Wednesday, July 30, 2008

Council of State Numbers


Beth Wood (D) 46
Les(lie) Merritt (R) 34

Wood has shown a strong lead over Merritt three polls in a row now so I don't think this is a fluke. I find this so curious. Steve Troxler and Cherie Berry are doing fine in the polls so it's not a universal problem with Republicans. Why is an incumbent in a low profile race doing so poorly? If anyone can give me a non 'Democratic talking points' answer I'd really like to hear it. One problem for Merritt is that he's getting only 62% of the Republican vote- is there some reason people in his own party don't care for him?

Lieutenant Governor:

Walter Dalton (D) 40
Robert Pittenger (R) 36
Phillip Rhodes (L) 6

Dalton is still holding onto a small lead. As I've said before, if he can compete money wise with Pittenger spending from his personal fortune, he should be fine.


Bill Daughtridge (R) 41
Janet Cowell (D) 40

Daughtridge has shown a small lead three months in a row, and once again unusual support for a Republican from his 252 area code seems to be making a difference. He and Cherie Berry are the only Republicans leading there.

Attorney General:

Roy Cooper (D) 50
Bob Crumley (R) 35

Secretary of State:

Elaine Marshall (D) 46
Jack Sawyer (R) 36

Cooper and Marshall should be locks.

Agriculture Commissioner:

Steve Troxler (R) 44
Ronnie Ansley (D) 38

Labor Commissioner:

Cherie Berry (R) 42
Mary Fant Donnan (D) 38

Troxler and Berry start out with the lead, but will be vulnerable if there is a tidal wave of new straight ticket voting Democrats.

Insurance Commissioner:

John Odom (R) 37
Wayne Goodwin (D) 36
Mark McMains (L) 10


June Atkinson (D) 44
Richard Morgan (R) 37

Full results here.


Anonymous said...

Love your polls. However, would you consider including party identifications. Especially for the Council of State offices and the out of state 2010 tests I have trouble keeping track sometimes.

Unknown said...

I find the Auditor numbers terribly curious as well. The only explanation I have is that I've literally seen Beth Wood in almost every county in the state, talking to the party faithful, so perhaps that fairs her well. What makes it even more curious, though, is that she fell $250 short of qualifying for public campaign financing, whilst Merritt did. Very interesting race between the incumbent and his former employee.

Anonymous said...

Though both Republican candidates for Treasurer and Insurance Commissioner are barely ahead of their Democratic counterparts by one percentage point, the margin of error (more than 3%) makes those races a statistical deadheat so the Democratic nominees are not necessarily behind. It's basically a tie in this poll, it seems. In fact, I would contend that the Democrats are actually in a better position ultimately because turnout for Democratic candidates is expected to be much higher than normal for the 2008 cycle ...

Also, both Wayne Goodwin and Janet Cowell are criss-crossing the State every day, every week. Very little is seen of the Republican candidate for Insurance Commissioner. Goodwin, the Democratic candidate for Insurance Commissioner, for example, is receiving more news coverage around the State than most of the candidates for these down-ballot races all put together, certainly by far more than his Republican opponent who owns three muffler shops and has no experience or qualifications for the office.

Once key endorsements begin to emerge and there is more attention by the public to these offices, the numbers will likely change further.

Just my 2 cents worth.

Anonymous said...

Regarding Les Merritt's poor performance, I postulate two potential reasons:

First: there is some scuttlebut that the Auditor is more interested in his personal private work than the public work of being auditor.

Second: while the Auditor is focused on so called corruption cases, there is a sense he has given short-shrift to making sure government agencies are managing their money using acceptable accounting standards. By focusing on the gotcha game, the traditional and arguably more important work of helping manage taxpayer money has languished. Anyone who runs a business knows this is critical and knows what an auditor should be doing to help that business run. Merritt doesn't relate to buisness people this way.

Anonymous said...

Beth's lead in the polls over Leslie Meritt, corresponds with her large margin of victory over Fred Aiken in the primary. If memory serves me correctly, Beth had the largest margin of victory in the down ballot races for this year's primary. I suspect that Leslie Meritt will have to go negative to narrow the margin, and if he does, how will that fare with the public? Especially, since he will have to use public financing to do so. I agree that Meritt's gotcha tactic, on top of his continuos infatuation with proving that the SBOE is somehow involved in voter registration fraud is hurting him, not helping. If he had been doing the job of an auditor for the past four years, would the state be facing so many accounting problems: DHHS, SHP, etc? The reason why Wood is so far ahead could just be a simple answer - people want change!

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