Thursday, September 13, 2007

Election Scorecard: Carolinas Poll

It's not often that we get a chance to gauge the true accuracy of a poll. The only time it can really happen is after Election Day. At no other time is a true census of opinion ever conducted. Tuesday was the first Election Day in North Carolina since this blog was started.

Charlotte held its Republican Mayoral Primary on Tuesday with only 5% of eligible Republican and unaffiliated voters turning out. Incumbent Pat McCrory defeated challenger Ken Gjertsen, 67%-33%.

So how did the Carolinas Poll, conducted August 15-19, fare? They predicted a 70% to 17% victory for McCrory. If you distribute the undecideds proportionally the result would be 80% to 20%.

80-20 vs. 67-33. That's not really close, but they got the big picture right; McCrory in a blowout.

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