Monday, June 2, 2008

Tracking Poll: North Carolina President

John McCain 43
Barack Obama 40
Bob Barr 6

John McCain 39
Hillary Clinton 34
Bob Barr 6

Obama is down 3 after trailing by seven when PPP polled the race three weeks ago. Clinton is down 5 after trailing by eight the last time time PPP surveyed the contest.

The most interesting story here is the effect that Bob Barr has on the race. Against Obama he gets 6% of the Democratic vote but just 4% of the Republican vote. Against Clinton he gets 5% among both Democrats and Republicans.

That may seem to run counter to the popular perception that he will siphon off Republican voters, but digging deeper into the numbers it appears that he actually does have the expected effect.

For instance in our last poll, John McCain received 25% of the Democratic vote against Obama and 17% against Clinton. In this survey, McCain is at just 16% and 14% with Democrats in those two matches. So it appears the Democrats Barr is gaining the support of may just be those who weren't intending to vote for the party's nominee in the first place- he's eroding McCain's Democrats more than Clinton's or Obama's.

Barr also appears to be pulling a lot of support from conservative leaning independents. Last month McCain led Obama by 15 points among independents. Now Barr is pulling 9% with those voters and McCain's lead over Obama is down to 3.

I doubt Bob Barr is really going to pull 6% of the vote come November, but if he does it will be good news for Barack Obama.

Full results here.

4 comments:

Rasmus said...

"If the candidates for President were Libertarian
Bob Barr, Democrat Hillary Clinton, and
Republican John McCain, who would you vote
for? If for Bob Barr, press 1. If for Hillary
Clinton, press 2. If for John McCain, press 3. If
you’re undecided, press 4."

Did you rotate the names?
Otherwise I think Barr got 6% just because he´s mentioned first.
And do you have any numbers if he got more support when mentioned first?

The Oath said...

Rasmus,

I seriously doubt that someone who doesn't know the names of the individuals is going to select Bob Barr simply because he's first. In fact, stating that he is a "Libertarian" is likely to push the voters away.

Jordon M. Greene said...

They left out, of course, Chuck Baldwin. Chuck Baldwin is the Presidential candidate of the Constitution Party, the nations 3rd Largest Political party (bigger than Libertarian) according to voter registration. Baldwin will be a Write-In candidate in North Carolina because of NC's unconstitutional and unequal ballot access restrictions which violate free speech.

REMEMBER you can still vote for Chuck Baldwin. You can learn more about Chuck Baldwin at his campaign website at www.Baldwin2008.com

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