If our Pennsylvania poll today showing Barack Obama leading the state is correct and holds true through the primary, it seems a safe bet that the Democratic nomination process will wrap up the next day. That leads to the question of what impact that would have on the primary in North Carolina.
My guess is that we would still get very high turnout. With all of the energy that will have already gone into registering people to vote, and getting out information about when and where to vote, I don't think that many folks will decide to just stay at home because of the nomination contest wrapping up.
Also, given the passion of Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton's supporters, they may want to get out and vote for their candidates regardless of the race's status. It's not like the Presidential race will be taken off the ballot.
And I know Bev Perdue, Richard Moore, Fred Smith, Pat McCrory, and any other candidates running television ads would sure be happy about the air space opening back up.
Wednesday, April 2, 2008
Assessing the Runoffs
Based on our most recent polls, if the undecideds were distributed in the same proportion as current candidate support we would only have three statewide runoffs in North Carolina this year.
One would be in the Democratic race for Labor Commissioner. Distributing the undecideds would give John Brooks 27%, Mary Fant Donnan 27%, Ty Richardson 24%, and Robin Anderson 22%. These candidates are all pretty evenly matched and no one is anywhere close to 40%. I expect this race really will see a runoff.
Another is the Republican race for Lieutenant Governor. Right now Greg Dority would have 37%, Robert Pittenger would have 33%, Jim Snyder would have 20%, and Tim Cook would have 11%. I do not expect to see a runoff in this race. Pittenger is well funded but has held back on his money so far. Once he starts spending it he figures to earn a victory with over 40%.
The third is the Democratic contest for Lieutenant Governor. Based on our poll last week Walter Dalton would be at 33%, Dan Besse at 23%, Pat Smathers at 23%, and Hampton Dellinger at 20%. I imagine that once the candidates start really spending their money in this race we'll see some separation but this one is probably headed for a runoff as well.
There are three other races where distributing the undecideds would put the current leader just over 40%. I think two of those are real runoff possibilities.
In the Democratic Treasurer's race, Janet Cowell would be at 43% followed by David Young at 37%, and Michael Weisel at 20%. Weisel has lagged behind in all of our polling, but he does have a considerable war chest. If he turns it into more of a three way tie, it could head to a runoff. Of course in her senate campaign four years ago many folks thought Cowell was headed for one and she pulled off quite an impressive performance with around 50% of the vote.
In the Democratic Senate race Kay Hagan is projecting to 45% followed by Jim Neal at 26%, Marcus Williams at 14%, Duskin Lassiter at 10%, and Howard Staley at 5%. The 19 point margin between Hagan and Neal seems about right to me, especially if Hagan does a pretty strong media buy and Neal doesn't. I don't think Williams, Lassiter, and Staley will really end up combining for 29% of the vote, and my guess is Hagan ends up somewhere in the 50-60 range while Neal finishes somewhere in the 30-40 range.
Finally there is the Republican race for Superintendent. Right now Richard Morgan would have 45%, followed by Eric Smith with 29% and Joe Johnson at 26%. I imagine Morgan will win without a runoff- unless the Pope machine decides to bring him down. A negative independent expenditure would certainly be a new thing for a Superintendent primary but those folks sure don't like Morgan.
We will have at least a bit of a statewide election on June 24th, but right now it doesn't look like the ballot will be very full.
One would be in the Democratic race for Labor Commissioner. Distributing the undecideds would give John Brooks 27%, Mary Fant Donnan 27%, Ty Richardson 24%, and Robin Anderson 22%. These candidates are all pretty evenly matched and no one is anywhere close to 40%. I expect this race really will see a runoff.
Another is the Republican race for Lieutenant Governor. Right now Greg Dority would have 37%, Robert Pittenger would have 33%, Jim Snyder would have 20%, and Tim Cook would have 11%. I do not expect to see a runoff in this race. Pittenger is well funded but has held back on his money so far. Once he starts spending it he figures to earn a victory with over 40%.
The third is the Democratic contest for Lieutenant Governor. Based on our poll last week Walter Dalton would be at 33%, Dan Besse at 23%, Pat Smathers at 23%, and Hampton Dellinger at 20%. I imagine that once the candidates start really spending their money in this race we'll see some separation but this one is probably headed for a runoff as well.
There are three other races where distributing the undecideds would put the current leader just over 40%. I think two of those are real runoff possibilities.
In the Democratic Treasurer's race, Janet Cowell would be at 43% followed by David Young at 37%, and Michael Weisel at 20%. Weisel has lagged behind in all of our polling, but he does have a considerable war chest. If he turns it into more of a three way tie, it could head to a runoff. Of course in her senate campaign four years ago many folks thought Cowell was headed for one and she pulled off quite an impressive performance with around 50% of the vote.
In the Democratic Senate race Kay Hagan is projecting to 45% followed by Jim Neal at 26%, Marcus Williams at 14%, Duskin Lassiter at 10%, and Howard Staley at 5%. The 19 point margin between Hagan and Neal seems about right to me, especially if Hagan does a pretty strong media buy and Neal doesn't. I don't think Williams, Lassiter, and Staley will really end up combining for 29% of the vote, and my guess is Hagan ends up somewhere in the 50-60 range while Neal finishes somewhere in the 30-40 range.
Finally there is the Republican race for Superintendent. Right now Richard Morgan would have 45%, followed by Eric Smith with 29% and Joe Johnson at 26%. I imagine Morgan will win without a runoff- unless the Pope machine decides to bring him down. A negative independent expenditure would certainly be a new thing for a Superintendent primary but those folks sure don't like Morgan.
We will have at least a bit of a statewide election on June 24th, but right now it doesn't look like the ballot will be very full.
Obama takes the lead in Pennsylvania
Barack Obama 45
Hillary Clinton 43
Barack Obama has taken the lead in Pennsylvania, a remarkable turnaround after trailing Hillary Clinton by 26 points in a PPP poll in the state just two and a half weeks ago.
Obama's steep rise could be a reflection of a growing sense among Democratic voters that a continued divisive nomination process will hurt the party's chances of defeating John McCain this fall. An Obama upset in Pennsylvania would be virtually certain to force Clinton out of the race.
Obama has his customary large advantage with black voters (75-17) and is keeping it relatively competitive with white voters (49-38)
He leads across all age groups except senior citizens and balances Clinton's 10 point lead with women with his own 15 point lead with men.
Full results here.
Hillary Clinton 43
Barack Obama has taken the lead in Pennsylvania, a remarkable turnaround after trailing Hillary Clinton by 26 points in a PPP poll in the state just two and a half weeks ago.
Obama's steep rise could be a reflection of a growing sense among Democratic voters that a continued divisive nomination process will hurt the party's chances of defeating John McCain this fall. An Obama upset in Pennsylvania would be virtually certain to force Clinton out of the race.
Obama has his customary large advantage with black voters (75-17) and is keeping it relatively competitive with white voters (49-38)
He leads across all age groups except senior citizens and balances Clinton's 10 point lead with women with his own 15 point lead with men.
Full results here.
Tuesday, April 1, 2008
Movement in the Governors Race
Over at Talking about Politics, Gary Pearce says we have 'everybody confused' with the constant movement in our recent Gubernatorial polls.
I feel pretty good about all four polls we've put out in the last month on the race except for the one that showed Bev Perdue leading by 27 points. I do think she had a lead in the lower 20s at that point, which was in the middle of a period where she was on the air and Richard Moore wasn't, but I doubt it was really 27.
Why are the numbers moving so wildly? It's because voters are getting a lot of exposure to the race right now but they don't have strong feelings about the candidates one way or the other. In our most recent poll 80% of respondents said they had seen television ads for one of the candidates in the last week. 67% said they'd seen ads for both. So voters are seeing a lot of Moore and Perdue.
At the same time, neither of them has particularly solid support. Our poll last week showed that 50% of likely voters said they might change their minds about who to vote for between now and the election.
The combination of high exposure but low passion levels about the candidates I think makes poll respondents entirely likely to say they support one person one week and then say they support the other person the next week. In the most recent weeks they've each been running a variety of different ads and I think that's probably causing some portion of the electorate to move between them based on who had the most compelling message they had last seen.
It's interesting to note that while the Governor's race moved quite a bit between our poll on March 3rd and our poll on March 30th, the numbers in other state races on the ballot remained almost identical. So it's not like all of our figures are all over the place.
I would not be surprised to see the polling for this race remain somewhat volatile for the last five weeks of the campaign. The circumstances surrounding it are just a recipe for that.
I feel pretty good about all four polls we've put out in the last month on the race except for the one that showed Bev Perdue leading by 27 points. I do think she had a lead in the lower 20s at that point, which was in the middle of a period where she was on the air and Richard Moore wasn't, but I doubt it was really 27.
Why are the numbers moving so wildly? It's because voters are getting a lot of exposure to the race right now but they don't have strong feelings about the candidates one way or the other. In our most recent poll 80% of respondents said they had seen television ads for one of the candidates in the last week. 67% said they'd seen ads for both. So voters are seeing a lot of Moore and Perdue.
At the same time, neither of them has particularly solid support. Our poll last week showed that 50% of likely voters said they might change their minds about who to vote for between now and the election.
The combination of high exposure but low passion levels about the candidates I think makes poll respondents entirely likely to say they support one person one week and then say they support the other person the next week. In the most recent weeks they've each been running a variety of different ads and I think that's probably causing some portion of the electorate to move between them based on who had the most compelling message they had last seen.
It's interesting to note that while the Governor's race moved quite a bit between our poll on March 3rd and our poll on March 30th, the numbers in other state races on the ballot remained almost identical. So it's not like all of our figures are all over the place.
I would not be surprised to see the polling for this race remain somewhat volatile for the last five weeks of the campaign. The circumstances surrounding it are just a recipe for that.
Republican Tracking Poll: the Other Stuff
Elizabeth Dole continues to lead Pete DiLauro 83-10.
His past service as House Speaker is only giving Richard Morgan a small lead in the race for Superintendent. He has 17% to 11% for Eric Smith and 10% for Joe Johnson.
It's becoming clear that Greg Dority and Robert Pittenger are ahead of the field for Lieutenant Governor. Dority currently leads with 17% followed by Pittenger at 15%, with Jim Snyder and Tim Cook further behind with 9% and 5% respectively.
Full results here.
His past service as House Speaker is only giving Richard Morgan a small lead in the race for Superintendent. He has 17% to 11% for Eric Smith and 10% for Joe Johnson.
It's becoming clear that Greg Dority and Robert Pittenger are ahead of the field for Lieutenant Governor. Dority currently leads with 17% followed by Pittenger at 15%, with Jim Snyder and Tim Cook further behind with 9% and 5% respectively.
Full results here.
Republican Tracking Poll: Governor
Pat McCrory 35
Fred Smith 23
Bill Graham 7
Bob Orr 7
Elbie Powers 1
Pat McCrory is the only Republican candidate running an aggressive media campaign right now, and that's allowing him to make significant gains in the polls.
The other contenders will need to step up their campaigns soon to have any chance with the primary just five weeks away.
It is curious that Bill Graham was willing to spend thousands out of his own pocket on issue based media campaigns over the last couple years but has not made the same investment yet in his gubernatorial campaign.
Likewise for Fred Smith who made a huge outlay for barbecue but has had a pretty limited tv run.
With McCrory running perilously close to that magic 40% to avoid a runoff the other GOP contenders need to start attacking and doing more to reach the masses than they are doing now if they want to have any chance.
McCrory is now polling over 20% in all but one region of the state, an indication that he's getting his name out there beyond Charlotte.
Full results here.
Fred Smith 23
Bill Graham 7
Bob Orr 7
Elbie Powers 1
Pat McCrory is the only Republican candidate running an aggressive media campaign right now, and that's allowing him to make significant gains in the polls.
The other contenders will need to step up their campaigns soon to have any chance with the primary just five weeks away.
It is curious that Bill Graham was willing to spend thousands out of his own pocket on issue based media campaigns over the last couple years but has not made the same investment yet in his gubernatorial campaign.
Likewise for Fred Smith who made a huge outlay for barbecue but has had a pretty limited tv run.
With McCrory running perilously close to that magic 40% to avoid a runoff the other GOP contenders need to start attacking and doing more to reach the masses than they are doing now if they want to have any chance.
McCrory is now polling over 20% in all but one region of the state, an indication that he's getting his name out there beyond Charlotte.
Full results here.
Monday, March 31, 2008
Where has the Perdue lead gone?
Bev Perdue led Richard Moore by 27 points four weeks ago. Now she leads by just one. Why?
1) The biggest single reason is that her support was not that solid to begin with. But neither is Moore's. Our poll last week showed that 51% of her supporters and 46% of his supporters could change their minds between now and the election. Neither candidate has a particularly strong base of passionate supporters like you might see in the Presidential race, and that means just about anything could happen between now and May 6th depending on who runs the stronger campaign, which leads to #2...
2) Over the last month the Moore campaign has done a better job than the Perdue campaign (just as the Perdue camp did a much better job in January and February.) Moore relaunched his efforts with positive ads focused on populist issues, then effectively attacked Perdue on that same set of things. The Perdue campaign has responded, but the message has not been as strong or as well presented as Moore's.
The bottom line? This is reminding me of the UNC basketball game Saturday night. In the first half UNC built up a solid lead. In the first ten minutes of the second half Louisville came out and played phenomenally, UNC couldn't match it, and the entire lead it had taken the Heels 20 minutes to build up was erased in 10 minutes.
The Governor's race, like the basketball game, is back at square one with the last quarter to go and the campaign that works the smartest and has the most heart is going to pull it out. And since neither outfit has Tyler Hansbrough to step it up, it is wide open.
1) The biggest single reason is that her support was not that solid to begin with. But neither is Moore's. Our poll last week showed that 51% of her supporters and 46% of his supporters could change their minds between now and the election. Neither candidate has a particularly strong base of passionate supporters like you might see in the Presidential race, and that means just about anything could happen between now and May 6th depending on who runs the stronger campaign, which leads to #2...
2) Over the last month the Moore campaign has done a better job than the Perdue campaign (just as the Perdue camp did a much better job in January and February.) Moore relaunched his efforts with positive ads focused on populist issues, then effectively attacked Perdue on that same set of things. The Perdue campaign has responded, but the message has not been as strong or as well presented as Moore's.
The bottom line? This is reminding me of the UNC basketball game Saturday night. In the first half UNC built up a solid lead. In the first ten minutes of the second half Louisville came out and played phenomenally, UNC couldn't match it, and the entire lead it had taken the Heels 20 minutes to build up was erased in 10 minutes.
The Governor's race, like the basketball game, is back at square one with the last quarter to go and the campaign that works the smartest and has the most heart is going to pull it out. And since neither outfit has Tyler Hansbrough to step it up, it is wide open.
Republican Universe Change
I heard from several Republican operatives over the last week that they didn't think 2006 general election voters were the right extension of our universe on their side but that adding in 2000 and 2002 primary voters in addition to those from 2004 and 2006 would be a good change.
So that's who we called for tomorrow's Republican poll.
So that's who we called for tomorrow's Republican poll.
Democratic Tracking Poll: Everything Else
US Senate:
Kay Hagan 19
Jim Neal 11
Marcus Williams 6
Duskin Lassiter 4
Howard Staley 2
Our polling in this race has been remarkably consistent. There is not likely to be much movement until the candidates start really spending their money.
Treasurer:
Janet Cowell 15
David Young 13
Michael Weisel 7
This is another one that has shown the same basic picture since we started polling it last fall. Cowell does well in the Triangle, Young does well in the Mountains, everything else is pretty much a wash.
Superintendent:
June Atkinson 30
Eddie Davis 17
This race is actually getting a little closer. Davis has run a pretty active campaign and is now leading among black voters.
Auditor:
Beth Wood 24
Fred Aikens 17
Insurance Commissioner:
Wayne Goodwin 18
David Smith 16
Labor Commissioner:
John Brooks 11
Mary Fant Donnan 11
Ty Richardson 10
Robin Anderson 9
Full results here.
Kay Hagan 19
Jim Neal 11
Marcus Williams 6
Duskin Lassiter 4
Howard Staley 2
Our polling in this race has been remarkably consistent. There is not likely to be much movement until the candidates start really spending their money.
Treasurer:
Janet Cowell 15
David Young 13
Michael Weisel 7
This is another one that has shown the same basic picture since we started polling it last fall. Cowell does well in the Triangle, Young does well in the Mountains, everything else is pretty much a wash.
Superintendent:
June Atkinson 30
Eddie Davis 17
This race is actually getting a little closer. Davis has run a pretty active campaign and is now leading among black voters.
Auditor:
Beth Wood 24
Fred Aikens 17
Insurance Commissioner:
Wayne Goodwin 18
David Smith 16
Labor Commissioner:
John Brooks 11
Mary Fant Donnan 11
Ty Richardson 10
Robin Anderson 9
Full results here.
Democratic Tracking Poll: Governor
Bev Perdue 38 Richard Moore 37 Dennis Nielsen 6
Richard Moore's tv ads of late have been much more effective than Bev Perdue's, and that's fueled a rise that has now pretty much wiped out her once significant lead.
67% of those surveyed said they had seen ads for both Moore and Perdue in the last week, and within that group Moore has a 45-39 advantage. Perdue is hanging on to the lead by leading 28-16 with respondents who hadn't seen any ads. She is also doing better (65-13) than Moore (48-26) among those polled who had only seen ads for one of the candidates.
Interestingly Dennis Nielsen's 6% standing is his best of the election cycle so far and possibly an indication that some voters disappointed in the negative ads that have cropped up over the last few weeks are saying no to both Moore and Perdue.
Perdue's support among black voters has dropped to 39-34 after being in double digits for most of the campaign, and Moore has taken a 41-36 lead with white voters.
This should be quite a contest for the final five weeks.
Full results here
Richard Moore's tv ads of late have been much more effective than Bev Perdue's, and that's fueled a rise that has now pretty much wiped out her once significant lead.
67% of those surveyed said they had seen ads for both Moore and Perdue in the last week, and within that group Moore has a 45-39 advantage. Perdue is hanging on to the lead by leading 28-16 with respondents who hadn't seen any ads. She is also doing better (65-13) than Moore (48-26) among those polled who had only seen ads for one of the candidates.
Interestingly Dennis Nielsen's 6% standing is his best of the election cycle so far and possibly an indication that some voters disappointed in the negative ads that have cropped up over the last few weeks are saying no to both Moore and Perdue.
Perdue's support among black voters has dropped to 39-34 after being in double digits for most of the campaign, and Moore has taken a 41-36 lead with white voters.
This should be quite a contest for the final five weeks.
Full results here
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