Monday, December 1, 2008

Georgia Runoff Results: Chambliss still leads

Saxby Chambliss 53
Jim Martin 46

PPP's final Georgia runoff poll finds overwhelming support from white voters likely to result in the reelection of Saxby Chambliss.

Chambliss is up 71-28 on Jim Martin with whites. For Martin to win the runoff with that performance, the electorate would have to be 34% African American. Given that it was only 30% for the general election with Barack Obama at the top of the ballot and that early voting was less than 23% black, that does not seem particularly likely.

Chambliss is up 58-41 among those poll respondents who reported having participated in early voting, not surprising given the overwhelmingly white nature of those who have already cast their ballots. Martin will need an incredible Democratic turnout at the polls tomorrow to make up for the deficit he goes into election day with based on early voters.

Martin leads with voters under 45, but trails 68-31 with voters over 65. Senior citizens are the most reliable group of voters and likely to make up a larger portion of the electorate than they did on November 4th for this comparatively low interest election. That's just one more hurdle to climb for the Democratic challenger.

Full results here.

17 comments:

Anonymous said...

I know that the sample size for those who have already voted is small, but do you think the fact that your earlier poll (plus others) showed Martin ahead among early voters was just noise, or if there was a shift in the electorate since?

Tom Jensen said...

Noise probably

Placeholder said...

All of this explains why Obama didn't campaign there. His people must have told him that, for all the talk about a huge black turnout for him in the general election, it was strong but not particularly overwhelming, and that in the runoff that blacks would revert to their customary apathy.

Thus, even a lot of effort by Obama would have resulted in a loss there, which would have detracted from his clout. Better to pull back and let events take their natural course. Chambliss will win this one in a landslide.

Anonymous said...

If Obama wouldn't show up (for even the smallest chance he could help) because he was afraid he may look less powerful, that speaks volumes about him.

PriceBeLow.NET said...

PROBLEM WITH Georgia is that it is TOO Partisan and Racially Divided! Just Look at the kind of support for Chambliss an "ineffective" low life Senator and Draft Dogger. Look at the support for the man that has FAR MORE dignity and put his life on the line fighting for this nation! 72% of whites support the low life Chambliss compare to 28% going the Other way! JUST DISGUSTING! SHAME on You Georgia!!

Bart Gibb said...

I assume, than, that PriceBeLow.Net voted for McCain, Obama being an ineffective (vote "present") Senator and McCain a "man that has FAR MORE dignity and put his life on the line fighting for this nation"?

Anonymous said...

yeah bart gibb---he certainly couldn't have been referring to cleland

then again, looking at the overall tone and intelligence of the post, i'd probably guess he was a obama supporter and am not surprised that you're probably one considering your comprehension problems

Anonymous said...

Oh it has to be all about race huh PriceBeLow.net? Shame on you for stereotyping conservatives as racists.

Anonymous said...

Based on your statement, shame on you for voting for Obama then PriceBeLow. If you are basing the integrity of a man by whether or not he served his country, you picked the wrong candidate. AND I wouldn't get into "low lifes" if I were you. Rev. Wright, William Ayres....are you kidding????? Do you even know the "Other" candidate's name?

Anonymous said...

If it's a "disgusting shame" for 72% of whites to support a white candidate, what is it when +97% of blacks support a black candidate? Shame on you for making everything about race.

Anonymous said...

To Mister "Georgia is Disgusting"...Um Both Candidates are White. And Sen. Chambliss won, so HA!

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Did you hear the good news? Chambliss is making it better for us already! Most people don't realize how much money there is out there. During economic times like this, there is more money to be had than ever. Because of the bailouts and economy, lenders are bending over backwards to bail you out too. Believe it or not, there is people getting tons of cheap money nowdays to start businesses, buy homes, pay off debt, and more. Bailout is for YOU

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