As has been the case every time a North Carolina poll is released over the last few months, people are again criticizing the 22% representation of African Americans in today's new Research 2000/Daily Kos poll.
They're doing this because the 2004 exit poll said that 26% of the North Carolina electorate was black. The reality, as I've written before, is that it was actually less than 19% black.
Here are the exact figures, courtesy of the State Board of Elections:
3,552,449 people voted in North Carolina in November 2004.
659,656 of them were black.
Do the math and that comes to an 18.6% African American electorate. That is not my opinion, that is a fact. It is somewhat conceivable the black electorate could go up to 22-23% this year but that is most likely the ceiling unless a whole heck of a lot of white people just stay at home this year. I have no doubt blacks will vote in record numbers but I wouldn't be surprised if everybody else does too, so it would take a lot for the proportion of voters who are black to make a huge leap. A 2-3% increase would still be a big deal but hoping for a 6-7% increase in the proportion is dreaming.
The 2004 North Carolina exit poll was also well off in terms of its gender (too female) and age (too young) distributions. The South Carolina exit poll from 2004 is full of mistakes as well.
Anyway the actual results of today's new poll are pretty ho hum. More confirmation that Kay Hagan has Elizabeth Dole's lead back down to single digits, as PPP and Civitas had previously shown, and that Barack Obama is keeping it close against John McCain.
Friday, August 1, 2008
NC 5 Polling
Last week PPP conducted a survey on behalf of the Roy Carter for Congress campaign. The survey found Virginia Foxx leading 51-41, but there were a number of findings indicating this could end up being a close race:
-Virginia Foxx has only a 45% approval rating with voters in the district, well below the 50% threshold that is considered safe for an incumbent. It is a remarkably low 30% with the independent voters in the district whose votes will be critical if Carter is to win this fall.
-On the issue that matters most to voters in the district, Roy Carter has the edge over Virginia Foxx. 49% of respondents picked the economy as their biggest concern from a list of eight major issues, and among those folks Carter leads Foxx 48-45. If Carter is able to keep the campaign focused on the bread and butter issues that most affect the daily lives of people in the 5th district, he will have the upper hand.
-There are indications that the Republican brand is damaged in the district. Although he received 66% of the vote in the district in both 2000 and 2004, President Bush’s approval rating is just 34%. Just 20% of respondents think that the country is heading in the right direction under the current Republican administration.
-Although trailing, Barack Obama and Bev Perdue are both outpacing recent Democratic performance in the district. Obama trails John McCain by 19 points, a significant improvement on the 33 point losses Al Gore and John Kerry sustained against George W. Bush. Perdue trails Pat McCrory by 8 points here, where Mike Easley lost to Richard Vinroot by 12 in 2000. It’s also worth noting that Carter is polling at a higher level than both Perdue and Obama, an indication that he can differentiate himself from national Democrats, something that will be key to victory in this Republican leaning district.
Our full memo to the Carter campaign here.
-Virginia Foxx has only a 45% approval rating with voters in the district, well below the 50% threshold that is considered safe for an incumbent. It is a remarkably low 30% with the independent voters in the district whose votes will be critical if Carter is to win this fall.
-On the issue that matters most to voters in the district, Roy Carter has the edge over Virginia Foxx. 49% of respondents picked the economy as their biggest concern from a list of eight major issues, and among those folks Carter leads Foxx 48-45. If Carter is able to keep the campaign focused on the bread and butter issues that most affect the daily lives of people in the 5th district, he will have the upper hand.
-There are indications that the Republican brand is damaged in the district. Although he received 66% of the vote in the district in both 2000 and 2004, President Bush’s approval rating is just 34%. Just 20% of respondents think that the country is heading in the right direction under the current Republican administration.
-Although trailing, Barack Obama and Bev Perdue are both outpacing recent Democratic performance in the district. Obama trails John McCain by 19 points, a significant improvement on the 33 point losses Al Gore and John Kerry sustained against George W. Bush. Perdue trails Pat McCrory by 8 points here, where Mike Easley lost to Richard Vinroot by 12 in 2000. It’s also worth noting that Carter is polling at a higher level than both Perdue and Obama, an indication that he can differentiate himself from national Democrats, something that will be key to victory in this Republican leaning district.
Our full memo to the Carter campaign here.
Thursday, July 31, 2008
IVR Polling
Carl Bialik of the Wall Street Journal takes an unusually even handed look (for someone in the national media) at IVR polling.
I sure would like to meet the dog(s) Ann Selzer knows that are capable of going through and answering a whole telephone poll- that's worthy of front page coverage in and of itself!
One nice thing about the story was that a recording of a sample PPP poll was posted on the WSJ website. If you've ever been curious about the voice of our polls, listen here.
I sure would like to meet the dog(s) Ann Selzer knows that are capable of going through and answering a whole telephone poll- that's worthy of front page coverage in and of itself!
One nice thing about the story was that a recording of a sample PPP poll was posted on the WSJ website. If you've ever been curious about the voice of our polls, listen here.
Washington seen as center of corruption
Which of these groups do you think is the most corrupt?
Washington Republicans 43
Washington Democrats 35
Raleigh Democrats 15
Raleigh Republicans 7
When North Carolina voters think about corruption, only 22% of them associate it most with Raleigh. That is a strong indicator of how difficult it will be for Pat McCrory and Republican legislative candidates to win this fall by railing against the culture in Raleigh. Civitas polls in the last two months have shown that many voters don't even know which party is in charge in Raleigh, and that they trust Democrats more than Republicans to bring change to state government.
In 2006 Democrats in North Carolina made gains at the state level despite the specter of Jim Black's issues because voters were much more aware of Republican transgressions at the federal level. It appears that the GOP here will have difficulty dealing with that reality once again. Average North Carolinians just are not that in tune with some of the things that have gone down in Raleigh over the last few years.
If Republicans really want to win in the state this fall they probably need to refocus their message on issues that really impact voters' daily lives.
Full results here.
Washington Republicans 43
Washington Democrats 35
Raleigh Democrats 15
Raleigh Republicans 7
When North Carolina voters think about corruption, only 22% of them associate it most with Raleigh. That is a strong indicator of how difficult it will be for Pat McCrory and Republican legislative candidates to win this fall by railing against the culture in Raleigh. Civitas polls in the last two months have shown that many voters don't even know which party is in charge in Raleigh, and that they trust Democrats more than Republicans to bring change to state government.
In 2006 Democrats in North Carolina made gains at the state level despite the specter of Jim Black's issues because voters were much more aware of Republican transgressions at the federal level. It appears that the GOP here will have difficulty dealing with that reality once again. Average North Carolinians just are not that in tune with some of the things that have gone down in Raleigh over the last few years.
If Republicans really want to win in the state this fall they probably need to refocus their message on issues that really impact voters' daily lives.
Full results here.
Wednesday, July 30, 2008
Council of State Numbers
Auditor:
Beth Wood (D) 46
Les(lie) Merritt (R) 34
Wood has shown a strong lead over Merritt three polls in a row now so I don't think this is a fluke. I find this so curious. Steve Troxler and Cherie Berry are doing fine in the polls so it's not a universal problem with Republicans. Why is an incumbent in a low profile race doing so poorly? If anyone can give me a non 'Democratic talking points' answer I'd really like to hear it. One problem for Merritt is that he's getting only 62% of the Republican vote- is there some reason people in his own party don't care for him?
Lieutenant Governor:
Walter Dalton (D) 40
Robert Pittenger (R) 36
Phillip Rhodes (L) 6
Dalton is still holding onto a small lead. As I've said before, if he can compete money wise with Pittenger spending from his personal fortune, he should be fine.
Treasurer:
Bill Daughtridge (R) 41
Janet Cowell (D) 40
Daughtridge has shown a small lead three months in a row, and once again unusual support for a Republican from his 252 area code seems to be making a difference. He and Cherie Berry are the only Republicans leading there.
Attorney General:
Roy Cooper (D) 50
Bob Crumley (R) 35
Secretary of State:
Elaine Marshall (D) 46
Jack Sawyer (R) 36
Cooper and Marshall should be locks.
Agriculture Commissioner:
Steve Troxler (R) 44
Ronnie Ansley (D) 38
Labor Commissioner:
Cherie Berry (R) 42
Mary Fant Donnan (D) 38
Troxler and Berry start out with the lead, but will be vulnerable if there is a tidal wave of new straight ticket voting Democrats.
Insurance Commissioner:
John Odom (R) 37
Wayne Goodwin (D) 36
Mark McMains (L) 10
Superintendent:
June Atkinson (D) 44
Richard Morgan (R) 37
Full results here.
Beth Wood (D) 46
Les(lie) Merritt (R) 34
Wood has shown a strong lead over Merritt three polls in a row now so I don't think this is a fluke. I find this so curious. Steve Troxler and Cherie Berry are doing fine in the polls so it's not a universal problem with Republicans. Why is an incumbent in a low profile race doing so poorly? If anyone can give me a non 'Democratic talking points' answer I'd really like to hear it. One problem for Merritt is that he's getting only 62% of the Republican vote- is there some reason people in his own party don't care for him?
Lieutenant Governor:
Walter Dalton (D) 40
Robert Pittenger (R) 36
Phillip Rhodes (L) 6
Dalton is still holding onto a small lead. As I've said before, if he can compete money wise with Pittenger spending from his personal fortune, he should be fine.
Treasurer:
Bill Daughtridge (R) 41
Janet Cowell (D) 40
Daughtridge has shown a small lead three months in a row, and once again unusual support for a Republican from his 252 area code seems to be making a difference. He and Cherie Berry are the only Republicans leading there.
Attorney General:
Roy Cooper (D) 50
Bob Crumley (R) 35
Secretary of State:
Elaine Marshall (D) 46
Jack Sawyer (R) 36
Cooper and Marshall should be locks.
Agriculture Commissioner:
Steve Troxler (R) 44
Ronnie Ansley (D) 38
Labor Commissioner:
Cherie Berry (R) 42
Mary Fant Donnan (D) 38
Troxler and Berry start out with the lead, but will be vulnerable if there is a tidal wave of new straight ticket voting Democrats.
Insurance Commissioner:
John Odom (R) 37
Wayne Goodwin (D) 36
Mark McMains (L) 10
Superintendent:
June Atkinson (D) 44
Richard Morgan (R) 37
Full results here.
NC Governor: Perdue vaults forward
Bev Perdue 46
Pat McCrory 37
Michael Munger 6
Since the primary one poll after another has shown Bev Perdue and Pat McCrory basically knotted, but Perdue has now opened up a solid lead.
Most of the movement appears to be among Democratic voters. Last month Perdue had just a 68-19 lead with them. That figure is now 76-12, and the 15 point increase in her lead among folks in her own party accounts for most of her gain. This may be attributable to her recent endorsement from former opponent Richard Moore.
Perdue is winning the black vote overwhelmingly while trailing McCrory by just seven points with white voters. Any Democrat who can keep the Republican lead among white voters under double digits is likely to win statewide in North Carolina.
Pat McCrory has lost some of the luster off of his 'change' message in recent weeks with revelations of large amounts of out of state money being spent on his behalf and news of a letter sent to lobbyists to help in raising money for his campaign. He'll need to turn it around quick to keep the race from getting away from him, particularly with Perdue's large overall fundraising advantage.
Full results here.
Pat McCrory 37
Michael Munger 6
Since the primary one poll after another has shown Bev Perdue and Pat McCrory basically knotted, but Perdue has now opened up a solid lead.
Most of the movement appears to be among Democratic voters. Last month Perdue had just a 68-19 lead with them. That figure is now 76-12, and the 15 point increase in her lead among folks in her own party accounts for most of her gain. This may be attributable to her recent endorsement from former opponent Richard Moore.
Perdue is winning the black vote overwhelmingly while trailing McCrory by just seven points with white voters. Any Democrat who can keep the Republican lead among white voters under double digits is likely to win statewide in North Carolina.
Pat McCrory has lost some of the luster off of his 'change' message in recent weeks with revelations of large amounts of out of state money being spent on his behalf and news of a letter sent to lobbyists to help in raising money for his campaign. He'll need to turn it around quick to keep the race from getting away from him, particularly with Perdue's large overall fundraising advantage.
Full results here.
Michigan Governor 2010
Dick DeVos 44
Dennis Archer 42
Dennis Archer 41
Terri Lynn Land 38
Dick DeVos 45
John Cherry 36
Terri Lynn Land 40
John Cherry 34
For the second month in a row PPP tested four possible match ups for Governor in 2010. You can see last month's results here.
Although it is incredibly early some trends are emerging. Dennis Archer has done better than John Cherry in all four hypothetical match ups and looks to be the stronger candidate at this point. Whether that's due to greater popularity or simply greater name recognition is up for debate.
There are also signs that Dick DeVos might be in better shape with the Republican base than some of the other possible Republican contenders. DeVos earns 77% of the votes of self identified Republicans against Archer. By comparison, Land gets 65% and in last month's polling we found Mike Cox at 60% and Candice Miller at 53%.
Archer has a lot more room to move up in his match up with DeVos than the 2006 Republican nominee does. 16% of Democrats report being undecided while just 5% of Republicans do, and Archer currently receives just 59% of the African American vote, a number that seems bound to increase.
Full results here.
Dennis Archer 42
Dennis Archer 41
Terri Lynn Land 38
Dick DeVos 45
John Cherry 36
Terri Lynn Land 40
John Cherry 34
For the second month in a row PPP tested four possible match ups for Governor in 2010. You can see last month's results here.
Although it is incredibly early some trends are emerging. Dennis Archer has done better than John Cherry in all four hypothetical match ups and looks to be the stronger candidate at this point. Whether that's due to greater popularity or simply greater name recognition is up for debate.
There are also signs that Dick DeVos might be in better shape with the Republican base than some of the other possible Republican contenders. DeVos earns 77% of the votes of self identified Republicans against Archer. By comparison, Land gets 65% and in last month's polling we found Mike Cox at 60% and Candice Miller at 53%.
Archer has a lot more room to move up in his match up with DeVos than the 2006 Republican nominee does. 16% of Democrats report being undecided while just 5% of Republicans do, and Archer currently receives just 59% of the African American vote, a number that seems bound to increase.
Full results here.
Michigan President/Senate
Barack Obama 46
John McCain 43
The race has tightened in Michigan since PPP's last poll, with Barack Obama losing support from Republicans and white voters.
PPP's June Michigan poll showed 19% of self identified Republican voters crossing over to support Obama, but that figure has now been reduced to 9%. Obama also now trails 50-40 among white voters after holding a two point lead with them last month.
With Michigan almost evenly split between Democrats and Republicans this is one state where the race could really come down to the choices of independent voters. While only 8% of Democrats and 4% of Republicans are undecided, 20% of those who don't identify with either party are.
Who are these independent voters? Compared to the general population they are disproportionately female, 46-65, and white. They support Obama by a small (42-38) margin in this survey, but also support Democrat Carl Levin for Senate and possible 2010 gubernatorial candidate Dennis Archer for Governor at a much higher rate than the rest of the population. These could be former Hillary supporters who aren't ready to jump to John McCain but are ambivalent about Obama. Maybe Obama and the Clintons need to spend more time campaigning in Michigan together.
Overall Levin continues to hold a dominating lead over Jack Hoogendyk, 54-35.
Full results here.
John McCain 43
The race has tightened in Michigan since PPP's last poll, with Barack Obama losing support from Republicans and white voters.
PPP's June Michigan poll showed 19% of self identified Republican voters crossing over to support Obama, but that figure has now been reduced to 9%. Obama also now trails 50-40 among white voters after holding a two point lead with them last month.
With Michigan almost evenly split between Democrats and Republicans this is one state where the race could really come down to the choices of independent voters. While only 8% of Democrats and 4% of Republicans are undecided, 20% of those who don't identify with either party are.
Who are these independent voters? Compared to the general population they are disproportionately female, 46-65, and white. They support Obama by a small (42-38) margin in this survey, but also support Democrat Carl Levin for Senate and possible 2010 gubernatorial candidate Dennis Archer for Governor at a much higher rate than the rest of the population. These could be former Hillary supporters who aren't ready to jump to John McCain but are ambivalent about Obama. Maybe Obama and the Clintons need to spend more time campaigning in Michigan together.
Overall Levin continues to hold a dominating lead over Jack Hoogendyk, 54-35.
Full results here.
Tuesday, July 29, 2008
Movement in the Governor's Race
Kim Genardo broke our newest Gubernatorial numbers tonight on NBC-17. Watch it here.
Full Council of State results tomorrow.
Full Council of State results tomorrow.
Florida Senate
We are going to go with Bob Graham and Debbie Wasserman Schultz for testing against Mel Martinez in our Florida tracking poll this week. Thanks again for all the suggestions. I chose Wasserman Schultz because she got more 'votes' than anyone else and Graham because I think it is an intriguing possibility.
Ron Klein and Allen Boyd also got a lot of suggestions so I'll use them in our next Florida poll after that, and then ask for your input again come September.
Just a reminder that we did poll Alex Sink and Robert Wexler last month. The results are here.
Thanks again!
Ron Klein and Allen Boyd also got a lot of suggestions so I'll use them in our next Florida poll after that, and then ask for your input again come September.
Just a reminder that we did poll Alex Sink and Robert Wexler last month. The results are here.
Thanks again!
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