Thursday, February 7, 2008

Democratic Tracking Poll: Governor

Bev Perdue 45
Richard Moore 31
Dennis Nielsen 4

Perdue and Moore went on the air last month and since then the number of undecideds in the race has dropped. But the movement in the race hasn't really helped one candidate or the other- Perdue is up 4% from last poll, while Moore is up 6%.

The Moore campaign has to be frustrated. When we started polling this race 13 months ago Perdue had a 12 point lead. In the time since then, for all the policy proposals and attack videos and tv ads both campaigns have done, there has been little movement in the margin between the candidates. Each campaign has increased its support- Perdue from 32% to 45% and Moore from 2o% to 31% compared to last January, but there has never really been any movement in the margin.

The Moore campaign has a bunch of smart folks working on it and that's a good thing because unless they have some tricks up their sleeves for the last three months of the campaign Perdue seems likely to win by that same 8-12 point margin she's held pretty much continuously since this campaign launched.

Key findings:

-Moore actually leads 40-37 among unaffiliated voters, not surprising since he has fared better than Perdue in polls testing possible general election match ups.

-Perdue leads Moore by only seven points among white voters but has a significant 56-19 lead with African Americans. The black vote could be the difference maker in this race, and Perdue has consistently shown more strength there than Moore.

-Perdue leads in every region of the state except Charlotte and is particularly strong in her home base of eastern North Carolina, where her edge is 59-23.

Full results here

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