last days I get interested in TN-Gov race, and since much before about AZ-Gov race.

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