Thursday, June 12, 2008

New Rasmussen poll

Rasmussen's new poll for WRAL is out, and it's another indication that the race could be close in North Carolina and that Bob Barr could be making an impact.

John McCain leads Barack Obama 45-43, which I think makes this the closest poll we've seen yet. The survey didn't specifically ask about Bob Barr, but 6% of respondents expressed support for 'other,' with 5% undecided.

The race is within the margin of error either way but I almost wonder if Obama would have had a small lead in the poll if Barr and his party affiliation had been named directly. It seemed like the presence of Barr knocked 3-4 points off of McCain's lead between our last poll without him and our last poll with him, and I can't imagine the 6% who said other in this poll were all specifically thinking of Barr.

Since the only 'other' choice in North Carolina is going to be Barr, that's why we're including him and not the blanket 'other' choice in our polling of the race.

WRAL hasn't posted the full crosstabs from the survey on their website yet but if they do I may have some analysis on them later.

2 comments:

Rasmus said...

In April, Rasmussen had a poll out with McCain and Obama tied.
But since then, this is the best result for Obama in NC.

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