Robin Hayes' internal polling says he's losing to Larry Kissell.
I don't have any insider information to that effect, but there's no way he would be leading off his media campaign with a negative ad all the way back in June if that wasn't the case.
Hayes ran negative ads against Kissell in October last time, and Kissell didn't have the funds to respond as effectively. Hayes just barely managed to pull out the win.
Hayes clearly think he's even more vulnerable this year, and the even worse news for him is that this campaign will be fought on a completely different playing field with many more resources available to Kissell than he had the last time around.
Unless things turn around nationally between now and November, Hayes will be cleaning out his office come this fall.